Club Mulgoa

Thursday, February 28, 2019

ASX Announcements

This is the best thing financially since sliced bread.  Brokers used to be privy to this information ahead of the average investors.

Now, no matter how much clout, how big an organization and what access you have, the ASX announcement is a real level playing field.  You can do costly research with the manpower and expertise available to you.  But when the announcement is out, everybody has equal opportunity... unless you have insider information.

I hardly need any broker's recommendation other than to confirm my own reading and logic, if it is available for free!  And many brokers ignore the small caps.  They also ignore companies with shady ownership which is where JIN is an outstanding example.

JIN only has a narrow range of ownership and nearly all are nominees too.  And one private company seems to be in control with under 25% ownership.  However, if the board is capable of good chronic profit for ALL the shareholders, why be troubled by it?  And its products are household names!

Tuesday, February 26, 2019

ERM amd AMI

Both announced quite incredible grade and thickness of gold veins discovered recently.  Unless you make a profit, market is only superficially and temporarily interested.  There is always an initial jump and then the share price drifts back.

I have topped up on ERM after it fell back and I wonder which idiotic investors are selling on such good announcement about new discovery of gold.  And I am also waiting top up more with AMI if some of these silly investors appear there.

Today, I notice ERM  jumping to over 8c from the 7.2c that I paid for recently after it tracked back.

Thursday, February 21, 2019

APT Z1P

Both are in the same line of business with minor variation between their modus operandi.  Both were in the limelight recently, having to appear in a Senate Inquiry in Brisbane.  Both are waiting for the outcome.  Both had been doing well in Oz and APT is expanding fast in the USA.

So when Z1P announced its financial report today, it shot up.  But APT has been down in the last two days.  It is reporting next Tuesday.  Usually these two companies move in unison so it is surprising that their share price went the opposite way!

I have been topping up on both; Z1P has been up while APT has been down!

Wednesday, February 20, 2019

SYD

Experts advising SMSFs told attendees recently to buy overseas shares to avoid problems with franking credits when Labor government takes control.  Fucking idiots!  Not all independent senators agree with Labor's policy anyway.

It is more expensive to buy overseas shares.  And more expensive to sell too.  And not easy either.

The problem for SMSF is not getting their credits back in cash but at least there is dividend imputation still with Labor policy.  With overseas shares, you cannot offset them.  My UK shares are taxed there (company tax) and I get taxed again in Australia (personal tax).

However do you collect the dividends in foreign currency?  You need to convert to AUD and that will cost you!  Or you could start a bank account for each country you invest in.  Have you ever tried to open an overseas account?  If others are collecting for you, you have another fee to pay.

If you buy unit trusts that invest overseas, a big chunk of your profit is swallowed up by the fund managers.  And many are very lazy at doing any research and they just hug the index... and get paid a huge commission.  If the overseas shares value goes up a lot, they want a bigger commission for doing "well" when they are doing nothing extraordinarily.  But if those overseas markets fell, they will tell that there is nothing they could do. And that is bullshit of course.  And they still keep the same high commission/fee!

I would tell the attendees to look at SYD...  It has no franking credit and you will have to pay tax on the income you received so there is no Labor government to deal with.  It pays a decent dividend, generated from reliable profit, year after year.  The dividend is higher than interest from bank deposit.  It has an airport monopoly for another 10 years before Western Sydney airport is opened.  Yet, commuters will still prefer the nearer airport!

And yes, there are still some well-run property trusts that pay higher than interest from deposits but I don't invest in those funds.

NWL

Gutsy and logical... or foolish and lucky?

NWL had been tumbling.  It fell so badly that I went from strongly profitable to net loss.  When they announced their financial position just a few weeks ago, not being an accountant, I didn't think it was awful but it got dumped... big time!  But this stock has been one of my biggest top-ups and I kept buying a few times.  And each time, I wonder if I have made a stupid move and yes, each time, I felt silly when the share price kept falling or remained stagnant.

