STB

In June 2008, I paid 31.5c for STB. And the price drifted down to 20c for the entitlement which I bought in Dec 2009. I have sold the small entitlement parcel recently and I have recouped all my capital cost for STB. So my STB shares are "free". My original parcel has gone up by 17x. Just today, the share price went up by 49c.

This is my greatest return of all my shares.

For those interested in potash, have a close look at GMM.... It is floundering! But why???? Potash and Mongolia - these are hot features and exist in GMM and the share price is down! One "bad" shallow drilling announcement with no bearing on the expected deeper potash deposit has punished the share price of the company. At least it gave me opportunities to top up and top up. I love idiotic sellers!

ERN

I have no idea why suddenly today I am onto the green zone with ERN. It collected a tenement in Congo with gold prospect. The quality of the minimal exploratory samplings looked very good, so I bought. And since then, it has been a loss! But today, something odd is going on as it has a big spurt.

LRF

Wow! What a nice set of profit!

Yet people are not interested in LRF. No interim dividend this time though which is a bit disappointing.

When I was getting people to buy it, it was around 40-70c. The NTA was huge! You are getting something or rather, a lot, for nothing. If you look at their top five investments, I doubt if there is any fund manager in the resource sector with a better collection. However, it is good that few people want it.... it gave me an opportunity to top up :-) in 2008, 2009 and last in 2010. There will definitely be a top up this year from my entitlements in June 2011.

GMM

The MC for GMM is very small, under $10 million. Closer to half of that.

Yet, the board comprises of guys who run very successful companies. They are almost a stable. Are they good with hype for the rest but poor for GMM. Normally, any company in Mongolia and looking for potash (already discovered by Russians, nearby), it would have soared.

HAR

Anything that smells of Mongolia usually cause a lift in share price. But I have two non-performers, GMM and HAR. Luckily I have lots of patients. I have already been topping up GMM a few times. So it is time to top up HAR when spare cash surfaces. HAR is in Fe ore and only a stone throw from China.

ELM

Someone wrote in Hotcopper that based on his/her calculation, ELM's deposit could be bigger than Potashcorp's in Canada. It has risen very fast. The first lot of ordinary shares I bought in Aug 2010 has gone up 5x and the smaller options bought in Oct 2010 and Jan 2011, have doubled.

The other good news I heard is Potashcorp has increased its potash to over USD$500 per ton. Only not long ago, it was around $300 per ton.

When I sell some of my AGO, ELMO is where I will park some money. If you look at the number of Chinese tourists in Sydney, you will realise that these people (who are getting richer) need to be fed... from less and less available arable land. A lot were carrying Sony video camcorder and Canon cameras with zoom lens.

FMG

Which came first? The 4c rise in share price or the trading halt? It discovered a nearby new 1 billion tonne Fe ore deposit. I assume the trading halt was after the small rise. I have sustained a big loss with FMG but it is recovering. And soon I hope, it will be in the green zone.... while Andrew is disqualified as a director! I also hope it will take over AGO.

SDL

I sold it a long time ago. Decent profit. But why did I sell?

The timing wasn't great as the share price went up and up after that but it has been falling from its peak. And the reasons for the recent fall are the reasons why I sold. Its Fe deposit is in Cameroon. High risk location, both in sovereign and geographic (but you can't ask Ken Talbot to verify that but he confirmed it) terms. It is far from China and India (shipping around the Cape of Good Hope) but nearer Europe.

Fe ore needs railways to carry bulk goods, not piddly ones to carry passengers. The deposit is so far inland. There is no port to handle it yet. The infrastructure cost is phenomenal. Someone in Hotcopper pointed these factors out. I sold before Chinese interest moved in but they obviously haven't done their cost homework properly.

Currently, even the estimate has over-run! I bought when it was under 10c a piece when hardly anyone talked about SDL and before Ken Talbot did.

O&G

The success rate is poor but the promises are mouth-watering. And if successful at finding a sizeable deposit, then one success can cover many losses.

I have umpteen O&G explorers. Not about female anatomy.

Of all the prospects, I hold the greatest hope of success with RRSO. My RRSO has already gone up 275%... but I am expecting more. If it does find the billions of barrel of oil in Georgia, then this will be a household name in Oz. Of course, that is over-optimism.

The others are crazy for foolhardy and brave investors: ERH and KAR (Brazil near Petrobra's finding), FAR off Senegal, PCL off Kenya, RIA off Ghana, ROC off Angola, COE off Tunisia, TPT off Morocco, NEN off Vietnam and then BPT, BOW, BUL, AMU (suspended), CTP, SGY, STO, MPO, MEG SSN, BKP, CHN and OBL looking for CSG or shale gas. The CEOs are all very enthuasiastic and optimistic but very few, perhaps none, will be successful. I am a calculated gambler, waiting patiently. PSA, ROC and VIL are big losses for me and perhaps, I should have sold off AWE a long time ago (failures after failures, like ROC, CTP, PSA, VIL and MEO). I still hold hope for MMR but it is jaded.

