POG

For a long time now, the POG was suspected to be manipulated.  After probes by UK and German regulators, it appears that a cartel of banks are involved.  Because of obvious pattern to the investigators, there is inferred evidence that there is major manipulation going on.  This benefits the banks and their clients.

Whether it falls or rises as a consequent, I much prefer an over the board and open system.  I am sure sooner or later, charges will laid.  There are people in the finance world, when shielded from scrutiny, who are extremely unprincipled and possibly immoral in how they make money at the expense of others.  And ruthlessly, too.

GOR

Yesterday, there was a good announcement and the share price leapt.  Today, there is nothing and the share price fell below yesterday's lowest!  Who are these people who are selling?  Is their memory so short?

GOR

It has been telling the market about its Yilgarn Craton for a long time.  And even dared to brag that this is a new gold belt.  I bought in too early so it has been a loss for a long time.  But today, it suddenly found the investors' attention.  But the share price will fall again unless a big boy decides to take it over.

BPT

In 2008, when it discovered an oil field in Egypt, I bought extra shares in BPT at $1.515 each.  It has been a miserable course since then with the GFC moving in.  That was the most expensive parcel of my BPT shares.

And in the recent past, BPT has been announced increased reserve, increased production and further successes (and failures, too).  Even more blatant, it even dared to announce a rise in profit.

So why is it such a surprise today and the share price jumped?  But like most stocks, I expect the share price to fall again tomorrow.  Investors memory is very poor.

PMI

I am not privy to PMI information.  The last figure was not great but I wonder whether the analysts are aware that last month, it was CNY!  But perhaps, it referred to Dec 2013 or the quarter before the current one.

However, it certainly confirms that we are changing more from a Yankee Poodle to a Chinese Shitzu.

Shitzu...

Once we were American poodles.  Now we look like Chinse Shitzus. Yesterday, around midday, the All Ords had a plunge, not a slide but a plunge down a cliff after China announced a not-so-good PMI (a measurement of manufacturing activity).

But the truth is, we are both kinds of dog.  Yesterday, the DJI went up by 0.60%, so the SPI is up!  Unfortunately, I have never seen a two-headed dog before so while the money comes via Yankee institutions, our long term valuation is a shitzu.  Soon, we will be eating with chopsticks; I already do.

CTP

It has been dismal recently but suddenly it is on the rise.  While there have been a few analysts writing about the potential of Australia's oil and gas resource, including shale gas, CTP with the largest acreage seems to have been forgotten.

GOR

It was very promising.  It discovered a new gold belt east of Kalgoorlie with lots of journalists writing about it, too.  Then when POG fell and credit becomes harder to obtain for miners, the share price also fell.  It fell badly.  But it continued to find more gold but not spectacularly so.

Today, it has risen to come very close to my average buying price.  So if I had practised what I normally do, I would have done very well with this stock!  My strategy has always been to top up with repeated good news when no one wants the stock.  But then I don't have a lot of spare cash!

NST

The best and most astute management of all the small mining stocks that I hold at the moment.  They bought just within the last 2 months, small operations of big gold producers at rock bottom price... and then the POG went up since.

Like the first mine, it was bought because the previous owner thought there was next to nothing left and NST found more gold.

Today, it found more good quality veins of gold so I expect the share price to climb further.  I have put in a small SPP on Monday because only $15 million will be raised by SPP so I am unlikely to get $15000 worth and I don't want to tie that kind of money down for a month.

Alpha

How do you calculate alpha?  Nice when the figures suggest you earned more than average.  But on days like today, it appears like there is no alpha.  What is obvious today is CBA was quoted post-dividend so I like to think that it is my alpha!

AVB

Great announcement today, great announcement a few days ago.

I have been wanting to buy this stock on the cheap after it fell following the first good news.  Yes, it fell after its initial rise.  Today, I upped my bid because it is crazy if it falls again.  The drilling result is too good for such a miserable rise, even today.  It might drop again but for me, it is worth the risk of that happening as in the longer term, this kind of drilling results do not happen all the time.

ABU

When it did its feasible study, I believe it used USD$1300 per oz to determine if mining is viable.  It has now hit USD$1320 per oz but the climb in ABU share price has been very lacking.  The initial rise after its trough has been good but not as much after POG jumped in the last week.