Obviously someone can see value in NML!  And it has been going for a sprint lately giving me a 24% net rise now.

Monday, February 18, 2019

AMI

This used to be my small parcel... but suddenly it spurted.  Then it issued a share purchase plan at about 24c.  Now at around 90c in a short time span.

A few days ago, it announced a spectacular gold find...  followed by today, a very nice financial report.  Big jump in profit and good prospect.  Yet the share price fell!  Maybe, the figures are not good enough or below expectation.  But then no broker research this stock!  So, who are the sellers?

Hence I bought more of AMI... at 87.5c.  Maybe it isn't smart but logically, it is irresistible!

Wednesday, February 13, 2019

CTP

https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20190213/pdf/442l09c5w3z17y.pdf

I bought into CTP a long time ago.  But it floundered in spite of its very promising future.  The CEO, the founder, was sent packing.  Then Macquarie Bank tried to take it over but small shareholders managed to expel its ambition.  Well, that is the first hint that CTP is valuable!  I am still at a loss but whenever I buy now, my average buying price is dropping!

The CM of NT has allowed fracking in these fields in Central Australia.  That is another sign that will increase the value of CTP.  Is fracking harmful?  Definitely if it is done by a cowboy.

If you read the article above, you will really wonder why big institutions are not piling into this company.  Basically, there is now a pipeline ready to transport gas to where the demand is by connecting to existing network.  To transport gas from the NW of WA is currently too expensive as there is no pipeline; distance is a huge disadvantage there.  As of today, this is my priority stock for growth and hopefully, for income in another few years.  Fat Prophets in trying to convince to jump onboard their newsletter and financial advice, has recommended SPK and ORA.  Both look decent but my JIN has outperformed them in the last few days.  Too early to make any conclusion.

Based on what I read, ie the announcement by CTP yesterday, I expect it to be the growth stock for 2019 and the years after.  There is constant reminder of gas shortage in the eastern states of Australia.

So when you tally up all these factors, I bought more CTP yesterday at 14c.  And I will pile a lot more in soon when I have spare cash.

There is also helium in some of those fields...

Monday, February 11, 2019

EDE and TAS

TAS is the parent company of EDE.  And EDE has the most compelling technology which is grossly under-rated by the market.

It splits methane; the carbon molecules become carbon nanotubes (CNT) and the hydrogen becomes a gas for burning into energy.  Currently the carbon nanotubes are used for reinforcing cement with superior property over conventional cement using steel (or other substitutes).  Other uses are slowly being developed; not enough cash at hand!

Hydrogen when burnt produces what???  Water!!!  No carbon dioxide and no other pollutants.  But because of its flammability and ease of causing an explosion, it is not used a lot.  Hythane (the propriety name for its hydrogen business) is making very slow inroad.

I still cannot understand the overall apathy from the markets (local or international).  If I am a Chinese company, I would take over EDE and TAS by paying a premium for it and it will still be a bargain.  The technology is too good to be true!  Tests after tests in the USA and Korea now have shown how good the CNT cement is.  In fact, in Georgia (USA), the state government insists that any concrete used in a state-funded road must contain a certain percentage of the CNT cement made by EDE in America.

Wednesday, February 06, 2019

Broker recommendations for AMI, JIN and FBR

I am amazed that I have 3 big parcels in 'unrated' stocks, that is, they are ignored by brokers.  They don't do any research on them according to CommSec.

These are JIN, AMI and FBR.  My early buys on JIN and AMI have more than doubled in value.  That made me reluctant to top up as the share price had jumped so much.  But I did top up recently and still doing well! 

However, it dropped the overall rise to under 100% for JIN but still over 238% for AMI. 

FBR has been all over the place but the prospect looks extremely bright again.  After ditching Caterpillar or is it the other way around, the share price plunged.  That gave me a good opportunity to top up again.