Greenstone belt

What is greenstone?

http://www.minesite.com/companies/comp_single/company/eleckra-mines-ltd.html

All I know is greenstone = gold deposits.

And it is shown in the Kalgoorlie area. And I have invested in another greenstone belt, a bit further away in Kenya, Aviva Resources.

Beating a tipster

Usually, I am behind RB or this chap http://asxguru.com.au/2010/09/ Read his thoughts on AVB and VOR.... and many others. His research is more detailed than mine.

But I was ahead with AVB and between RB and the ASX Guru for VOR. I am going to top up more of VOR if the price is down today. Similar to ASX Guru's comment on AVB, I cannot understand why the market price for VOR is so low. China is next door and VOR (like GIR) have so many areas to explore. Already they have found 'stuff' but still the Australian investors are ignoring it. I am very glad!

The market capitalisation of AVB was $36 million. Vale is going to pay AVB up to $40 million if Fe ore is found on its neighbouring tenement. Yesterday in the ASX, $26 million worth of AVB shares changed hands. Something is going on. But like many things, fast up can mean plunging down.

AVB

By day end, AVB is 9.6c. Wow! Who are these people who bought?! The share price has gone up from 2c in August 2010. I just bought AVBOB last week and it is up >50% already. I am impressed with myself! This company gave me most of my alpha today. The market is down but my portfolios are up :-) Now, that is a good day!

And tomorrow is a good day too! Michael Cox is in NZ so he has made Thursday a whole day off for me. Now I make more money when I am not working in the theatre.

ALY

Nearology has always been a great selection tool... especially if it finds gold or any mineral. ALY is next to SFR and its share price has been falling. Around SFR, virtually every tenement has shown a rise in share price. CYS fell when its "anomaly" didn't contain any anomalies!

Today ALY announces more gold find... and the share price was stagnant. This is like a red rag to me, the Bull. There is more drilling to do. SFR's Conductor lodes abut against ALY and should continue into ALY.

How difficult is it to decide whether to buy ALY or not? I just went in straightaway and bought at market price.

NGM

Lucky escape! Twice!

I hit buy button when I wanted to sell. Ooops but the share price came back so back to square one.

Then I decided to sell NGM on the market at 15c rather than take up the takeover offer from PDN. I didn't want to wait and I don't want 2 parcels of PDN. But yesterday, PDN decided it does not want NGM so the share price plunged today to 9.2c.

There is nothing skillful here; just pure luck :-)

AVB

I sold 100000 AVB shares to contribute to the purchase of 200000 AVBOB. AVB has only reported half of their recent drilling results; the rest pending assay reports from the lab.

Today, it rockets upwards again because Vale (3rd biggest mining company in the world) is paying it an "advance fee" for the rights to Fe ore in its neighbouring tenement.

Wait till the next lot of results come out! AVB has already hinted it is thick with copper. And from soil sampling, the other anomaly and tenements are expected to have good grade of copper, too. Don't believe the board? Not surprised after being burnt by CDU! But one bad outcome does not mean every company board is unreliable.

This company is my current star performer. Buying prices: ABVOB at 5.3c (last week) and ABV at 2 and 2.1c (within 2 months). The parcel I bought at 4.9c has been sold at 7.4c. Currently, AVB at 8.5c and AVBOB at 6.5c. Why bother giving anaesthetics?! For humanity/intellectual challenge and to be spoilt by lovely nurses, of course..... It is true because investment intellectual challenge is trivial compared to medicine.

Incidentally, 6ULDV8 (a person who posts in Hotcopper) also recommended MMR, AFR, NSE, MNC and GDY.

Of course, market can fall. But all things being equal, it is much easier to earn from the ASX :-)

Investing principles

My architect said that he cannot understand why doctors do not want to pay for architectural expertise when buying their biggest investment. Instead they use 'lesser' (read "cheaper") minnows in the building industries, like draughtsmen and builders. Same thing for financial investments. But there is a difference. The architect concentrates on your project for that period of time. The financial advisers look after many portfolios. And they cannot monitor the portfolio as sharply. And the big firms do not look at small companies.