ABU

http://www.proactiveinvestors.com.au/companies/news/14094/abm-resources-ltd-reaches-17m-gold-ounces-milestone--14094.html


There is a penalty now for gold miners remaining in Oz. If you study ABU, it is incomprehensible how the market values it. It has just announced last week, a JORC-compliant resource of nearly 1.7 million ozs of Au, with another area showing great promise and a further 28 targets to explore. Shallow drilling results at nearby Old Pirate prospect give me a lot of confidence about its future. I hope no big investors pick that information up as I want to do more top-ups.

I have already topped up 6 times within the last 6 months. And has not made spectacular gains yet even though I am in the green zone now. I have patience, and incredulity at market apathy. But then I have the same feelings about BCN (still one of the cheapest EVs!) and it is languishing, with hope and patience on my side and certainly not selling.

If I have spare cash...

What would I buy? I would usually go for down and out stocks that are down and out for no good reasons, especially if they have the goods.

GMM is my only potash stock to go under. STB is up 15x, ELM is up 5x, TRH is up over 90%. And Russian had found potash in GMM's tenement.

BSR has undercovered gold in West Africa and it is my worst performing West African stock. And even with recent good announcements, investors are dumping it. Why? Alamak!

Be warned. I have been topping them up and they have been falling. Give me spare cash and I will continue to top up these stocks. I am hoping no major share tipsters tip other investors about these two.

Another stock I like is AXE. Its old graphite deposit has been rehashed and went for a ride recently. I like graphite; just look at SPM. If AXE comes down a bit more, I would be most interested. The same thing goes for WLF with a recent ride up because of Sn and W... in England. I am hoping for both to fall lower so that I can buy when dividends start to turn up in my account.

Alpha

I have no problem with the value of my portfolios falling. But I have problem if the fall is greater or equal to average. Likewise, I don't enjoy rises when my rise is less than or equal to average.

When market falls quickly or rise quickly, my stocks are usually worse affected. So it has been tumbling badly over the last few days with thanks to the Libyan sadist and short term traders in stocks, commodities and oil/gas.

Today, I can report that my stocks fell a lot less, with thanks to AGO mainly. RDR announced a 58c SPP so its share price fell but that is "unreal" because you have to opportunity to top up at a cheaper price.

This arvo, my surgeon is away so I am going out to enjoy a nice bowl of ramen, with tempura soft-shelled crab. I have a recalcitrant nephew who does not want to join us even though I usually foot the bill. He received a barrage from me for owing money using his credit card. People love to be praised or flattered but not when you criticize them constructively... for their own benefit. Worse, he is angry with me for informing his mother and sisters! And telling them not to give him any accessible cash. Yeap, I am a bastard!

Potash

Today, FMJ (I don't any shares in it) came back from a trading halt and promptly leapt again. It has been leaping and leaping since its recent listing. Why? Potash. Potash here and potash there. I don't even know whether it has found the stuff or not but I bet not. I didn't bother reading because I felt that I have already missed the boat.

But the point is about GMM. The Russian has been to where it is exploring and has found potash. And it is very near China. Just north. The PM of that country was IN Australia yesterday (?still IN), visiting and encouraging Aussie miners to go there.

And guess what? GMM fell by >10% today. I have zilch spare cash. All are earmarked. NMS is swallowing a big chunk; almost compulsory buying because if I don't, the dilution will drown the value of my current NMS shares. Otherwise, I would have picked up more GMM.

So in the market, I wait for idiotic sellers but there are also many irrational buyers. Why chase one particular stock when there is another that offers better value?

CTP

CTP sent me an article by Herald Sun regarding shale gas. The best buy of course would have to be CTP because of its largest tenement with a huge estimate of gas in place but yet to be discovered and yet to be confirmed. BHP just spent over $4 billion to get its foot into shale gas in Arkansas. STO and BPT are already in the news regarding shale gas.

My prediction? If shale gas is found and can be extracted using the new Americano technology, then we can see CTP explode in value. At the moment, it is a very high risk investment and I have been harbouring a loss for a long time since it failed to find hydrocarbon. The CEO is very optimistic though.

Short term vision, RMP, RRSO

How can a leader of a country use mercenaries to kill his fellow citizens who are protesting unarmed? That usually marks the beginning of his ending. The people who control funds only see the markets in the short term. Hence, when they sell, I love to buy... if I have the cash. What I have spend on recently have done well so I cannot complain that I have no spare cash.

The best thing about RMP is, it is exploring for oil in Georgia. Based on Russian technology which claims >80% success rate, I am hopeful RMP and my RRSO will do well with their wells. The drilling rig has been secured so it is a matter of time before the result comes through. It will either be Paspaley pearls for her or longer working hours for me. No, it is going to be a pink diamond for her whatever the result :-(

Market Sentiment

Today's fall is due to sentiment. Libya produces less than 3% of world's oil consumption, and this is only a short term problem. Saudis can increase output to make up some of the short fall. The dickhead will be deposed and things will be better in Libya. So why the gloomy short term outlook? No spare cash at the moment, otherwise, I would be buying in today's market.

