TPT

Including the cheap options, TPT has doubled in value since I bought it in Dec 2010. Sadly, I never topped it up because it kept going up in price.

It announced a trading halt on Friday, "in relation to resource results". In London, the stock was up 25% yesterday. ASX has no authority over the shares traded there.

That means, something positive has happened... most likely in Morocco where it has its best assets. Oil explorers have a habit of turning out failures rather than good hits. If it is true that the news is good on Tuesday when the trading halt is lifted, then 25% rise might be too little. When investing in explorers, you often rely on one good hit to make up for umpteen duds.

Resource stocks

While the last quarter has been good to many stocks, it hasn't been particular kind to mining stocks. For me, that means it was a good time to top up. I sold off GMI and generated cash to buy small parcels of stocks that I already owned. And with EXT sold off in a takeover, the cheque will be arriving soon.

If you look at the arithmetic, you really wonder how those big institutions move their money. POG has been steady between USD$1650 to $1750 per oz for a while and AUD haven't moved much either. And if the Feds is printing more USD, why should gold stocks fall?

Most of the sentiment is due to China slowing down. Once upon a time, it had no bearing on any other markets. But now China is evolving into a dragon. European woes are not over yet. Instead of citizens accepting past financial mistakes, the Spaniards and Greeks are demonstrating against their governments. Perhaps they should look at how Asia cope with the financial crisis of 1997.

Probably the best place to invest in property is in Spain. Of course, it is high risk. I heard properties bought for 400,000 euros are going for below 100,000. Ah... the lure of the euros. All these over-rated Europeans!

ERM

When I bought this stock some years ago, the gold processing plant that it has on-site was worth more than the company capital stock. So, for a while, when DH included it in his portfolio, it was doing well.

And when he jettisoned it, it continued to do well. Then, the market no longer liked it and it started to crumble to near my average buy price. It didn't take long before a big boy came into the scene and started funding further exploration. Since then it has moved up by 150% for me.

When you work out the arithmetic for this stock, you can see into the future that it cannot remain low. Based on the similar logic, LSA is doing well but has been getting dilutional effect from placements. Its PE ratio was below 1 when I topped up last year. In case, you don't understand PE ratio, you might like to know that very few small miners have any earnings at all!!!

ABU and TAM

http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page31?oid=148489&sn=Detail&pid=31

TAM used to own ABU. And for some reasons, chose to spin it off and then dumped the rest of its shares cheaply. The latest drilling result is good and not too far from ABU. However, as with most announcements by ABU, the market totally ignored the nearology. As NT is a big territory, near is not next door but I suspect the geology is the same. The results at Old Pirate have been amazing and some are so shallow. I still have a bid to buy ABU but I often just miss it.

CTP

Those who bought into the SPP recently for CTP must be laughing all the way to the bank. But the former CEO must crying his heart out. He had the vision to lead the company into Central Australia. Isn't it nauseating when the share price flies upwards when you are sacked?

Most shareholders like fast bucks. JH prefers the self-development philosophy but he failed to understand capital raising. He has forgotten how expensive it is to raise money. And how difficult it is to do major work yourself. Drilling in remote areas costs a lot of cash.

At this stage, it is very difficult to see which way CTP will move. For those who are short of cash, it is worth considering cashing off some of the recent shares purchased. In future, the share price could run higher still but a profit is always a profit and greed is risky. Morever, if the share price comes down, you can purchase the shares you sold at a cheaper price. I am in no desperate need for cash and I usually invest for the long haul, hence I am staying put.

AVA

When you have a lot of greenstone in your geology, you will find gold. I attended a talk by AVA head some time ago and it appeared to have picked some choice tenements in Kenya where mining has not been a big source of income.

But lately, interest in Kenya has been fired up by oil discovery in the northwest by Tullows.

What I cannot understand is why AVA share price has been falling. Perhaps it is because of a lack of announcements. When I put a bid for it, just below its last closing price, I managed to pick up a small top up parcel this arvo at 10.5c. This is very near its trough for the year.

PRU, AZM

I picked up a parcel of PRU today at $2.39 after more good hits but deeper. While Mali is a problem, PRU is in Ghana and Ivory Coast. And it has not long ago transformed into a gold producer. Why is the share price falling? I can only speculate that either it is idiots selling or people who bought it very cheaply, wanting the cash now.