Hence, this week I quit Morgan Stanley Smith Barney. My own portfolio has outperfomed the bloc which was given to the big firm to look after at 1.5% commission.

When a big firm makes a decision to buy or sell, it has to do major research work. This takes time yet decision sometimes has to be made quickly when an announcement is made on the ASX. My assessment is simple and quick.

People will often buy a share, see it falls and condemn it to the drawer. Yet, if it has good value/management/prospect, then one should top it up! Patience is still a virtue in investment.

Sometimes, there is a gamble. Nearology, historical mining, seismic study, gravtity scanning, trenching, rock sampling and other anomaly surveys can all suggest possibility of success. But it is not necessarily accurate. There is also unanticipated geological or political problems. And company board can manipulate data and inside information can disadvantage the unsuspecting investors.

I have been buying when share prices collapse with good announcements or no announcement. And buying when that commodity price is stable or rising. Hence, I have been able to do better than most. Yes, even more than as a doctor recently but share investment does not provide as much stability.

Investment in shares worth next to nothing

I didn't bother with much research when investing in MDA and VOR today. The share prices are so low and when I looked at the trend over the last 3 years, the share prices are near the bottom. And RB had spoken... so I just invest. I don't have time to do research work while I am working.

I also looked at AKM, it is looking for coking coal, this is not for energy but making steel. RB has spoken and it is under 15c. Nice when someone has done the preliminary.

Please look at VOR... you will be surprised why it is under 2c. And next door to China! RB gets his readers to bring these small ignored companies to his attention.

Mongolia

This is the new "West Africa". Why? Because China is next door and Korea, Japan and Taiwan is only the next step away. Oh yes, there is Russia as well but Russia does not need anything from Mongolia. News are flowing through that there is a rush to peg land for exploration. And late comers will have to pay more. Read http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/mining-energy/miners-in-mongolian-land-rush/story-e6frg9ex-1225929699360

and you will realise how ignorant Australians are. Most probably don't even know there is a country called Mongolia nor this bloke called Genghis Khan. In the recent weeks, I have invested in HUN, GMM, VOR and AKM (last 2 today, based on RB's article). Wish me luck for I might be an early fool! None doing well but then it is uncommon for shares that I buy to jump immediately... although sometimes I am lucky. RIO and Ivanhoe have invested a huge amount of money into Mongolia... and have not made a single cent profit. So I can be patient. In fact BHP even pulled out!

Performance

Most funds have not recovered from pre-GFC state. Because I invest in high risk stocks, my own portfolio came out badly. But what is remarkable is the recovery. The blue chips rarely double or triple within a year. Lowest for BHP in 3 years is $20, ASX is $23, RIO $23.59, CBA $24, WOW $22.85, WES $14.24, ANZ $11.83, NAB $15.85, STO $9.33. And a lot have not exceeded their pre-GFC highs.

These are stable stocks unlike my uranium and some mining stocks which melted away and some options are worth less than toilet paper (which can be used once and become fertiliser after going through my septic system).

However, my rescue came with good mining stocks, the likes of GIR (low of 29c, now $2.80), EXT and AND. And buying West African and Indonesian miners and topping up better miners. There are some let downs but if I only invested small sums in most of them so they are not as disastrous. CDU and EXM are my big letdowns but I hold hope for RAU. The performance has streaked ahead of the risk factor, helped along by price of gold rising and multiple good announcements. The good announcements are not unpredictable. That is why seismic study, gravity scans and various exploration techniques are used before expensive drillings. They are not always right but I take calculated risk.

So next month, I take over my Morgan Stanley portfolio, keep the blue chips for stability and use the cash for my own portfolio. I have been outperforming the expensive city brokers by a wide margin... and I am only a gasman who does simple arithmetic, with no financial training other than from my 'poorly' educated father. The big city brokers have been bypassing me for placements and other capital raising too because they are not interested in anything under a million dollars. I think I will invest some with Patersons which gives smaller investors a bit of the cherries. It is involved with a lot of mining placements and floats.

