KAS

Picked up a small parcel of KAS at 22c today. Markets are falling again. But price of tin is still high and inventory is diminishing. Fundamentals look good but investors never follow logic. Wife is not traveling at the moment... so I am glad the AUD is falling below USD$1.06.

KMC and LSA

At its lowest point, I received a question asking me that if there is one stock he should buy, which one should it be. When I saw LSA plunged to 70c due to some idiots selling, I wrote that this is THE one to get and do it quickly before other buyers jump in to pick the available cheap shares.

I had already bought some earlier on that morning at a higher price. So I put in another bid and collect more at 70c.

Today, within 7 months, it has peaked at over $1.10. The numbers in announcements and company information are so easy to decipher. Why people won't buy is a mystery to me. There is another stock in the same shoe... KMC. This one has fallen and fallen and is still below my last lowest buy price. Why idiots are selling? You will have to ask the contents in their rectums.

Pure Speculation and Our Man in Oz

DH hasn't had a great run in the last year but then markets haven't done well either.

I still like my top two tipsters. RB gives foresight and Our Man in Oz gives very brief yet critical analysis in simple language that I can comprehend.

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/opinion/three-long-time-battlets-are-still-in-the-race/story-e6frg9ex-1226256674622

http://minesite.com/news/that-was-the-week-that-was-in-australia-318

This morning, I am enlightened by RB's upbeat assessment of RAU and KAB. These are heavy losses which shouldn't be. I hope he is right and maybe it is time to top up since the parcels have become small in value but large in number of shares.

If you read RB, notice another drumming of the future of potash. He didn't harp on phosphate at all. Potash miners (all explorers so far) have been my best sector performer in the last 18 months.

KAS VMS

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/opinion/tin-trounces-forecast-with-69pc-price-hike/story-e6frg9ex-1226255162566

Both my tin stocks have fallen drastically. Neither are producers but it won't be long (how long is 'long'?). Based on that report, I will have to start stocking up on it. Once the economics are out, I expect both these stocks to start digging, one in Morocco and the other in Tasmania.

Tin is rarely recycled. Soldering quantity/plating is so small. And it is not a common base metal. And lead is no longer permissible in soldering. Only tin...

Chinese from China - the ones with cash in hand

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/mining-energy/chinese-likely-to-buy-25pc-of-browse-lng-project-from-woodside/story-e6frg9df-1226255759966


Before long, everything in Australia could be owned by China. Once upon a time, it was the Yankees, then the Japanese and for a while Singaporeans. I am glad that at least the Chinese can see values where Aussies can't. Luckily I bought WPL a long time ago so I can still taste profitability.

I am not paranoid about Chinese businesses investing in Australia. Profitability is good for everyone, provided taxes are paid, jobs are created and there is long term planning out of that wealth. My only concern is that Australian governments are only capable of short-term thinking, specifically, no longer than 3 years. What a bunch of overpaid mediocrity!

Food production... phosphate and potash

As the Chinese and Indians become more affluent, as the world population grows and as arable land diminishes or degrades, the more the demand for potash and phosphate to increase the productivity of farms and orchards.

DH touched on PWN so the share price shot up and then another shot with this announcement.

http://www.proactiveinvestors.com.au/companies/news/24591/potash-west-assays-show-broad-potassium-intercepts-at-dandaragan-trough--24591.html

After its IPO at 20c (via IMA) in May 2011, I topped up twice within about 2 weeks because the share price fell below the offer price; first at 17c and then again at 19.5c. Now it is 27.5c. Happy as a sprout! Potash has been one of my most successful strategies for investment in the last 18 months, triggered when BHP signaled how important the commodity is when it made a bid for a Canadian potash company. Read the news! But more importantly, read in between the lines...

CDU

Is this true? Placement to 2 entities or their nominees at AUD$4 per share. The issue is not underwritten. But the market price is only $3.60! Placement higher than market price? Are those fools or do they know something?

One thing for certain. Those entities will end up with a significant ownership of CDU. And if it is true that they are willing to pay that price, then CDU will not remain at under $4 for a while in future.

Dead cat bounce?

Something tells me that the cat has nine lives. It looks like a kitten might be starting to purr again.