In Australia, we produce most of our oil and the rise is only during the ME turmoil. After that oil should fall back to a more reasonable rate to sustain economic growth in India and China, and to a lesser extent the USA. If it is me with cash, I would buy oil and gold companies.

Libya

The markets around the world are only interested in short term events. The best thing to happen to Libya now is to get rid of a despot. That kind of political stability is fake; ie, it is due to political suppression, not politcal stability. In the longer term, that nation is better with democracy. It might not come yet as a religious body may usurp power but the people will eventually rise up too against authoritarian rule. Let us see what will happen in Iran...

Prices of precious metal

Share price can fall due to sentiment in the short term. But if you are using logic to invest, you wonder why gold stocks are falling while the price of gold has gone over USD$1400 again and Pt, Pd and Ag are charging ahead. I love those sellers! I just don't have much cash at the moment to mop them up.

LRF

If you don't want the stress of investing in resource stocks, LRF is the one for you. For a long time and even today, it is grossly under-rated as a fund manager. Just look at their top 5 investments and you will realise that it is much more astute than those big fund managers.

The discount to NTA is falling but at 26% in the report, it is still very high for a well-managed stock. Why no one wants to buy LRF is beyond my understanding. And some years, the dividend is great because of capital gains generated. I am pleased that I have been topping up at mostly around 45c and 67c in the last 2 years. It is around $1 now.

LRF is also in a privileged position of being about to collect options and placements. It has even offered loans to mining companies, with the debt convertible to shares at very favourable rates. It has taken a long time for LRF to get back to base value because of the GFC and market sentiment against it.

Market today

No alpha today. It isn't Libya. It is China clamping down on credit. So commodity prices have fallen.

However, in the mist of falling price, there is one bright spark. I attended a presentation by Proactive Investors and bought SLR. It has fallen since but the reason for buying it has not changed. Why it went down and down, I have no idea. It went up closer to my buy price. In fact, I was pondering whether to top it up but I have no spare cash as there is options to exercise and entitlements to pay for.

I love to buy shares that others don't want; when share price keeps falling for no good reason.

I have put a low buy on MAT and AXE but today, the price did not fall low enough.... Patience is a virtue.

SBL, SPM

http://www.kitco.com/ind/Reser/feb102011.html

SBL has stopped singing about its manganese discovery in its tenement. I wonder why.

http://www.proactiveinvestors.com/companies/news/10395/the-vanadium-market-vanadium-redox-batteries-may-be-the-future-10395.html

And I have read recently about vanadium lithium battery. It has the advantage that it does not deteriorate over time. Yesterday, SPM released a minor announcement that a fund specializing in minerals has taken up a chunk of its share. Yes, it has a large 'world-class' vanadium deposit in Oz. And, in just over 2 months, I am onto >100% profit with it :-)

ABU

Alamak! In the Malay vernacular, this is the same as Mamma Mia or Holy Cow or F#$^*@.

How can a company that announces a JORC compliant resource of 1.6 million oz of gold be worth only around 3.5c, with a MC of $78 million, with more areas to explore? In Australia, too! I have been topping up this stock repeatedly but was sheltering a small loss for quite a while. Last two buys was at 2.8c and 2.7c and these parcels have been very profitable. Even with good announcements, share price fell and this is always a red rag to me to buy. I love idiotic sellers. I often wonder what goes on in their heads and what makes them sell when they should be buying. They must thinking about idiotic buyers like moi!

At today's price, I am currently laughing at the sellers.... Wait till the whole area is explored; the best is yet to come.

NMS

The previous CEO was clever at deceiving me that the company was doing well. He has overspent and debt is not tolerated during GFC. Mermaid Marine got most of the servicing contracts in NW Shelf. And there was trouble in the Gulf Of Mexico, courtesy of Tony Hayward's lack of insight into quality control within BP.

The last profit statement suggests that the company is turning around with the new CEO. And there is an entitlement for current shareholders. This company has turned out to be a big loss but the problem is if you don't participate, you will sustain a bigger loss due to a massive dilution of your current holding by the much cheaper entitlement. It is a Catch 22 situation.

If the latest profit projection is true and not a con trick, then you will have no choice but to feed more money into the company to keep it alive and hopefully, makes a bigger profit as it suggests.

Potash - ELM GMM TRH STB

BHP is going to spend $12 billion on developing its potash resource in Canada. Not $12 million but billion. Obviously, it has done its homework and it likes the prospect for potash. So when a huge resource giant has done its homework, I just latch onto its assessment and buy cheaper potash explorer. Now, all have skyrocketed, except one which I had been topping up, topping up and topping up. That is your homework but it is not difficult. Of course, it is not STB. Yesterday, in a down market, STB went up. In fact, it has given me a 15x return on my investment; the best so far. And to think I sustained a loss in it for a long, long time. It will be taken over.... soon because it has found too much potash and it is probably the cheapest to mine of all potash deposits.

