Club Mulgoa

Saturday, January 09, 2016

Market logic

There isn't much logic in how to invest these days.  And there are even more lemmings around.

To fuck the Iranians and to stiffle US shale oil producers, the Saudis are selling their oil so cheaply that the Iranians cannot make large gains from their oil output and the Americans cannot compete with their more expensive production.  Perhaps the Saudis have a bottomless oilfield.

The Aussie banks have not gone bust.  Property prices have not gone made and people are still paying off their mortgages.  There are fewer new loans but it takes 10-20 years for most borrowers to pay off their mortgage.  Overnight, the banks are not going to lose profit.

Gold was a safe haven, then it wasn't... and now it is.  But it is still near its low but has not dropped lower so it is a 'safer' haven.  Einstein's Theory of Relativity applies here too.

Hence, while the energy sector is severely damaged by the crazy Saudis, the economy should be laughing at the low energy cost!  China should be happy with the low oil and commodity prices.  American economy has now progressed to the point where zero interest rate is no longer required.

These days, China sneezes and Australia gets the cold!  However, due to my gold stocks, my portfolio has not crumbled as badly...  Bad but not as bad.