Whatever the reason, copper is moving up again. If the economies are dying around the world, copper inventories would pile up. No, it is falling so the price of copper is going up. Copper is one of the best markers for an economy that is booming again.

You need money to buy gold. The demand, especially in China is rising rapidly. There is money around.

Oil price rose because of expectation of a major confrontation in Iran. The Iranian government would be so stupid to take on NATO... and the rest of the oil producers that use the Straits of Hormuz. In fact, the Saudis are keeping the price of oil at around USD$100 per barrel and that will help with recoveries around the world.

American economy is slowly finding its feet. Plenty of blue chips reporting good or decent results. Where Ford and GM once nearly collapsed, they are profitable again.

Shale gas is bringing back life to decaying parts of the USA because of cheap energy. So cheap that shale gas companies are falling in price themselves.

European bonds have not tumbled and the Italian and Spanish governments were able to raise capital without having to pay exorbitant interests on them.

But re-enter the market only if you have got guts... and after you have done your own research. I buy throughout the cycle... but I am picky. Always looking out for idiotic or desperate sellers.

Alpha

Today is what I call a good day. The market follows my logical argument. POG goes up so gold stocks should rise. But if you ask me why the share prices go up based on performance for gold for just one day, that would be an excellent question. The truth is POG has been going up for a while now, yet the share prices have not elevated as fast.

Pity I missed RMS by a bare minimum; it has rebounded nicely. It was unbelievable people were marking down gold producers when the POG has been inching upwards.

TAS

TAS is being funded by RIO to drill in South Australia near Olympic Dam. Based on surveillance already performed (gravity and magnetic anormaly), it is expected to be bigger. Of course, you need to drill, and drill deeply and extensively to confirm that estimation. No small miner has that financial capability so when RIO came along, it put a booster in the share price.

But investors' memory is very brief. It has started to drift down again. I put a lowish bid in at 11.5c and only managed to collect half of what I wanted. Drilling has probably started at Lucas Hill (not the JV tenement with RIO) and will take more than 2 months to get a result. This deposit is very deep. Watch this stock. If it is successful, then the share price will fly very high but the reverse can happen, too.

Only consider this stock if you have spare cash and the stomach to handle a near obliteration of the share price if it fails. But this is only one tenement...

RMS

Put a slightly lower than market bid recently and just missed another parcel. With POG rising, gold stocks will be up today. No regret about missing the top up. But I just cannot comprehend the mentality of idiotic sellers. Who is giving them money to throw away? Or perhaps, I am too naive to understand.

When Tokyo Stock Exchange average PE ration was sky high, the Japanese investors were telling overseas fund managers that they don't understand the Japanese market. Some PEs were over 1000. Well, fundamentals ARE fundamentals whatever the colour of the skin or market sentiment. History has shown that Japanese investors are still being punished. Momentarily, the Japanese market was worth more than the US market.

I am a very basic investor with simple knowledge of primary school arithmetic, with no accounting background. But I read.

ARX

Here is another stock where local politics have interfered with its exploration. Locals are protesting and all the government does is to revoke its license to explore. The lesson is miners cannot go into an area without engaging the locals. Politics is like vomitus when you are not nauseated; after you chuck, you often feel better.

ARX will be consigned to history temporarily but that is the 'thrill' of buying stocks in funny country.

POG

POG is still heading upwards but then the USD is falling. More dollars being printed, presumably, so that Uncle Ben doesn't have to increase interest rate!

Some of my gold shares have fallen very hard but some have risen very high too. How do you know which one is heading which way? Sometimes, both camps are announcing good finds or good figures. Yet, the divergence can be astonishing.

I put some lowish buys on Wednesday for a few stocks that have fallen badly but collected nothing as the market sentiment was up that day. Only one is a gold producer, RMS; the others are mixed (HGO and TAS).

POG

Why POG fell recently? The logic should be the reverse. However, in reality, the opposite can happen. I suspect, with a few journalists quoting the same opinion, that desperados sell their best assets to realize cash. Once you get rid of these idiots, then the real supply/demand cuts in again to determine the market price for gold.