AUQ

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20100914/pdf/31sh31xnb9pd2f.pdf

When I read AVB announcements, the company had already implied how good the grades are... with more to follow and some areas/tenements yet to be fully explored. And soon the share price shot up when 'figures' were revealed. Not 'shot' but 'rocket'.

If you read my notes on AUQ, today I re-read the announcement and it is very similar to AVB. Native copper has been observed in the drilling in Oman and they only need to confirm the grade by assaying in Australia. Oman is quite far away. When the grades are announced in a fortnight, the market will respond... predictably unless sentiment over-rides logic and unless copper price crashes.

I think, even with the share price up, I will top up some more on next week provided the share price has not accelerated away from a bargain hunter. Good luck for anyone who wants to go for a calculated ride....

SBL

If you have read that link on PIR you would have noticed that SBL is on the EV/Resource oz and g/t chart. PIR has gone up > 4x but SBL? Presumably no one read and no one noticed. And SBL has found something else.

http://imagesignal.comsec.com.au/asxdata/20100908/pdf/01096122.pdf

Market behaves strangely. There is a placement but why hasn't the share price climbed like other West African miners over the last 6 months? I think they are all waiting for me to buy some more at a low price... and I have. The price can go up now.

MLX

Just before a well-known tipster (Diggers and Drillers) suggested KAS, I went for MLX instead. Why? The grade in Tasmania is much much better than in Morocco. Because he is well-known but Club Mulgoa is known to only less than a handful mini-investors who do not invest, the price of MLX is up 8% since I bought a week ago while KAS rocketed up by 50% on Friday. The price of Sn has been rocketing up and the press does not think it is a bubble but a matter of supply not keeping up with demand. I wish I bought KAS and then switch to MLX! That tipster had also tipped VMS, another Sn explorer in Oz.

PIR

Here is an example of free information... and previously sent to my readers. By the time, I bought, it was 12c and 13c for the two parcels.

http://www.colonialresources.com.au/images/stories/100401_Papillon_PIR_-_Undiscovered_West_African_gold.pdf

And you would kick yourself for not reading AND not acting on it. I can also do you the honour! Of course, not all articles are predictive. It was sent in a note on Apr 11 2010. But please read my lament, too. The share price quoted in the article was 9c. PIR was 41.5c at close on Friday and received a speeding ticket from the ASX. I bought some PIROA and it too went up by nearly 9% by close. AVBOA went up so I gave it a miss and spent the $$$ on PIROA instead.

Of course, the ASX has gone up since April 2010 but not by more than four times :-) And don't tell the wife that you didn't buy either ;-) Even DH didn't know about this stock :-) or he would be singing like me. Tweet, tweet, tweet, tweet, tweet... plus DJIA is up, AUD is up, POG is up.

Tweet, tweet, tweet, tweet, tweet... more rewarding than watching footy or cricket or structure collapsing/shit everywhere in New Delhi. Em... there is inside information in cricket, too!

HEG

The biggest trick in investment is to move ahead of market sentiment. Sell before others do and buy before the mass do. However there is no logic and it is unpredictable (not by me). But I can do simple maths. And I can collect the information for free... and early... and decide fast. My main problem is that I don't keep a lot of $$$$$ (unless I sell or get super contributions). Wife controls it.

You have an AUD that hovers between 96c and 88c USD and a gold price that kept going up. And you have a gold producer and explorer that kept feeding good news... and yet the share price kept falling. So I topped up at 8.8c and it went even lower! Now, there is serious buying and it has crept up to 10.5c over 10 weeks.

There is a God who understands arithmetic. But I have virtually no followers... :-(
... just the occasional reader(s).

