Club Mulgoa

Thursday, April 11, 2019

SPI up when US is indifferent or down???

There is no logic for SPI to be up when we are the sheep dog for the Yankees.  In addition, the price of oil is down, and gold too.

Who derives DPI and how?  The logic does not compute!

JIN

According to Morgan Stanley, this stock is worth $20.  My first purchase was $1.45 a few years ago.  There were a few top-up but nothing much for a long time.  It has headed south before due to its failed foray into Germany.  But since it turned its focus on Oz, the share price has been rushing upward.

Well there have been good reasons for the rise due to its popular online site for buying the lottery.  But other than MS report, there has been nothing to account for the rise from $11.41 to $16.95 today.  So, I say this stock is now overpriced.

However, I have said many times before 2019 that it had been overpriced for a long time but it kept rising.  I decided in Jan this year to plough back into JIN buying big in Jan 2019 at around $7... and that has served me magnificently!  That is why I had been topping up a few times even though the share price kept rising and it had been my biggest net purchase this year.

NWL

Today, I consider it to be a good announcement when there is a big increase in the amount of fund under management.  But that includes inherent increase in the value of the fund.  New fund is still coming in but there appears to be something negative which I can't understand.

So NWL got punished today.  However, like the previous announcement, investors are expecting miracles.  The punishment went on a bit longer the last time and then when it turned, it was a very marked uptick.  Well, when it fell today, I rang my bell!  So I topped up a bit today.  Foolish?

Wednesday, April 10, 2019

Vanadium

Vanadium batteries last a lifetime.  They don't deteriorate like lithium ones.  However, they are bulky and cumbersome at the moment.  They were seen to be the future for energy storage and there are very few vanadium mines around.

That made them very appealing to invest in.  I did notice that their share prices have been crawling though.  And recently, faith in vanadium must have crumbled because the price of vanadium has fallen steeply.  Ouch!  So luckily, I decided to sit and watch.

NASDAQ and Aussie tech stocks

Since I switched out of resource stocks into tech stocks 18 months ago, it has been most rewarding.  Not all tech stocks are profitable and when they fell, it can take down the average badly.

Today, overnight NASDAQ went up by nearly 0.7% while S&P crawled up 0.35% and DJIA only 0.03%!  The different trajectories between non-tech and tech stocks have caught my attention recently because I noticed that in our portfolios, the tech stocks are leading the charge.  Had it not been for them, the blue chip stocks (other than BHP and RIO) had dragged the overall performance down badly.

Sooner or later, a finance journalist in the prominent papers is going to highlight this so that fund managers will reshuffle their mix to reflect the rise of Aussie tech stocks.  There is not a separate stock exchange for them.

In 20 years, when I am decrepit, I worry that our portfolios would be left in the 2010's or 2020's and no longer generates any income!  By then, I may have to surrender our portfolio to those greedy fund managers!

Energy stocks

If logic applies in the short term, I would be a far richer man.

The price of oil is rising because of the civil war in Libya.  Yet the two oil majors in Australia, OSH and WPL, have not been sought by investors.  And it rose again last night.

While EV is the in-thing with politicians, the truth is far more conservative.  People will only switch when there is a critical volume and the infrastructure is there for re-charging an EV.  And of course, the cost of buying and running it has to be lower.  Caring for environment?  No, caring for the hip pocket.

Tuesday, April 09, 2019

AD8.. and NAN

https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/two-small-caps-with-long-runways-of-growth

I have no idea where I first read about AU8 but it has now made me more than 60% profit within a short time.  I also have no idea how it runs its business except that a lot of big companies use their software.

Hence I am also interested in NAN!

Saturday, April 06, 2019

SYD and ASX against APT

I accumulated SYD a long time ago and it has provided me with very nice unfranked dividends, being an airport monopoly (for another 9 years).  It appeared unassailable by other stocks, and is still my most valuable equity as a single entity in our super fund.

However, not far behind because of its galloping valuation, APT will soon be expected to leapfrog over SYD.  Our other portfolio has another monopoly as the most valuable stock.  ASX has been accumulated over many years.  It too will be overtaken by APT before long.

And it won't be long before the tech stocks that I have switched into, will soon dominate our portfolios as the old blue chips either stagnate, wither or crawl on.  However, until the tech stocks start to pay (out of profit), I am still holding onto income producing shares... as we near retirement age.