While AUD has risen over USD$1.05, the POG has shot higher to USD$1700 per oz. This usually means, the share prices for gold producers, and often the explorers as well, will rise on Friday. But logic would say, it is illogical to move based on one-day change in POG.

Yesterday, I got rid of EVR. I don't like managements that use Cayman Islands. Too shifty for my liking. I like board members to have some social conscience. Paying appropriate tax is a symbol of civility... and it marks the character of the people running the company. Making profit without contributing part of the profit, adequately, to the society is immoral. A scheming board is likely to scheme profit from the shareholders for themselves.

EXT

I have hardly harped on this stock. Yet it is one of my best performers (over 650% rise since 2006, including the expensive entitlement in 2009). I only highlight a stock if you can buy into it. I have hardly topped up because it has been rising ever since I bought it. And for the last 2 years, it have stagnated. There was an entitlement at $7.75 in Oct 2009.

Most of my profit is due to the only tranche I bought on the market. It was already known at that time when I first bought that there is a lot of uranium where EXT had been digging. And as more and more are discovered, the share price kept going up and up. I didn't find it cheap like before. So I never topped up (except for that hardly profitable entitlement) but I should have!

The Chinese have been swarming around this stock in the last year but I suspect RIO will step in at the last minute and snatch this stock from under their nose. RIO has a uranium processing facility (very expensive and it takes a long time to get it into production) only a short distance from EXT's tenements. The amount of uranium in the ground at Rossing is diminishing. So if you follow logic, RIO which already owns more than 20% of EXT is the one who can pay the highest price.

My wife will be happy, too. This is in her portfolio that I manage...

EVR from ADU

Late last year, there was a amalgamation of Endeavour Gold (Canadian) and ADU. When I saw where EVR is registered, I am going to sell it. I hate any stocks where the management has anything to do with Cayman Islands, Cook Islands, etc. I like honest management who pays whatever dues.

Luckily there is a small profit although it should be bigger.

LSA

http://www.proactiveinvestors.com.au/companies/news/24334/lachlan-star-record-11326-gold-ounces-produced-from-cmd-mine-during-december-quarter-24334.html

Produced over 11,000 oz of Au in the Dec quarter. The production cost has fallen a little. The market cap is AUD$51 million. It has plenty more gold in the ground and discovering more. Yet, today, the share price fell by 2c.

Some fathers have forgotten to send their children to primary schools. But they became fund managers! I can't wait to see the annual profit figure and I hope these sellers get crucified. Who knows these sellers could be connected and know something that fools like me do not.

The truth is I hope none of them get killed. I need them for the opportunities to buy stocks that are undervalued. I LOVE them but only when I am not forced to sell.

ABU

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20120119/pdf/423v01y1cjt6dx.pdf

And more gold and thick too but not very high grade on the average, with some zones having nicer grades. Still it is thick from 26m. The good news is the current exploration is deep and the end is still mineralized. And not just one drilling hole.

Why people are selling ABU at current price is still a mystery to me? Did they ever go through primary school?

AQQ

There is no idiotic seller for this stock because... there is no seller at all!

The entitlement is for 5.3c, so I put in a cheeky 5.1c if anyone wants to sell and then buy at a higher price!

This stock is worth so little... but it has more than 1 million oz in JORC resource. However, it is deep in the ground near Kalgoorlie. It won't be a producer till 2013. A bit long to wait!

LSA

http://www.proactiveinvestors.com.au/companies/news/24265/lachlan-star-eyes-super-pit-and-gold-reserve-and-resource-boost-at-cmd-mine-in-chile-24265.html

LSA is worth just over AUD$51 million; currently with a JORC resource of over 900,000 oz of Au. No description of Cu in that estimate. And then discovering more yellow metal and Cu. POG is over $USD1658/oz. Why the Chinese are not taking over LSA beats me! Just in case you have not been reading about LSA in my blog, it is a PRODUCER as well as explorer.

DRA

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20120118/pdf/423t9n1k23j0l1.pdf

Here is another gold explorer-cum-producer that the ASX investors couldn't care much about. It has recently transformed itself into a producer. And finding more and more gold. My last top up was in Aug 2011 at $1.13 when the ASX was hammered, but POG was up and AUD went down. What better reason for buying a gold producer?