Good day at the market

Didn't buy any AVBOA because the share price of both ordinary shares and options went up. But I did buy PIROA and it too went nearly 10% higher at close. I have cleared the deck with AND because I don't want to exchange it for any Canadian shares as a result of the takeover. Nice to have some cash but there are SPPs and entitlements around the corner.

Today is what I call a beautiful day at the market. The ASX is down but my personally managed portfolios are up. I am definitely doing better than my city brokers. It is quite phenomenal how many companies, have gone up by >50% within a year but the market has only really turned since 30th June 2010.

AVB

This AM, I re-read the 'exceptional high grade' announcement. The market has already lost interest in AVB and today, I expect a further fall. Yet, only half the drilling results were released. More to follow when the assaying has been done.

This is only from one deposit in the south (open ended, too!) and there is another large anomaly to the north in the same tenement with soil tested and found to have copper at >500ppm. Just as impressive is another tenement further north with great copper and gold grade from previous channel samplings (best is 4.3m with 8.9%Cu and 48g/t of Au).

Read the details yourself but if the share price dips, AVBOB is very appealing for further top-up for me (I prefer buying the options AVBOB - cheaper (good for arbitrage) even after exercising them). This is no longer a high risk investment because the large amount of high grade copper has been found. The risk is whether the price of Cu tumbles due to failing world economies. The dickhead who discovered Carajas (the world's largest high grade Fe ore open mine) should be castrated for not pegging or buying up the surround tenements a long, long time ago. They are all rich with minerals and gold.

http://imagesignal.comsec.com.au/asxdata/20100921/pdf/01099900.pdf

LYC

http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/Lynas-Corp-LYC-rare-earths-Japan-China-Non-Ferrous-pd20100923-9K9AY?OpenDocument&src=sph&src=rot

This article will show you what I mean about having faith in some companies. I could have ditched my parcel or believe in the company's strategy. It almost got swallowed up by a Chinese state company for next to nothing. Luckily there are still some smart Aussies around... including moi :-)

CTP

Oh no! It is a capital raising. That is almost certainly bad news. You don't get to buy any cheap share if it is a placement. This is the most inequitable aspect of investment in Australia. I am surprised that the Labor Party has not put a stop to it. Similarly, for buybacks, where only super funds or people who pay very little tax, benefits. Those who pay tax? Well, screw them!

CTP

Trading halt. Because of an impending announcement. That means either very, very good news or very awful news. We will know on Monday. I topped up yesterday....

DRA

If you think you have missed on gold, is there any value left in the ASX? Well SBL has a rights issue and placement at 2c and its share price fell. I topped up a small parcel. DRA kept announcing good extensions of its gold in Scandinavia, it is a PRODUCER, it is buying back its share, it is consolidating its share and yet, its share price continues to dangle around 13c.

PRU, PIR, GRY, AMX and even RSG, CRC, ABU and CGX have gone up.

Today DH has spoken about BCN and SGZ so we will see what happens tomorrow. Also VLA.

The Philippines

This is not the first time that I have invested in the Philippines. First time, I got out in time to make a profit. The company nearly went bust later. Next was OEL but the oil wasn't as good as expected so lost money but still hopeful. Next time was CGX and I am happy to report a good profit now. And today, I got rid of a small Fe ore explorer (going to be robbed by Uncle Wayne and Aunty Julia) and bought NDO. I am creating a lot of paper work for my wife. Ooops!

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20100922/pdf/31sncd921n1q06.pdf

Read about the low risked drilling and its potentials. Too good to be true? Feel like a fool today...

AVBOB

It costs 1.5c to exercise an option. AVB is 7.4c now and AVBOB is 5.3c. So after exercising AVBOB into AVB, the total cost is 1.5c + 5.3c = 6.8c. If you sell AVB at 7.4c, you make 0.6c per share. The options do not need to be exercised until April 2012.

