Club Mulgoa

Wednesday, August 03, 2011

Bad economy?

Markets cannot keep tumbling down. It starts to become valuable.... if the economy is not as bad. After Sept 11 and during SARS epidemic, the world contracted its activities. People don't fly, trade between country fell, conferences are cancelled, price of lobster fell.... Now that is real bad. Not what is happening currently. The USA is living above its means and creating wars that the world cannot afford by dragging in her allies. And of course, Greeks are lazy in Greece and Europeans have overvalued themselves.

Hence, I told my wife yesterday that the Dow will rally today. Also the AUD cannot rise forever; overseas investors will eventually pull out their money from the land of milk, honey, iron and coal.

There won't be spectacular runs either until the USA stops being crippled by its debt or China's internal economy is strong enough, not to have to rely on exports. Both are a long way off.

In the meantime, it will be gold, gold and gold. The Thai and Korean Central Banks have been buying billions of dollars worth of it to stabilize their currencies. Euro and USD notes might become cheaper than toilet paper. It is difficult to use plastic notes in the toilet.

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