So today, because of market sentiment and POG up (but AUD is now around USD$1.03 and USD$1.04), and with that announcement, it will go up and then... settle back again.

VOR

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20120118/pdf/423t79d4dz1gq3.pdf

Now you know why it has been rising and rising recently. How do you stop leakage of inside information? This stock is going to be eaten up by another company, most likely Asian-based.

I don't highlight this stock because it is difficult to buy when the share price kept rising and rising and rising. And when it falls, sentiment is so bad that in the short term, your spouse won't be happy with me if you bought.

I even ignored the rights issue.... because I bought it more AFTER the share price fell below it!

I have made more than 250% on this stock but I was lucky as it kept finding more minerals. However, if you have read what I wrote about Mongolian stocks, this is one that kept mostly going up.

STB

I didn't buy anymore STB when good announcements were made because the market just didn't like STB. Full stop. Everytime, I topped up, it fell. My huge profit was because of my purchase in 2008 and 2009 when it was worth pittance. But market sentiment has been against it, mostly because the potash is in Eritrea. BHP has tenements near STB's there.

I could not pick the trough. But the company picked it for me. As low as below 60c, few people wanted it in Dec 2011. Several tipsters have commented on how ridiculous it is. Soon after Our Man In Oz highlighted that fact, it started to turn. I could not buy because in the short term, it was going to languish whatever the announcements were and tipsters had said so many times how absurd it was. However, it turned.... Someone listened to Our Man In Oz. He gives his reports for free!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

At least, there is a rights issue at 55c. So today, I am submitting my payment.

ABU

It is just incredible how long it took the market to respond favourably to the run of good news from ABU. But that gives new investors lots of time to soak up its shares. What I cannot understand is who are these idiots who are selling? Do they follow up on their stocks or do they just sell because a profit had been generated, without consideration for a larger profit? It would not be greed but intelligence to sell it later after the market has digested the facts, anticipating that chances are that there will be a bigger gain.

I topped up 3 times in Dec 2011; a small one at 7.3c, a medium one at 5.5c and a larger one at 5.7c. Luckily, in the correct portion! How could it fall from 7.3c to 5.5c within 4 weeks? When idiotic sellers abound, for a strange reason, buyers stay away! Markets were very bad, then. Less competition for stocks, so it was great for me. But as far as I know, only one person who reads my note, was coerced (voluntarily) into buying ABU recently. Another one bought sometime ago... at a lower price.

It will take a few more good announcements to stir the lethargy in investors. ABU is off the radar for big and small investors alike. Personally, when you compare the quality of the recent announcements, I think it is still cheap. GMR soared when it hit good grade and thickness in Burkina Faso last week. Yet ABU's gold is near surface, with higher grades in some trenching results. Em... even the lethargy amongst my readers is pathetic! I have bought ABU a total of 10 times over the last 18 months, probably the most frequently of any stocks I own. Virtually, every time, it was because of good announcement with either indifferent or falling share price.

I learnt in Primary School that reading is good for you. But it is very sad that even after I have digested the facts and re-presented it, my readers, or rather those who are aware of my blog, are still mostly apathetic. ABU is my most frequently mentioned stock. To think that most, with access to my blog, have eaten, digested and assimilated the goodness of GIR.... it is appalling! Looking back, I think not all bought GIR!!!!

NEN

You hear about a stock, you buy it and then it tumbles. You can either discard it by selling or you can keep it and hope for the best based on what you have read.

Luckily I never discard NEN. Found gas/oil in the USA and now, an oil major is interested in taking a share.... or maybe a bite. Gone into trading half now so we will have to wait to hear. Its tenement is next to Exxon's in Vietnam where a major oil field has been discovered.

POG AUD and China

China GDP fell today but it fell less than expected so the markets love it. Hence AUD also went along for the ride, and POG, too.

As I said, I just love my alphas whichever ASX turns. Those who bought ABU should be happy. The nicer surprise will come when the actually drilling is down rather than trenching. However, one must never sound optimistic. Nothing to do with superstition. You can never tell whether it is going to reflect the surface scratchings. However, one CEO once said that if gold is found at the surface, it gives it optimism because it means at least gold is found even if the grade is low. It tells you where to find the rest of the gold. Yet ABU's grade is very high! Just the trenching samples are enough to generate kgs of gold.