However, markets seem to response to tiny news dramatically and it is also very difficult to predict in which direction!

NST

This has to be THE best gold stock to invest in, based solely on management ability.  It bought a mine off from a bigger miner who jettisoned it for pittance.  While working on it, it generates an income to sustain exploration.  And if found more and more gold veins.

When the POG was near the trough, another big miner decided to ditch its smaller operations in WA.  And who should surface to buy them?  If this had happened today, there would be a big premium purely based on the rising POG.

These must be the most astute board.  It only invests at the right price and it only invests when it knows the prospects.

Unfortunately, the recent SPP is only limited to $15 million, so it was pointless to bid for the maximum amount as the scale down will be ferocious.  I took a smaller parcel... and wait to hear.

POG

The merchants who are controlling ETF trading in gold need to be accountable.  Currently, gold is traded on a big scale without the need for the physical metal being moved.  It is all imaginary.  Unless someone big demands its delivery, then the system will function as it is or if there is a major default and the whole system crumbles.

While I am pleased that the POG is rising, I dislike it when it is due to lemmings.  Lemmings can move upwards or downwards, and the change in direction can be erratic and irrational.  The POG provides me with alpha so the recent plunge to under USD$1200 per oz had deprived me of scoring above the average.

That is life; with no need for misery!  Wife continues to spend like I have just paid off my mortgage!

Investment strategy

This year, I have the privilege of collecting the Senior Citizen Card but only based on age criteria.  The possibility makes me ponder about my investment strategy, going forward.  This consideration is prompted by the recent plunge in speculative shares.  As one ages, the risk must be balanced against stability of one's superannuation.  Luckily, I have only very rarely sold off any of our blue chip stocks for fear of events like the recent clobbering of small resource stocks.  Like any small businesses, majority are not viable, and you rely on a small number of them to generate the huge gains to compensate.

While I will still invest in risky shares, there is now a need to put the money into investments with more secure returns without the roller coaster rides.  Most of my superannuation income currently is derived from 3 major banks, WES, ASX and SYD.  Miners generate only meager dividends.  Cash is producing pathetic interest earning.

POG

Still the best yoyo show in the world!

This AM it pips over the USD$1300 per ounce mark.  But I have no idea why.  That usually means tomorrow, it will fall.  POG is subjected not to supply-demand balance but by artificial trading of gold without the physical movement of the yellow metal.  Sooner or later, a respected international body will have to put a stop to it before a major default surfaces where physical gold is demanded by the buyer from the seller.

Today, I expect my gold stocks to continue rising...

NGE

With 850 million shares at around 2c each yesterday, it is only worth around AUD$17 million.  It has under AUD$20 million in debt.  But today, it announced that it is selling 50% of one tenement to STO for AUD$40 million.  How does the market value this stock at 2.4c?

RRS

It isn't a great day for the markets today.

But I made the right move with RRS.  Suddenly, it shot up today.  (Of course, tomorrow it will fall!).  I topped up at 2.1c last week but it fell to 2c.  BHP is moving into its territory so it is nice to be ahead!  It thinks that is where another round of big discoveries would be found.  There is a link with the Venezuelan oil fields... (the largest known oil reserve in the world).

GTE

It is rare to get a buy at the best price.  I did collect two parcels of GTE for 8.7c (someone else got it at the cheapest 8.6c the next day but only a small parcel went through at that price).  Then today, it has moved to 9.5c and ended at 10c yesterday.

My question is why did people sell when the drilling results have been excellent and decent with the most recent announcement?

Baffled

Once upon a time, if the Feds says there will be a trimming of fiscal stimulus, the DJI would just plunged.  That has always been my query.  If there is a trimming, it means the US is well on the road to recovery so it should be better and therefore DJI should go up.  Yet it had been going down.  However, now it is following my logic.

Big mining companies should be suffering now because commodities have plunged in value.  What I didn't considered was, because the big boys are not exploring, not developing new mines, not expanding.... suddenly the market knows they must be awashed with cash.  They have not stopped selling their products.  So now, while the value of their products have fallen, the stock markets will be rushing in to buy them!

