JIN
According to Morgan Stanley, this stock is worth $20. My first purchase was $1.45 a few years ago. There were a few top-up but nothing much for a long time. It has headed south before due to its failed foray into Germany. But since it turned its focus on Oz, the share price has been rushing upward.
Well there have been good reasons for the rise due to its popular online site for buying the lottery. But other than MS report, there has been nothing to account for the rise from $11.41 to $16.95 today. So, I say this stock is now overpriced.
However, I have said many times before 2019 that it had been overpriced for a long time but it kept rising. I decided in Jan this year to plough back into JIN buying big in Jan 2019 at around $7... and that has served me magnificently! That is why I had been topping up a few times even though the share price kept rising and it had been my biggest net purchase this year.
posted by Club Mulgoa @ 4:02 AM
6 Comments:
I thought it was very over-priced when I last topped up at $17.01. It is now $17.81.
People want to get rich playing Oz Lotto. I do too except I sit on the other side of the table; it is a lot more certain!
Early this year, I decided to plough back into JIN in spite of its persistent high. And this is one of my best investment decisions. Is it ethical? It is not in an illegal business. And punters are told about the poor odds of winning yet still enjoy the thrill of betting.
Tonight is a jackpot draw for $50M. The odds for winning is extremely poor which means the odds for winning for the operator of the lottery is very high. Whatever the outcome, JIN makes its money on commissions, secured via online betting. So it always wins but if no one wins, then more people will pile in at the next bigger jackpot lottery, leading to more commission earning.
Already, the share price of JIN today has factored that into consideration... (my assumption). It is now $18.49 at close. And if there is no more winner till the end of this fiscal year, it will be very nice to get a 'special' dividend. I love people who choose to gamble to lose! Yes, they choose.
Each time I buy, it has been near the peak. Last one was at $17.01 and it fell back! And then up and then back to under what I paid for. Suddenly, there was an upstroke and more upstrokes. Today it is $19.01. Crazy! Partly because no one won the $50M jackpot yesterday and the next jackpot is $70M drawing in even more punters!
Punters punt on winning... and I punt on punters losing... They get their thrill from the hope of winning and I get my thrill from the hope that no one wins the jackpot.
The odds are greatly in my favour. Chance of winning the jackpot in Oz Lotto is 1 in 45 million and in PowerBall, it is 1 in 134 million. The real winner is the State Lottery entity which owns the right to the lottery system. I punt on punters punting through JIN which collects a commission when a bet is bought on its online site. JIN has a licence to conduct the sale.
The more people lose with each draw, the bigger the jackpot... until someone wins, and the game start from ground level again. The bigger the jackpot, the more punters it entices, which results in more people losing. And the game goes on merrily.
It is truly a tragedy that instead of a bank, a miner or an infrastructure company that is my biggest super fund equity, it is a stock involved in gambling. Late last year, I decided to dump many resource stocks and took a plunge with JIN which had been rising and rising.
I try not to buy 'over-valued' stock but JIN kept going OVER over-valuations! I kept topping up, even recently as almost unwinnable jackpots kept enticing more and more punters.
This Thursday, the Powerball jackpot hits $110M and it will suck in almost every Aussies into punting. JIN gains via commissions... If no one wins the big one tonight, the next jackpot will lure in even more punters. Usually, I bet on losers.
Ask me not the logic behind the fall in share price of JIN for the last few days when no one won the $80M Powerball jackpot last Thursday. 9 people picked the 7 number combination correctly (out of 35 numbers) but missed out on the 8th Powerball number (out of 20 numbers).
I was still topping up frequently and found it a bit painful to see the share price dropping and dropping but today, all top-ups are positive, with share price at $20.65 at close. And if no one wins on Thursday, I am planning to celebrate with a 'free' dinner at Michaelangelo at the end of the week.
The irony is once banks, miners, energy and infrastructure dominated our portfolio. Today, JIN, a gambling stock, climbed on top, with many tech shares climbing over those blue chip stocks.
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