But the not so good news is AUD creeping up. If you are exchanging AUD for other currencies, it is fantastic but the longer term consequence is not good for the nation's economy. Which is the chicken and which is the egg?

TRF

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20120117/pdf/423smkwgsl3vh9.pdf

With such a fantastic history, you wonder why TRF never explore any further after 2006. Management lost their interest or lost their tracks. One of the most interesting aspects of TRF is that there is a Canadian tipster that put it in their top 10 stocks for 2012, one of 2 ASX stocks in that list. It has an iron ore offshoot which I have sold for a nice profit (and it went higher of course!).

I can never understand how some companies operate and how investors value them.

European woes

This is not new. This is not news either. We have known for months that France will be downgraded. We have known for even longer that the PIGS are in deep shit. And Italians are in a bigger trough, of poo, with or without Silvio.

Yet why do markets plunge last Friday because of the actual downgrading? And then rise again today? Fuck if I know, to put it mildly. The only profession one should get in at times like this is to be the broker. Who cares which way it moves, as long as there is a transaction and you make the commission. Best if there are LOTS of transactions.

In the meantime, POG and POI are steady. And as long as I can collect alphas, I don't care what the market is doing in the short term.

To put it in a simple language, the average investors in financial funds and institutions get screwed by those idiots who play around with their money and get paid handsomely. What a nice world! You will notice that the markets all seem to move in unison, in waves. Am I the only contrarian left?

BPT and PRU

Both got the green light from Tim Treadgold today. Makes me feel smart. I have been topping up, topping up and topping up on them. My last parcel of PRU was on 3/1/12 at $2.52. When a good announcement is out, and idiots are selling, it is always a great time to buy. Famous quotation by me... but few listen! And usually no one else pumps their money in. Less competition for me :-)

My only regret is I am not gutsy enough to buy bigger parcels. Regret? No. Greed can be rewarded with catastrophe. Better to accumulate wealth, slow, steady AND disciplined (I only have that much to play with and I don't like to borrow). And some parcels do head south!

GMR

I don't hold any shares in GMR. Its share price leapt by a huge amount before settling over 35%. I have too many West African miners already. Today, GMR announced a fantastic gold discovery. But many miners do that all the time and very little happens. My other point is every time a drill is sunk into West Africa, gold is found!

Why anyone would not invest in this group of miners is beyond me! You just have to pick one that is better than the other. And even more importantly, one that the market likes. BSR and SBL have been languishing but I just cannot comprehend the reason for it. Worse still, the management at SBL wants to sell off the company cheaply. My strongest suspicion, and I don't have any proof, is "Are they receiving under the counter payments from the predator (Singaporeans or Malaysians?)?"

CDU

This should be included in my top 10 but I took it out because the market perception is poor. But if you are looking at the longer term prospect instead of just 12 months, then with so many good announcements extending its resource, how can you ignore CDU?

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20120116/pdf/423s77p7g42ljr.pdf

Top 10

Many tipsters have a list like that but I have been on a holiday. Which ones are mine? None of the blue chip stocks.

Top of my list is ABU for what it has uncovered and will uncover.
Then CTP for finally hitting oil in Central Australia, with the largest exploration tenements in Australia.
LSA for how cheap it is and finding more gold.
MNC with the largest copper resource in South America, not owned by a big company
GUF for its coal in Mongolia
PRU will be taken over by a major gold company once production goes smoothly
TAS when the huge IOCGU deposit is finally confirmed and RIO will move in (RIO is funding the search)
RRS if the oil in Georgia is found, already missed the first time.
WHN if huge amount of oil in Seychelles is real
PCL if huge amount of oil off Kenya is real

These are high risk stocks. Read this: Oil explorations usually end up as failures in spite of all the hypes and detective technology but if a good deposit is found, then one gain will compensate for a lot of losses. That is the nature of investment in oil stocks that are hunting for prospective oil. Also if exploration is slow or delayed, then a fall can be expected.

