Club Mulgoa

Wednesday, September 28, 2011

The Dow initial performance

I watched the Conspirators last night and when I checked the Dow when it opened, I was amazed it went up by 100 points. Sure enough, when I woke up, it was down 179 points. All the financial problems are still there. Lazy Greeks, indebted Yanks, Japs coping with natural disasters... and China winding down. Currently, the real cause are European politicians who are not receptive to criticism for ineffectual effort. And Obama doing a lousy job; good with the gap but appalling with his fiscal/Middle East policies.

Because commodities were used as financial football (hoarding to create a bubble), the sell-off can be vicious and abrupt. While bubbles can be inflated rapidly, the reverse can be overdone too. Big central banks hold gold for its perceived value. If all sell at the same time, gold would drop precipitously. But if gold is held behind vaults, then the price will rise. There is only that much gold produced every year unlike USD which can be printed. It has a long history as a hedge. The current turmoil is in a dynamic phase. I suspect gold is being sold off to realize cash; as well as commodities. When one massive sell starts, the rest have to be follow so that it is not the last one to sell.

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/markets/gold-silver-dive-in-cash-rush/story-e6frg91x-1226150966393

Me? I daren't touch the market at the moment. Sell and it will rise. Buy and it will fall. Good time to do more gardening! But always on the look out for bargains!

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