Club Mulgoa

Saturday, October 08, 2011

The market is a circus trampoline act

The markets around the world are behaving like trampoline performers in a circus. The difference is there is a hole in the market trampoline and you don't know when you are going to fall through it.

The Greeks are still lazy and haven't resolved to work harder (instead they are striking and protesting). Long term job prospect in the States is still awful. And Japanese are hardworking but the progress is still hampered by the natural disaster. And China depends on Europeans and Yankees buying their goods; the internal economy is nothing like America's.

In early August 2011 when share markets were plunging but POG was rising, it was easy to spot the winners. But currently, it is near impossible although POG seems to be holding above USD$1600 per oz. I speculated on GUF because of its Mongolian coal that the Chinese want and its coal in Galilee Basin that lots of Indians want. Unfortunately, logic does not matter, volatility and sentiment rule the game. Only takeovers (or speculative takeovers) can cause a jump.

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