Why not so many gold producers? Because the list of 10 is purely for scoring a good hit for 1 year, ie a medium term investment. These are a bit like horse racing to win for a fixed duration. But always remember, to do your own research, these are high risk stocks and it is purely to score best till Dec 31, 2012, i.e. an element of gambling.

India and China

These are the two behemoths of the future. Which one will predominate? The answer is given by an article today on gold consumption. China has just overtaken India as world's biggest gold consumer in 2011, an impossible feat at the beginning of the year.

The good news for Australia, and me, is that the pace of consumption in China is "accelerating". Instead of the Central Banks hoarding, it is the Chinese. They have too much cash and don't spend like the Yanks, Aussies or once upon a time, the Europeans. Chinese Yuan is tied up the USD which can be printed. Gold is not produced by a printing press.

China is currently the world largest producer of gold but it is consumed locally. They probably eat it! Australia, I think is number 2. South African mines are very deep and good grades are no longer the norm. As a value hedge, it is difficult to beat gold purely on historical facts.

For me, it is still gold sector that appeals. RB said phosphate and potash for food production as well. And India and China needs more coal. However, China has found huge deposits in Xinjiang (where the Muslim problem lies) and Mongolia is only next door. And China has the world's largest shale gas reserve, prospectively.

Go, ABU, Go! But it is NOT a producer yet....

CTP

There is something I don't know how to read. When CTP announced oil discovery in Central Australia, its share price went up a bit. But WHY only a bit? Is the pressure, the flow, the depth, the quality, the distance, the extractability, the size, the reliability of the exploration result, etc, etc just not good enough? Is there a fear that Bob Brown our de facto Prime Minister, might not allow the juice to flow? Is there a stop to fraccing in Central Australia? Is the cost of extraction too high? Is there no market?

Well, the share price is still higher than the SPP at 5.5c. I have until the 25th Jan to decide.... Wish I did geology at the university!

European woes

Blah blah blah. Nothing exciting about France's downgrading yesterday. Nothing new about Greeks protesting instead of working. So why did the markets suddenly treat these announcements with a fall? All should have been factored in and ignored.

At least, the Yanks are improving. China has not collapsed. Japs are working hard to restore the country. And Europe is still the same hopeless Europe.

QBE

I don't understand this insurance game. In time of major disasters, your share price falls because of payout for the victims. In time of tranquility and peace, you are seen to have overcharged for insurance. Even with a well-run company, you cannot escape those sentiment/consequence.

If you are honest, you charge correctly to compensation for bad times. If you are crooked, you charge cheaply and file for bankruptcy during bad times. People want to pay minimal for their insurance so who do they insure with? The cheapest! That means the honest ones find it harder to sell their policies.

Sold QBE off at about $16 in Nov 2010 and never regretted. Better still it is only around $10 today.

POG

One moment, it is climbing and next moment, it is plunging. I suspect the desperados were the sellers and the Chinese were the buyers. You buy when you have spare cash and if idiots had to dump their best (currently) performing assets to realize cash, then it will have to be gold.

Gold will usually find its own value. Too high, people will start cashing in their inherited gold, central banks will see an opportunity to offload their hoards or more high-cost gold mines will restart. Too low, high-cost mines will cave-in, central banks will re-accumulate and people will start buying for jewelry or investment.

My problem is how to spot the trend... but as long as the value is much higher than what it costs my miners to produce, I am a happy lad.

PRU is worth under AUD$1.4 billion and soon it will be churing out 400,000 oz of Au per year. The other great news is that it is still finding more gold. I topped up at $2.52 on 3/1/12 :-) I have to thank the seller who sold after the multiple good news posted by the company. I would say ABU remains my future GIR, judging from the better multiple good news it has been churning out. It took so many postings of GIR and goadings before some of my readers of my old emails forked out some money to buy it. Of course, great trenching results do not necessarily translate into good JORC resource figures. But I based my expectation on logic and extrapolation. Do your own research. I did top up ABU twice late 2011 at 5.5c and 5.7c. And GUF at 67c at the same time. With the upturn in the ASX, I have done well with these last 4 purchases. Maybe, I am still smart... temporarily. ASX might start to run downhill; inshallah!