Price of Uranium

The Russians had a contract to supply America with cheap uranium from decommissioned nuclear warheads until 2013.  Then on, there was supposed to be a shift in price upwards.  The fact is the price has come down.  So low that PDN had to shut down one of its uranium production unit.

Where are those so called experts who predicted that 2013 is the watershed year where the price of uranium will explode?

GTE

Today, my 2 parcels were the last trades!  And I got it at the cheapest for today.  I cannot understand why it is being sold when the last announcement before today's close is excellent.  I have put a low price but I went even lower after the recent >200 points fall in DJI.

The latest GTE (after close of trade) isn't that great but it isn't awful either.  Maybe someone heard that China's economy is stuttering... and I was blissfully ignorant.  However, the good news is the buy side is significantly higher than my bought price.

Cooper Basin

There is a lot of gas and oil activity in Cooper Basin.  Pity NSW missed out on it!

So far, there have been lots of good news from the bigger boys there.  DLS announced recently a rise in production (I don't own any share in it).  BPT has flagged a bigger profit.  However, in spite of all the positive news and lots of analysts claiming M&A activity, I can't say that share prices of my stocks there have been jumping.  I should be opportunistic but the market is so hard to read...

DJI and job data

There is no obvious logic.  And market really moves the way it wants to move.  I must be too naive.  When job figures are not that fantastic, you expect the market to remain much in status quo.  Yet, last night, the US market jumped.  And of course, the little brother, ASX, will follow suit.

RRS

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/mining-energy/bhp-to-put-12bn-into-new-oil-hunt-off-trinidad-and-tobago/story-e6frg9df-1226819003203

You need to be a subscriber to read that news.  However, you can tell that only today, in The Australian, you get the "lastest" news that BHP is spending $1.2 billion exploring oil in Trinidad and Tobago.  Strange that I got that news nearly a week ago!  And managed to top up RRS at just over 2c.  RRS has been saying for years about the Orinoco Delta (with the world's biggest oil reserve, ie larger than the one in Saudi Arabia) and its possible extension into Trinidad and Tobago.  Seems like you need the little boys to show the big boys where to go!  And the big boys take years before they listen.

POG

POG is providing the best yoyo show in town.  Up and down, up and down, down and up, etc.  But what is pretty obvious so far is that there is a floor.  It never went below USD$1200 per ounce for long.  Many small mines are not viable unless its gold is hedged.  If mines close, then supply will diminish.

Yes, the market will plunge today as fund managers will simply follow the DJI (and getting big fat pay irrespective of performance).  However, as the POG is actually up and AUD is steady, I don't expect my plunge to be as drastic.

SPI down nearly 100 points

We are still the USA's little brother, politically and financially.  And in fashion, media, entertainment, etc, etc.

Last night DJI took a big tumble.  The data coming out are not nice so investors took an axe to Wall Street.  China is currently asleep with the Chinese New Year celebration.

I had to amend my bid price for AVB and GTE; both reported good drilling results lately.

This arvo, the RBA will announce the interest rate which is expected to stay the same.  Hence, the property market will go crazier still.  The lemmings will be buying up properties.  I will be hunting for value as the markets cannot keep dropping.  Good stocks are sold along with bad ones.  VLA is looking for more capital to fund its late stage product testing.  Every thing is going well so far.  A similar stock was taken over for more than USD$1 billion to show the potential.  What VLA management didn't want is an opportunistic bid by a large pharmaceutical.  VLA's clinical result appears to be superior to that other stock.

Property price

People are not thinking with their head!   The tumbling stockmarkets around the world are a major sign that something nasty is going to visit the property market.  There is a cycle.  Yet, people are moving money from equity to property, encouraged by low interest rates.  House prices have been shooting through the roof and idiots are bidding way over what they can afford when interest rate rises.

When the stockmarkets crumble around the world, there is less money available for people to buy property so eventually the cycle will depress real estate prices.  I hope we don't have to use tax payers' money to bail out those idiots who are taking up huge amount of debt currently.

RRS

No wonder the price of RRS went up today.  There is a new head and 2 new directors.  All sounded like they have great credentials.  But I bought because the only information available to me was BHP wanted to explore the area that RRS already hold tenements.

Overall, I am still at a loss but it is nice to know the top-up I did last week was done at the right time!