I don't expect to make profit out of recent PRU parcels. But I certainly would be very disappointed if the profit result is poor or the JORC compliant resource is lower than expected.

AZM is also unwanted. So I was happy to pick up another parcel of it, too. Gold may be below USD$1700 per oz but a lot of analysts are optimistic.

CTP

I read with amusement the broker's report on CTP. Obviously, it is relishing the dumping of JH as the CEO of the company. He is one of the founders. The report says that the "impediment" to progress in the company has been removed. Paterson might get back its old job as the broker to the company!

JH does not want any farm-in. He also wants to be the operator. Of course, investors want short term gain. Neighbouring tenements have big boys in their JVs. This includes BG, Hess and ConocoPhilips. Also Santos isn't far away. He has gone to the Supreme Court in WA to get back his old job.... and be sacked properly! The bad news is the stock market does not like legal issue to overhang.

POG

When big Ben announced the unlikelihood of QE3, the gold bears came out in force and DJ Index also slipped. But a week or so later, he uttered that QE3 may be necessary as the economy is still down. POG went up like a rocket but didn't fully recover. And he has repeated his statement and POG has fallen again.

Of course, logic has only limited role in investment... in the SHORT term. Goldman Sachs agrees with me! The USA has to print more money as a way of keeping the USD competitive and stimulate its economy, and there is only that much gold being produced. Central banks around the world are looking for alternatives to the USD to hold up the value of their currencies. No, they cannot use gold only as there is too little around but they can buy whatever they can when the POG falls. Turkey is going to force its producers to sell to its central bank. Governments can be such bastards! And never learn from history.

I am still very comfortable with investing in gold and oil. Gas can be a problem due to the fact that the USA will be exporting its shale gas and China holds the world's biggest unexplored reserve. While Aussie shale gas producers are being marked up at the moment, you have to guess when is the best time to dump and run.

SVL

http://minesite.com/news/silver-mines-has-now-firmly-established-webbs-as-australias-highest-grade-unexploited-silver-deposit

I love it when a tipster agrees with me AFTER I have topped up the stock (my third parcel). While the market is ignoring it and dumping it, I am waiting for the share price to fall back even farther before doing another top up. But now, it looks like I might have missed my chance. However, I am happy for the price to start drifting upwards.

Like OBL, each buy had been lower than the previous one. So I am still at a loss with SVL but patience does have its reward in investment.

Mining announcements

Why does one announcement make people stand up and notice... and buy while another is totally ignored? Olympic Dam is the biggest uranium deposit and it is near TRF's recently located gravity and magnetic anomaly. TAS recently got RIO to pay for its exploration because deep drilling is very expensive. The risk is also very high.

But the lastest TRF find, adjacent to the first lot of magnetic anomaly, has been shown to contain 41% hematite with decent gold and small amount of silver in it. Yet, the share price continued to fall after the first good announcement.

And if you look at PRU's announcement yesterday, you would think shareholders who sold down today must be absolute morons!

Great! That gave me the opportunity to top up. I like to buy when people are either ignoring good news or shedding their shares.

Down stocks

Today, I picked up 3 top-ups. I can't resist when the price is down or near the trough.

I read WWI's announcement last Monday. If you read in between the lines, you will see artisanal miners (thieves who help themselves to surface gold) digging in its tenement in Irian Jaya. The best bit is these robbers are using helicopters to ferry their equipment and other necessities. What does this mean? For me, it means "buy some more!". I have been making a loss with WWI but it is better to buy when the price is cheap or when it is falling in market value.

I also collected TRF because what it found recently could be enticing to the big boys.

When the share price of AMX is below the SPP price, I would rather buy it on the market especially if institutions and sophisticated investors had paid more for it just before the SPP.

ABU

Some stocks pump out no news and yet the share price keep going up. The management does not know why.

And then you have ABU with persistently good news and the share price is stagnant... and now drifting downwards. It has a lot of drilling samples waiting for analysis. These should be coming out in frequently intervals. Maybe, it has been so good, people are expecting 'better' results.

I had a top-up buy at 4.6c. I have just amended it to 4.7c.