AUD

When Aussies get a tax refund, they are so glad. Nuts! That means the ATO took too much of your money from the previous year and just hand it back to you, without interest. I kept asking my nurses to give me $1000 and then at the end of the year, I will refund the $1000 with a little interest but they won't. Of course, the interest will be below market rate to account for my "effort" but it is still better than what the ATO refunded.

The same applies to the AUD. The lower it is, the BETTER! Yet most Aussie nuts want a high value AUD, especially because they will be traveling or will be buying overseas goods. The nation as a whole is much better off if it can SELL goods. Just look at China, with its yuan pegged at a lower value and its resultant wealth accumulation.

Ah.... we live in a Clever Country!

The rise to over USD$1.03 is not good news...

CTP and BSR

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20120112/pdf/423qm0rvngc010.pdf
http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20120112/pdf/423qm2jzjp8pwh.pdf

One has found oil in Central Australia and another keep finding more gold in West Africa.

Both have been tumbling and even good announcements do not cause a huge jump in the share price. Inshallah!

I am topping up my CTP holding by SPP. And I have topped up BSR many times but often disappointed but not despondent as one day, someone very rich will discover how good it actually is.

Under-rated tipster... and he comes free

http://minesite.com/news/itll-be-a-stock-pickers-market-in-australia-this-year-but-visibility-is-at-least-better-than-it-is-elsewhere-in-the-world

This guy writes with logic. But logic does not translate into profitability in the short term. He has been one of my best stock-pickers. And I invest for the longer term.

I will certainly look at SMD today even though I am reluctant to spend as the market direction has no logic. But the best time to buy is always when few wants to buy... and plenty of idiots want to sell. Who knows, in a few months time, those idiots will be laughing at idiotic buyers like me!

POG

The AUD and POG have been relatively unscathed yet gold miners have largely been savaged. Why? Why? Why? POG dipped towards USD$1500 per oz and AUD fell to mid 90's. Both have bounced back to levels that have been quite stable for some time.

China's economy is not going to fold overnight; the Chinese are great at saving. I visited my eldest cousin's eldest son's porcelain factory in China. He said the European financial problem has affected his export volume but Brazil is taking some of his stock. Overall, it is down but it hasn't been bad.

The infrastructure development in China is very progressive. There will be long term benefits. The roads between regional cities are usually dual or triple carriageways; better than in NSW.

Hence I expect Australia to be insulated for a longer period. And gold is still the best hedge, so I am still concentrating mostly on gold miners/producers. European, US and Japanese problems won't be disappearing for a long time.

By the way, I managed to buy some Chinese music CDs in Xiamen and KL; all produced in China, Taiwan and HK. The quality has improved by leaps and bounds. In 10 more years, the Chinese tourists will be lamenting how the quality in the West is not what it used to be! Unless the goods are still made in China! My biggest problem is getting non-pop music; I wanted classical Chinese music and lao ge (old 30's to 60's music) but hardly anyone listen to it. In good Chinese movies by famous directors, they use those music to evoke nostalgia or sensuality/emotion. Too much piracy maims the music industry in the Orient and the youths are very orientated towards modern pop music style of the west. I must be getting on...

Platinum

http://minesite.com/news/platinum-fire-sale-on-the-rich-mans-gold

This article is worth reading but it is very difficult to translate investments in platinum stocks into profit. They seem to keep exploring and never mining because it is extremely difficult to mine. A mining company has to sell first to generate a profit. My only platinum stock at the moment is PGM but currently it is a loss. It has been like a yo-yo. Another stock exploring in Canada has plunged in the last 12 months but I cannot comprehend why when it keeps reporting more platinum discovered at Thunder Bay.

So read the link... but don't buy! Investors do not follow logic.

Back to civilization

My new definition of civilization now is whether you can get to blog sites, facebook, twitter and youtube. In China, this cyber freedom does not exist.

Markets have been awful. Even good stocks are slaughtered. But what Our Man In Oz says is that the good stocks are sold off because these have value and can generate instant cash for the desperate sellers. Good news means nothing to the investors when the sentiment is down.