EXT

For a long, this was my star performer. Still is but it stagnated. It is unlikely to remain on the stock market for long. Transforming uranium in the ground into a commodity to sell takes a long, long time. Moreover, bigger companies are appearing on its share registry.

The latest: RIO is 'talking' to EXT. RIO is producing uranium there (near EXT), owns a chunk of EXT, and I think also Kalahari Minerals. It can afford to pay a premium for EXT. So soon, I will own more RIO shares! Someone knew about RIO talking to EXT because the price spike in EXT occurred before the press reported on the "talking". I am expecting a bigger spike soon.

China sneezed

It is becoming extremely clear that when China sneezes, Australia is the first to catch the cold. And not just the resource sector.

We often eat at a particular Chinese restaurant in Albert St when we go to the Opera House for events. You should see the number of Chinese tourists, in busloads, eating a meal there. They troop in and they troop out. China is quickly becoming Australia's number one source of tourism dollars. The Chinese tourists are also becoming better dressed, carrying expensive Japanese camcorders and cameras. Soon, they might even own that restaurant.

The Chinese government is tightening credit. Banks are required to hold higher reserves. Consequently, the market fell yesterday. Libyan event is minor stuff. Wall street 73 point rise had no effect on our market. That is, NO EFFECT.

The saviour today is the price of gold is up due to ME unrest... and Chinese hoarding. And price of a barrel of oil is up too. And gas, too. I hold a lot of gold and energy stocks. The general market will be down today but I hope to collect alphas.

Bad news are always true until proven otherwise

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/nation/national-park-rumours-take-toll-on-sa-uranium-miner/story-e6frg6nf-1226009095589

I bought MTN a long time ago. Then someone in a share trading website that I don't visit anymore painted a gloomy ecological picture. He stood his ground and asked those who condemned and attacked him to go and have a look at the tenement. It is apparently very beautiful and he says that it should be a national park!

Then a Hong Kong mob came and offered a ridiculously low price when MTN was struggling. That opportunistic bug persisted to make life difficult for the board but eventually MTN share price rose because market sentiment improved and it made the HK group looked evil.

Soon after, MTN was fined for not doing the right thing where it was exploring. The tailings were not discarded properly.

I cannot remember when I sold but it had become only a small profit. Bad site because of its natural beauty and board doing the wrong thing are not good omens. When it becomes a National Park, it will be the end of the story. So all bad news are true until YOU prove it wrong.

AXE

It is impossible to pick out every good and meaningful announcement. Sometimes, I rely on journalists to highlight it. But this usually means missed opportunity. Note that the graphite drilling result is NOT new but recycled to get market attention.

http://imagesignal.comsec.com.au/asxdata/20110218/pdf/01152352.pdf

AXE would appear to be bigger than SER. I bought SER at 5.4c in Oct 2010. It is worth 18.5c on Friday close. The European Commission regards graphite as one of 14 materials listed as high in both economic importance and supply risk. I love those words! But unfortunately, the stock rose >30% on Friday.

Will I chase this stock? You will be surprised how influential Our Man In Oz is. He has quite a few listener. Last time he highlighted CCU and I think WLF, they have not looked back. And I have made a lot of $$$ out of his tips.

Fly in the ointment

China is on watch. Interest rate is going up, inflation is going up and Baltic Index is falling. All these are not good signs for Australia.

Some time soon, it will be necessary to make up my mind whether to liquidate some stocks to keep cash in hand.

FNT

Has anyone been watching this? This is another one of those miners that kept churning out good news that few bother to listen... and act on. Luckily I do. First bought in April 2010 and then topped up at a lower price in Aug 2010 when a good set of trenching figures was released. Gone up >450% in under one year.

In case you think I have only just brought up this gem, search my notes...

GIR stable

While I have made heaps from GIR, what is less well known is the spin-offs from GIR. PEN is now up 130% after I endured a paper loss for a long time. I have cashed out on ZNC to make a fast buck. CAP is up 170%; bought when it was floated off. There were a few others but nothing remarkable. I did make a loss with PMH (since then swallowed up by another company) but it is nothing when compared to the total gain from GIR stable.

My point about this posting is: Watch where the GIR men go and follow them!!!!!!

GGG

On a day when it announced a new lode of REE and uranium, the share price went up. But when you look at how thick the deposit is, you wonder why the share price only went up... a little bit.

You really wonder how does the market value good announcements. I have very little spare cash for topping up. AGO has fallen back, most likely from GIR investors taking profit. I will wait for the dust to settle before doing the same. It is a well known fact that AGO itself could be a takeover target so I am only selling some to re-coup my capital cost for GIR.

Review of notes from Sept 2010

Those are my first financial entries. Of course, there are some downs in my selection. But there have been some spectacular gains.