Capital gains

Up till June 2011, I expected my portfolios to do badly. But my 'accountant' just told me that I have capital gains tax to pay! One of my biggest gains is AND. I bought it for a song when few were interested in it. And it continued to produce more good announcements. It got taken over by a Canadian miner.

And then there is AGO taking over my best investment, i.e. GIR. Because my portfolio became top heavy with AGO, I sold some AGO at between $3.34 to $3.70. Maybe it is time to buy back some of these AGO shares as it is below $2.90 now. However, it is now a mature stock with little prospect for doubling in the near term.

BHP had a share buy-back and generated a lot of capital loss for me :-)

So, I should pat myself on the back. Paying tax on capital gain means I have performed well.

WHN

WHN went down to 4.8c at close yesterday. And it is up a little to 4.9c today. For those who want some excitement, this stock is worth betting on. There may be nothing around Seychelles Island but potentially, there could be a lot too.

Now that East Africa is becoming a hotbed for exploration, with quite a lot of success, this region could attract the attention of the big boys in the oil business. I first bought PCL when it under 2c. My first parcel of WHN was at 3.3c in July 2011. The top up (28/2/12) was at 4.8c.

Already, some are interested in their surveys....

Shale Gas

I think the Qataris, Yanks, Chinese, Indians, Koreans, Singaporeans, Malaysians, etc, etc are coming. Virtually, all the shale gas explorers have jumped today. Only SXY which has a 'dry' well announcement today, failed to climb.

Actually, the Chinese need not come. They have the biggest reserve in the world of shale gas. If you own shares in these shale gas stocks, you will have to sell eventually because the market will be saturated with LNG.

RAU and PCL

Just look at the different directions stocks can take. One has got good tenement in Bolivia but the far-left government is wanting to stick its nose into the mining industry. Of course, the leader has not learned from history. So RAU has withdrawn its involvement resulting in decimation of its share price. But watch the stock when the Bolivian government realizes what a stupid mistake it has made.

And PCL is all hype but the surrounding/nearby tenements are getting oil strikes. Hence, its share price has exploded. Best of all, PCL does not have to pay for drilling cost. It pays by allowing the big boys, like Tullows to pay for the farm-in and also the exploration cost.

Shale Gas

If anyone has noticed recently, the shale gas stocks in ASX have risen strongly. I had many stocks that have variable performance but mostly losses. However, in the last month, a lot of them have move strongly upwards.

I have been harping about Australian shale gas stocks for a long time. My faith in them was tainted because a lot of them continued to fall. However, when the world takes an interest, the prices of most of them have risen.

I noticed BKP moving into the green zone. OBL has more than doubled. COE up 75%. BRU up 35%. ICN up 14%. I don't know where the money is coming from but it is nice to correct about investing for the long term, based on what is predicted to be in the ground of these stocks. BPT has already more than doubled. Even MMR is starting to move in the right direction but currently is a loss. Note that MMR has tenements in Canning Basin. SXY is one of my star performers at over 600% gain since 2008.

Canning Basin

What is going on? Has lots of oil or gas been discovered that the market does not know of?

OBL has been going berserk and BRU has gone up by 35% since I bought on 9/3/12. OBL has been good to me just recently only. It has been falling since I first bought in Oct 2010 at 4.2c. When it fell, I bought more the following month at 3.2c. Then it dropped to 3c in May 2011 so I bought more. And in Sept 2011, I topped up, with greatly misplaced faith at 2.5c. I must be the ultimate contrarian. It went down further to 2c in Dec 2011. My wife must think I am the absolute idiotic buyer.

Today, OBL closed at 8.2c, rising due to the same reason why I bought into it in the first place.

SPP and Entitlements

Not all are worthy of attention. Why would you buy into any rights/SPP issue if the market price is cheaper?

This AM, after begging for cash from the Finance Controller, I put in the money for ALK, WCL, EXR (all rights) and BUL (SPP). The biggest chunk is for BUL because of the big disparity between the current high share price and with SPP and you can apply for up to a maximum of AUD$15,000.

I ignored GOA's SPP because it is cheaper to buy the shares in the market (which I did). At the moment, AMX share price is below the placement and SPP price! Those sophisticated investors and institutions must be pissed off about it! Likewise, I topped up DRA on the market because the rights issue was more expensive by a few cents. However, the share price of DRA has been falling! Incredible. DRA is a gold producer with many good announcements, yet investors are selling.