This is called arbitrage. If you only make 0.6c per share but you have bought a million of it, then you are looking at $6000 payment for keyboard exercise. Yes, I have just bought 200,000 of AVBOB at 5.3c and sold 100,000 AVB at 7.4c. This is only partial arbitrage but I don't have cash for a million shares :-(

Basically, today, I bought 100,000 AVBOB and after exercising it, I am still paying under 10c per share, ie 6.8c for a Cu bonanza. Again, I could be a fool. The other 100,000 (top-up) was bought for 4.9c yesterday morning after the good announcement and sold for 7.4c this afternoon. Only a fool would make $2,460 (after commissions, pre-tax) in one day for keyboard exercise :-)

AVB is next door to Vale's most lucrative Fe ore mine and the biggest in the world (I think). Say no more. Vale is going to pay AVB for royalty if Fe is found in that tenement and AVB does not have to pay for exploration.

CTP

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20100922/pdf/31sn0yhsr34cfw.pdf

Don't ask me how to read a drilling report. But if there is a 98m oil column within 128m of hydrocarbon with no water, under the ground, then it must be significant. Yet CTP is below my average buy price. I bought when there was only hype and seismic studies suggesting oil, gas and He. Now when oil has been discovered (but not quantified), the share price is lower.

Em... what kind of logic is that? Because I missed out on buying AVBOB, I have shifted the money to CTP. But don't buy CTP if you have no stomach for losses. Because a 98m column of oil is just a column. Will it flow up and out? What is the extent? Inshallah! I only know that a 98m column has been found and CTP is only 11c. Good to live simply and calculate only using simple arithmetic.

Indonesian gold

DH recommended ROL. After my freebie from TRF, I topped up twice (when good announcements were made and there was no mad rush for the shares). ROL continues to find good gold hits (plus other base metals) so I am a happy lad. If people are selling it, I am happy to be an owner of more shares because good news = more gold in the ground. So simple to invest!!!!

And look at SIH too. Loss, loss and loss for me for a long time because the market totally ignored it. During GFC, no one wanted it when it makes good announcement. The SPP in July 2009 was only 2.5c and I must have been the only fool who bought. This is now a big chunk of my portfolio because it has gone up by 320%. How can the price of gold remain stable during GFC and more gold has been found, and yet, the share price goes below 3c? So simple to make investment decision... no city brokers required. I am sure if my father has been alive, with just 2 years of education, he would have made the same purchases.

Indonesia is laced with gold and volcanoes. As usual, the best time to buy is when no one wants to know the good news and no one wants to buy during ugly sentiment periods.

AVB

Still people buying it at 8c so my original parcel has climbed 4 times :-)

My top-up at 4.9c yesterday has also made me a 60% gain within a day. I tried to buy some options today but missed out. Went to the Opera House to watch a rehearsal. You have to be privileged to watch it... I don't think even Terry Clarke gets that ;-)

By the way, you can 'buy' the privilege by donating to the Opera House... Mrs Tey does that.

MNC

Who is BGF? It has just given a Frontier Exploration award to MNC and gave it a tick. I have never read the report but it apparently says it is the Perseus of copper. Wow! It even dares to predict the huge rise in share price. I bought it recently because it is cheap for what it has already found in the ground in South America. Price hasn't moved. Copper price is the wind wand for world economies.

AVB

I am going to transfer my thoughts to www.clubmulgoa.blogspot.com

Then no one has to open my notes. And you choose when you want to read. At the moment, I don't know whether my blog has a privacy lock or not. Let me know if you want to enter if you are stopped by privacy control.

Sad when my choices go up and no one buys or hardly anyone buys. Maybe no one read anyway on the day it is posted! The West African miners, which I harped the most on, are way above ASX average. ELM is >80%. Even GIR is creeping up. Of course, neither DH, RB and I can get everything right. But at least the average is over the market performance.

At 1545h, my AVB has gone up to 6.8c. This afternoon when I topped up, it was for 4.9c. I was already lamenting how silly the market is that AVB is under 5c. Yes, under 5c. By close, it might go even higher. In one arvo, my AVB has gone up by >$10,000.