With those that went down, I still hold hope. CTP has the largest tenements in Australia. Although drillings have failed to show commercial oil deposits, there are promising signs. There is coal and hydrocarbons there. You just need to find the BIG ones and have the capital to develop it. And HEG does have gold and is producing. What you need are better profits and good drilling results.

The rest? You will need to read them yourself; I am enjoying the rewards.

AZX

One day, I was studying EKM (now changed to GOR). In its presentation, it showed a bar chart showing a company called AZX with the lowest EV/Resourse oz. So I bought AZXOA, the options, without much hesitation. Today, after less than 5 months, I am onto just over 100% profit.

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20110216/pdf/41wtjxxqh24n40.pdf

So here is an exercise for you to do. Read the Peer Comparison slide. And work it out yourself. This is more rewarding than watching sports....

SBL

All I know is the EV is very low and it discovered manganese at its tenement. Still the share price remained pretty stagnant for a while. But recently, it started to move. And today, it sprinted.

It goes to show that if you buy something grossly undervalued AND it keeps churning out good news AND few investors want it, buy that company... from idiotic sellers! I have been topping up and topping up and topping up.... Initially with a tinge of regret. The regret was really about wondering why so few people wanted this stock... and I continued to make a loss. Not any more!

GLF

After an AMEC presentation in 2009 Oct, I bought GLF at 4.2c based on the CEO's forward estimate of the PE ratio. It was 2. He said when I asked him personally at the end of the meeting to confirm what he said, that he expects it to be better still.

But for a long time, I questioned whether I was conned. However, the figures produced by GLF continue to support what the CEO said so I bought more at 2.9c when it moved into Madagascar, exploring for limestone and other minerals. At closed today, due to a spurt, after nearly 16 months, GLF went up to 7c. It had been great just to see it turned green but now I am onto 94% profit.

AGO

This is something most people would love to 'complain' about. I am now top heavy with AGO. Because my return from GIR has been phenomenal... and then AGO continues to rise, the portfolios that I manage, are overladen with AGO shares.

But there are many people taking profit from the takeover. So I will wait a little longer. This AM, AGO went up and then went down.

TPT

This one is all hype, too. But it has gone up by 37%. What is amazing though is the options. It was offered at 2c a piece. Within a week of listing, it is now 21c. Of course, when it is so lucrative, you would get only a few hundred dollars worth. Still, it is worth thousands today! This is easier than doing anaesthetic with less responsibility and less thinking.

Effect of good tipsters

Got great leads this AM. But before I could even buy any, WLF and CCU have already jumped. So I am leaving them alone until they fall. If they fall.

FNT

The best shares to buy are those with GOOD multiple sequential announcements, and no one wants to listen except moi. That is my FNT. And it continued on its way down merrily after I first bought. So what do I do? A few months later, I topped up. And then nothing much happened.

As more good multiple sequential announcements come out, finally, the market's blindness recovers. Or rather market's deafness. In under a year, it is up >300%.

Why don't people heed good announcements? Thank God, most people don't listen or see... while I do.

WLF

After reading in between the lines and looking at WLF's performance in a year... and 3 years, and then considering the rising value of tungsten and tin (in term of $$$ and strategic value), the share price will definitely fly up today. But if it doesn't, then this is what I would buy today with any spare cash I have. However, thereafter I expect the progress will be slow until the mineral is excavated. I like to get in early before the crowd.

SPI

When the SPI goes up a lot, it won't benefit me as much because a lot of my stocks are beyond the ASX top 200. So come Monday, it will be the banks and big miners. The parcel that I keep in the drawer will though.

Oil and Gold are not up because the revolution in Egypt is quite calm. Em... and Switzerland is finally being altruistic by freezing the greedy dictator's bank account.

Price of commodities has not moved up due to the slow market in China. At last, CNY is becoming an important event in world economy. So my resource stocks are not going to spurt.

RRSO

RRSO is 18c, and converts to ordinary share at 5c in Dec 2011. RRS is 25c.

Can anyone do simple arithmetic? No interest payment is required to make the calculation simpler.

He survey

Now I know why RRSO went up by so much. I read about Helium survey, a Russian technology. Success rate? >80% hits when He survey is used to detect oil underground and around 11% for those based on seismic studies. We will hear about this technology more frequently! I am very glad I picked up some more RRSO in Dec 2010 although I didn't get all the shares I bid for at 4.3c. It was the trough :-) Luck or skill? As Deng Xiaoping said "It does not matter whether the cat is black or white, as long as it catches the mouse". My cat is either lucky or clever.

Considering the "unrisked" amount of oil to be discovered according to recent RRS announcement, I think 18c will be historic soon for the options.

www.actualgeology.com/Short%20version%20AGV%20preso%2021%2010%2009_eng.ppt

RRSO, PIR, STB, ABU

Today, the ASX fell by around 30 points. My portfolio went up a bit. Why? A big thank you to RRSO. Bought at 4.8c average in Nov and Dec 2010 but it jumped by 6c today to 18c. I have no idea why. Perhaps because of a He survey which shows priority areas to drill for oil and gas?