There are more rights issues and SPP coming. It is important to weigh carefully. Sometimes, a cheap offer could end up a disaster while others can fly. A good example was RSL. I didn't buy but it soon jumped AFTER the close of the SPP offer. I can't buy everything as these issues can suck up a lot of spare cash.

Asia or more specifically, the Far East

http://minesite.com/news/that-was-the-week-that-was-in-hong-kong-and-australia

Not many people can read in between the lines. What Our Man In Oz is trying to say is that for a small country like Australia, the source of capital to develop the mines will be coming from Asia, especially the Far East. Whether Barnaby Jones or Bob Katter wants to make noise about foreign investors, the truth is Australia does not have enough home-grown capital. The investor base is too small for what the country is endowed with.

Once the Chinese discover how cheap Australia is, you will see a swarm of Asian investors parking their money here. Don't blame them; Aussies are selling their assets cheaply and Aussies prefer to play sports. Or rather watch sports. I am buying before the Asians wake up from their ignorance about the ASX... and while fellow Aussies are indulging in sports.

POG

The European stocks are definitely US poodles. The end sessions of the DAX and FT follow the DJ like a puppy. It went down and then up in sync. Brainless.

ASX is now a Chinese sharpei! Not brainless but FULLY dependent on China's future!

And suddenly, POG has shot up again. I am not privy to why that is so but it is certainly nice to know that there is a floor. With a jump like that in POG and with DJ in positive territory (at the moment), I can expect to be rewarded on Monday. I hope.

Canning Basin

The WA government is allowing fracking without referral to the environmental body at the Perth Basin. I don't know if this is for sure. But it has caused a rise in the share price of shale gas/oil explorers with tenements there.

Presumably, based on the same notion, both BRU and OBL has jumped (exploring in Canning Basin near Broome). Neither were profitable for me. But now the newly re-bought BRU has jumped 30% in under a month and OBL has doubled since I bought it. OBL has been steadily falling since I bought the first parcel. Virtually, each subsequent parcel was cheaper to buy so I must have had a lot of faith in this stock. Now it is rising and rising. So my intuition has been correct :-)

Nice to feel smart. But shale gas has an unpredictable future. USA is now an exporter of gas and China has more shale gas than the USA but not fully explored yet.

African governments

Stability is not a word you can use to describe a typical African government. One of the 'joys' of investing in Africa is that you get to know about military coups... earlier than most people.

Not long ago, drunken soldiers were roaming the streets in Ougadougou, the capital of Burkina Faso. That fizzled out. Now it is the turn for Mali. Since the ousting of Gaddafi, the Tuareks who were armed by the dictators are moving on the government of Mali. Why there is a military coup there? Well, Africans have nothing better to do!

China sneezed...

How things have changed! China sneezed, and the Dow Jones got the cold last night. Australia will be heading towards the ICU soon with a severe bout of pneumonia. Luckily one sneeze does not mean an impending illness. So maybe, because of Chinese New Year, the manufacturing figure was not that good.

ASX

I started buying shares in ASX from 2001 and continued until 2003, bought at between $10.92 to $16.88 per share. Shares bought after that period have been sold off. But from 2006, the share price has not really performed. However, I keep the stock now for its healthy dividends. It is consistent and 90% of its profit is paid out in dividend. The stock exchange is actually very cheap to run, and fees are easy for it to collect.

Recently, it faced a young upstart from Japan. While Chi-X has not made much inroad, it will in time make a dent in ASX income. It can nit-pick the choice morsels, just like upstarts in the aviation industry.

While ASX continues to pay good franked dividend, I will keep it.

AUD

AUD is expected to continue to fall towards parity. I think below parity is more likely and that would be a blessing for Australia. Travelers love a strong AUD but that is purely for selfish reason. A low AUD is better for the nation. Anyone who borrows in foreign currency is pretty dumb unless your earning is overseas-based.

NST

In the last week or so, gold stocks have mostly fallen along with the POG. But at USD$1650 per oz, most Aussie gold explorers and producers are still profitable. So why are the gold stocks being dumped? I have no idea why people are only interested in short term factors. But I love it when it gives me the opportunity for topping up my stocks.

