Club Mulgoa

Saturday, February 26, 2011

SDL

I sold it a long time ago. Decent profit. But why did I sell?

The timing wasn't great as the share price went up and up after that but it has been falling from its peak. And the reasons for the recent fall are the reasons why I sold. Its Fe deposit is in Cameroon. High risk location, both in sovereign and geographic (but you can't ask Ken Talbot to verify that but he confirmed it) terms. It is far from China and India (shipping around the Cape of Good Hope) but nearer Europe.

Fe ore needs railways to carry bulk goods, not piddly ones to carry passengers. The deposit is so far inland. There is no port to handle it yet. The infrastructure cost is phenomenal. Someone in Hotcopper pointed these factors out. I sold before Chinese interest moved in but they obviously haven't done their cost homework properly.

Currently, even the estimate has over-run! I bought when it was under 10c a piece when hardly anyone talked about SDL and before Ken Talbot did.

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