Lucky that at least one of my reader(s) bought some RRSO at the same time as I did. His first foray into options. He is buying me coffee on Monday :-)

I don't know why PIR has been creeping up and up. When share price goes up and up without any logic, be prepared for it to plunge without any logic either.

I can understand why STB is up. This is quite immaterial to me though as my parcel of STB is basically free because I have more than recoup my cost.

And now ABU has joined the rise too. Again I have no idea why.

These stocks drew me into the positive territory against a fall in the market. Of course, I have lots of negatives too but overall, I have done well today relative to other investors. It is what I call ALPHA.

Slowly I am beginning to feel we are being conned by big financial management companies to think that we don't know how to look after our investments. My super portfolio rose by 3x since Feb 2009. Could have done better if I had controlled all of my money, including those with Citibank and Goldman Sachs. I only do simple research without any accounting/commerce background. And I read a few good share tipsters' reports.

VMS

http://www.minesite.com/nc/minews/singlenews/article/venture-minerals-closes-in-on-a-development-commitment-at-the-mount-lindsay-tin-and-tungsten-project/1.html

When you read an article like the above, you wonder why the market still won't let VMS rise in share price. No logic in the short term but in a few years time, if Sn price stays at its current level, VMS cannot possibly remain where it is currently when cash is rolling in. Luckily in this world, there are so many dumb sellers :-)

Shale drilling

Apparently in the USA, big oil companies are chasing small oil companies, using new technology to get at new oil deposits. The outcome has been extremely rewarding and significant amount of oil can now be extracted. Where once it was cheap to have the tenements to explore, it is now becoming very expensive.

I have some companies exploring in the USA. SSN is doing very well. SGY has just gone green after being a loss for a long, long time.

But what I want to highlight is my Australian companies exploring in Australia. There are shale deposits in WA, QLD and NT/SA. At the moment, these companies are worth very little with very little spare cash. However, sooner or later, the big boys will move in. I don't know if the geology is the same but if you listen to BPT, you would think this is the place to be. My CTP has been a loss, OBL has sunk and BKP was only bought recently. BPT is the biggest of the small boys but CTP has the biggest tenements. BKP recently announced that there are outside interests wanting to make a move on it. These are very, very high risk companies with very loud dog whistling. But when you look at what is happening in the MidWest in the USA, you would think that it is wise to jump in ahead in Australia. Good luck if you do but be prepared for nothing for a while and possible loss if the geology is different. Most are losses for me but I would like to top up some of them.

PIR

This has been rising and rising. The announcements while good can't account for the rate and frequency of rise. So there is only one way to go in the short term, down. But sometimes, you suspect inside information. The drillers could be giving out inside information to select few. Since I bought into PIR on the cheap, I can afford to sit it out, up or down. So far, drilling results are usually great.

My last top up was to buy the options. My ordinary shares were purchased at under 13c average. Because the options were bought later, it was around 20c. The nice thing about options is I can get a lot more shares... on credit with no penalty/interest payment if I failed to pay up on exercise day.

Tin: KAS MLX VMS

When Sn price kept rising, I couldn't resist buying those 3. BCN owns a chunk of CSD but its share price does not reflect that. There is an article in Eureka Report this evening highlighting the value and future of tin. It is the new gold!

My KAS and VMS were bought in Nov 2011 so I don't expect any performance. KAS I think reflects the problem with unrest in the Middle East... so it is a good time to top it up! MLX is already up 67% since my Sept 2010 buy. Tomorrow it will rise because of a profitable announcement after the market closed... until market sentiment dictates otherwise.

VLA

Aussies are very smart people. Even better than at sports but not many are aware. Thank God for that. You can make money out of that knowledge. Let most people focus on sports and ignore Aussie talent in science, technology, geology, etc, etc.

One of the problems with biotech sector is how do you value it. As good as the technology is, it has to be something that can be transformed in time into profit. A cure in malaria is great for mankind but not for wealth generation.

The process from a concept to final sales of a product is very, very long and costly. Unless a bigger company with deep pockets comes along, it is nearly always a protracted loss. Very few succeed, like Cochlea or CSL. And one-product companies like Resmed may tumble if the technology is superseded or malfunction.

Today, VLA made a leap. The technology is brilliant but there are others in the market with the same trick. So today's significant jump in the share price could herald the arrival of a big (foreign?) company... taking away an Aussie invention. Good for my pocket but less good for long term profitability. I have been nurturing a loss for a long time now so it will be good to see the stock turns green again.

BDR and BSR

Someone has been listening to my ranting about values.

BDR has moved because its "waste" has value. Interspersed between its gold bands are itabrite or Fe ore which are of value to its JV partner. This apparently is a rare combination, ie Au and Fe.