A week ago, I put in a low bid for NST. So today, I collected my next parcel of NST. If you read its last announcement (6/3/12), then you know the meaning of "spectacular"; at over 3kg per ton but over a short length, 1m only. Of course, when it was first announced, the share price went over $1. And then, amnesia set in and the price has been falling since!

CTP

Nothing goes up without coming down.... That is often the sad tale in the ASX.

Today, CTP went flying first and then landed before a trading halt was announced. This announcement is most likely a disaster. Management changes are almost never welcomed by investors, especially when preceded by a trading halt.

One noted commentator in Hotcopper thinks the oil discovered in Central Australia is not flowing either. But when the share price shot up yesterday and today? If I know, I would be a very wealthy man.

I have no way of predicting what will happen when the trading halt is lifted. Most likely a downward crunch. One lesson is never to jump into the bandwagon if you don't know what is going on. Jumping off when the share price is roaring up is different as you may make a profit!

Gadolinium

This morning, I read about a new use for this REE. It is so recent that http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gadolinium has nothing on refrigeration!

The new application might be commercialized. But the article didn't tell me which ASX stocks have discovered that metal. As usual, there will be a long lag time before the usage translates into profit.

In time to come, GBE will be a beneficiary. It has REE and niobium. But it is still a loss for me.

ASX and the smaller companies

I read this AM that the ASX is going to subsidize broker research into smaller companies to make them more appealing to investors who can't make the decisions themselves.

For me, it is good and bad news. Those that I own and get a good tick, will improve. Those with a bad report, will get a marked down. But worse, those I want to buy, will increase in price as those stocks will be "spotted" by those lazy investors. I much prefer them to be hidden behind a curtain, only be revealed when profit announcements or good drilling results are made.

However, sometimes, no matter how many good reports are publicized, the share price can remain in the sewers. I love buying the contents in the trough! Good fertilizers.

Recent purchases... DRA, AZH, IDL, GOR and PRU

Those were losses but I don't know for how long. I don't buy expecting the shares to crumble but often they do! However, there are no good reason for the share prices of those stocks to continue falling. As you maybe able to tell, 4 out of 5 are gold stocks. I am still an optimist when it comes to POG. The floor is still above USD$1600 per oz.

Against these, I have done well with BPT, WHN and BRU. These are oil and gas stocks. And of course, the SPP for CTP is now very profitable but share price cannot keep rising. Tomorrow, I expect CTP to land back on earth.

WHN

It is very nice when a stock that you own, gets a speeding ticket from the ASX for the unexplained rise in share price today.

Even better still, I topped up recently at 4.8c late last month. It leaped up to 5.6c today. The recent hype is too good to ignore.

CTP

I have yet to sell a single share in CTP even when the share price was routed in Oct 2010. Oil was found but it didn't flow to the surface. But in 2011, when oil was re-discovered in another drilling, the market started to notice.

The total tenement size for CTP looks like the state of Victoria in the middle of Australia. That big!

I just don't understand why the market didn't warm to it purely for the size of exploration tenements, considering the basins are expected to have shale oil/gas.

Those who bought into the SPP at 5.5c must be cursing for a few weeks but are rejoicing now. A UK investment research company put up a publication and the share price went ballistic. For me, that is a welcome rise as it means I am now in the green zone. My first parcels in 2007-2008 cost me 22c, 23c and 15c. My bigger parcels were topped up in the last 2 years at <=6.1c.

This stock will only 'mature' when it can confirm the size of the oil, gas or helium discovery. Until then, it is a high-stake investment.

IVR

The new management of Talbot Group is not very smart. Ken Talbot will be turning in his grave. IVR has been scoring good hits with its drilling program and those idiots sold off its IVR holdings. Of course, it has made a lot of money already but you can see the bright future for IVR, with hits after hits. Ag has industrial usage unlike Au.

Maybe Talbot Group knows something that a gasman would know nothing about...

RMP and RRS

These are conjoint twins; their best prospective tenements are jointly held.

When the share prices are rising as they have been, even in a down market, and their tenements are in countries with less than accountable governments, you can almost be certain that inside information is flowing 'freely' (for the dishonest people) out of their drilling programs. But it could also be someone manipulating the share price.

The more likely scenario is inside information. You can manipulate share prices only up to a certain extent and it is a gamble. Inside information provides instant wealth to those who cheat.