And then BSR as I expected, found more gold, so its share price rose today. But there are many idiotic sellers in BSR so it might fall tomorrow. At least it has gone up to one of my buy prices.

TRF

If you want to know how stupid the market is, just look at TRF. It owns a chunk of ROL and IRD. Both had good announcements, yet TRF's share price is going down. DOWN! How stupid can those sellers be? I put a buy for 41c and if there are more stupid sellers, I would welcome them.

FAR, PCL, RIA

On Oct 11th 2010, I posted a note about FAR. This is another of my highly speculative shares... which has done well without even discovering any oil or gas. The same goes for PCL and RIA. And there are many others. I must be lucky as few have hits and yet the share prices kept going up. There is a god for Oil and Gas! Even MMR didn't collapse totally; neither did KAR nor MEO.

PDY

I saw an announcement today for AGU. It was excellent but I noted it is where PDY has its tenements. In fact, it is a JV. I bought PDY for nearology to HOR's recent Cu discovery. PDY's tenements enclose HOR's. But PDY is so cheap and it has already discovered Fe ore there. So it is a matter of discovering MORE. And it has obliged. I only intended to buy PDY for trading purposes. I will see how high it goes.

NYO

This miner is looking for gold in Ethiopia. Kevin Rudd was there recently to open a trade mission... probably to facilitate Aussie miners/explorers. For once, someone praised Aussie companies for scouring around the world in exotic places to make money for Australia. Too much f*&k.... attention paid to sportsmen. In fact miners bring in more money to ATO than sports yet geologists get zilch acknowledgment.

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20110208/pdf/41wncz4rw27t7n.pdf

It has dipped below my buy price. Not much spare cash otherwise I would top up.

CGX

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20110208/pdf/41wn5wn3v15vtl.pdf

When you invest in a company, this is what you want to hear. 400% rise in profit compared to the previous season... and bigger profit to come. Ultimately, I want dividend, not a takeover as I am more interested in income in the long term than short term gains. But never complain! I am also happy with share price rise or a takeover. I do get very annoyed though when management only consider short term gains when the future is much brighter.

NEN

I get a nicer high with a stock recovering from loss to profit than seeing a stock multiplying in value.

If you look at the chart for NEN, this one is climbing the wall! I have been harbouring a loss on this company for so long. But I never sold it because I like its story. In fact, I like its Vietnamese exploration so much, I topped up at 12c in Oct 2010. Only in the last month, has this stock started to be noticed. It has other tenements too.

Patience is a great virtue in investment.... especially when you know the company is good but will take time to be noticed! Now it is 28c.

CNLO

Going nowhere for a while now. But phosphate in Tunisia is making a splash today so my options went flying too. Upwards. Will this be sustained? You bet! The buyer has already agreed to take up some of CNL's equity and buy the phosphate before even a feasibility study. That is confidence in a company for you.

Hence I have a sudden upsurge in the profitability in CNLO and I don't even have to exercise it until 2014. Thank you to whosoever mentioned this company in Hotcopper. It used to be VGM.

AFR

AFR has great prospect. Coal is needed by India and China. But the big problems it faces are distance from those big markets and South Africa does not want to import electricity from its neighbour. AVA has virtually abandoned its coal fields in Botswana and gone to Kenya... to make more money for me there.

AFR had a recent spike because of D&D tipster. But he didn't say that the existing railway line is only good for transporting a few Africans, not bulk commodity and the port is too small to handle it. By the time the Indians or African governments have constructed a good railway line to move bulky and heavy commodities, it will be many years down the line.

These facts were mentioned at a Proactive presentation that I attended last year. I bought some shares because more coal discoveries were going to be announced. It went up significantly after those announcements and then sprang up after D&D boosted it.

I sold my AFR last week as I don't expect more dramatic leaps unless an Indian company takes it over or another huge find is announced. Any profit above inflation/bank interest is sweet. And if it falls a lot later, I may buy it back.

RRSO

I am doing some basic data entry and came across a very unusual number of shares I topped up for RRSO. Usually, I buy in round numbers. When I looked at the chart, I realise that I have picked up those shares at its trough in Dec 2010. I RARELY collect shares at its trough and this is pure luck.

When I first bought a 5c on 22/11/2010, I told one of my colleagues at work that he should buy some, too because it is has 'unrisked' (don't ask me what it means!) huge amount of oil and gas to be discovered in Georgia and Puntland. Of course, share price often fall after I buy because it is nearly impossible to buy at trough. Then, I put a lower buy price and managed to pick a portion of what I ordered at 4.3c and failed to collect all I wanted when my order expired.

Today, RRSO is worth 8.9c.

It has a JV partner which is raising capital and I have applied for some but I don't know whether I will get any as I hold RRSO and not RRS shares. RMP is also giving priority to RRS shareholders. That new offer is at 20c against current market price of about 25c. It is a no-brainer.

FNT

I looked at the chart today and the performance has been a WOW!

When you read its announcements, it is difficult to imagine why won't it go up the way it did. I first bought at 7.4c in April 2010 based on its trenching report. Of course, like most of my buys, it went down further so I topped up again at 5.5c in August 2010. At 17.5c today, I am more than pleased. There is still some logic in the market!

BCN

I am at a loss to explain why BCN is not doing well. I am taking a big loss with this stock because I exercised my options at 1c. If I didn't, the option becomes worthless. While I still have hope, I doubt if this companywill ever become a 10-bagger. When it turns green, I anticipate selling the whole lot off.

AUQ

I am entering data from my Chess holding statments and notice AUQ's share price has jumped a lot since I bought in Sept 2010. I received a tiny number of shares because I owned shares in SRK. This is a non-marketable parcel.

When the opportunity arose in Sept 2010 to top up, I bought some at 13c. And when good news is ignored by the market, I often buy some more (a fortnight later) at 16c. On Friday, it was worth around 37c. The day before, AUQ announced that in Oman, it has drilled through native copper. CDU has left a bitter taste in most investors' mouths but not mine.

Proactive Investors One2One Investor Forum: "Emerging Stars in Resources"

I attended the presentation on CNY eve, missing out on a Reunion Dinner with my wife. After that, I rushed off to see "Madama Butterfly". Cilla had a sandwich on her own before joining me for the opera.

I didn't sit through all the presentation or I would be late for the opera. Of all the companies presenting, I like KGL best. But I have already made 51% profit out of it. I like any company that looks after the smaller shareholders when they raise capital. This company has a great discovery in Central Asia, with the backing of the new democratically elected government. The previous head was a corrupted tyrant and overthrown last year.

Most gold miners have a spurt in their share price when they announce they are entering an area with gold discoveries, when a near neighbour makes a good find, when they make a good find themselves... and when the feasibility study shows good profit to be made and the final spurts are when it actually start producing and producing more than anticipated. Not always true but that is usually the trend. The best is when a generous takeover occurs.

Shale oil and gas

There is a technology to drill horizontally at depth now. This means more oil and gas can be located and extracted by hydraulic fracturing of rocks. Now it explains why my stocks that invested in the Brakken Shale tenements are doing well. A good example is SSN. And my SGY is now green after years of losses. These are not the only ones I have invested in the USA.

BPT, BKP and CTP are the big players in Central Australia. So when the technology moves downunder, we will see a re-rating of those companies. And there is shale in NW WA too (OBL, BUR).

BKP is only 1.7c, OBL is around 3c. I have sold off BUR some time ago and may come to regret it!

Some wow! performers

Why some perform and others fall? I have no answer but I know today, my super portfolio went up by nearly 2.7%, way above the ASX All Ords. Some stocks fell but those that jumped, jumped high.

GIR still never disappoint me. AMX, AVB, CDU, CRJ, FNT, GMM, GORO, IPT, MMW, PCL, PRU, RDR and VOR have also scored beyond average. But I rarely sell. I have sold some shares recently to create cash for exercising options and priority share offers.

GIR

AGO shares have been flying higher and higher in the last few days. So, GIR shares which are pegged to AGO are flying in tandem. When share prices are moving higher and higher, you want to know why. AGO has upgraded its resources so there is a reason. But it is still going up today, so you start to wonder whether you should take profit and run.

Not me. Iron ore has a long way to go. New mines take too long to start up and they need good port facilities to ship the heavy bulky stuff. And you need a good customer to take your ore. So, for the time being, I am staying put with GIR... and therefore AGO.

But for the purposes of investment principles, a profit is always good and you never know what is the long term future for AGO. So, it may be a good idea to at least re-coup your capital. I paid so little for GIR so I am not doing so.

ZGM

When I bought this stock, the CEO says any buyer would wonder why the share price was so low. Worse still, the share price went down further. So I topped up. Good announcements initially did little to the share price. And I often ponder what the CEO would think.

Today, I would say the CEO and I agree with each other, with further good announcements to be expected. 77% paper gain is a great result after only 4 months.

The cleverest thing is I bought the first tranche based on my own assessment after an ASX announcement by the company. The next lot was bought with prompting by RB. So thank you RB; you have made me a lot of profit. He featured the company shortly after in his Pure Speculation column in The Australia. So readers, forget about reading the sports section on Monday. It is far more rewarding for yourself to read RB's article.

STB

In late 2009, I bought my entitlement to STB at 20c. Today I sold that small parcel at $3.92 a share. And doing so, I have made a small profit AFTER accounting for the capital cost of my whole parcel of STB. The first lot were bought at 31.5c in June 2008.

So today, based on my own accounting method, my STB is "free of charge". Although small initially, after rising more than 10 times, it has become a significant parcel. And this parcel will continue to rise because it is currently, the world most valuable potash discovery.... because it is relative shallow, near a port and in a country which wants to tap on its mineral wealth. Em.... it is Eritrea.

One reason why it jumped a lot in the last week is because D&D (a popular share tipster) has made it its "company of the month". So I benefited :-)