BKP

All around BKP, the shale gas explorers are racing up in share price... but this one with quite big tenement holdings is falling. What is the logic? I am at a small loss with BKP but until the cash from takeover of EXT arrive, I can't buy any more stock in that portfolio. Quite a few energy stocks have reversed their fortune lately. This one is a standout, going backwards!

POG

I am not privy to information regarding who are trading gold in the world markets. However, there appears to be a floor for POG. Speculators must be dumping but a recent write-up indicated that central banks are buying. Yet dumb investors are still chucking gold off! Perhaps they bought gold a long, long time ago when it was worth as much as copper is today.

Gold stocks had a varied performance yesterday. I am not so interested in rises but I had been trying to watch those that had fallen. GOR, AZH and PRU, my recent top ups, have not been performing well. That gives me more opportunities but I am conserving cash for SPPs, rights, etc. And my super fund has to pay out pensions, too!

There is one rise that I am interested in... PIROA. This had such a stellar performance that I should consider selling some. My reluctance is tempered by the suspicion that there is a takeover impending.

EWC

It has such a great business strategy in Indonesia. Own the coal mines, build a generator, and sell the electricity; everything is done locally. Yet, for years, it failed to make paper profit for me. In 2007, I made my first purchase at 87c and that parcel is still at a loss. In 2008, placement was for $1.20 in May; but I was not a privileged shareholder/investor. I topped up in July 2008 for 87.5c; still at a loss, too.

In 2009, after considering its great business strategy, I reluctantly topped up at 46c. Because the share price has fallen by nearly half, I was able to buy a bigger parcel to bring my average price down significantly.

After more than 5 years, the business model is starting to be recognized and the share price is moving as it should. I am glad that it has shifted into the green zone for me at a net 19% profit. Considering inflation and loss of interest earned, it is in reality, a loss. However, unless the Indonesia government changes the rules of investment, this should be the start of good performance. Inshallah!

GOR and BDR

In between the lists, I managed to buy BDR as it has fallen significantly yet it continued to produce good announcements.

Because I can't watch my portfolios closely, I wasn't looking at GOR which has also fallen today. POG is going up again... central banks are buying up the gold that speculators are dumping.

IVR

Mr Talbot, the clever investor died in a plane crash less than 2 years ago. Interestingly, he was following behind me in a few investments but he had better success than me! I sold out of SDL because it has no money to develop the railway infrastructure but the Chinese moved into it.

Now the Talbot Group has moved out of IVR. I don't think it is a clever move but Talbot is no longer at the helm.

RRS

If any of you bought RRS, you will noticed it has gone up recently based on oil show in Puntland. I have no idea whether it is going to be in commercial quantity or not. The seismic studies suggests it is not small but many explorers end up with nothing. I paid very little for it so I am staying put. There are success elsewhere with this stock. Bu the big elusive ones are in Georgia and Somalia. There was failure in Georgia but there are more drilling to be done.

If you are a chicken or contented with a small decent profit, then sell now. Remember, a profit is a profit. And the most important thing in any investment is... not to make losses!

GTE

For the slow movers, here is a highly speculative but very exciting stock. GTE is near SFR's Degrussa copper mine (which has just recently started production). Neighbors are starting to run up when they hit rich copper deposits. I have missed on those but it is impossible to jump into bed with every holder of tenement around SFR. In fact, ALY has been making me losses for a long while now.

I bought GTE when it was worth something, when it was worth nothing and when it was grossly ignored. I was even given free options and free in-specie shares in it. And I have 2 separate parcels of it. When it was running hot, it was molten hot but the share price has cooled a lot.

Most investors are pretty ignorant of what it promises. Its tenement appears to have much bigger lodes of the copper (and ?gold) than SFR but only by special surveillance techniques. So after the drilling has started and the analyses have been performed in a laboratory, then you will know whether it is a copper El Dorado or a junkyard. I have buckled up for the ride and topped up during bad troughs but not recently :-)

Tin stocks

Each time I buy KAS or VMS, it is because the price of tin was going up and the market was uninterested in these two. But my logic has been failing me when it comes to tin. Why? None of these two boys are actual producers.

But last week, helped by Toyota taking a strategic holding and agreement with KAS, and my recent top up at 22c in Jan 2012 and another top up at 20c in July 2011, I have finally stepped over the green zone with this stock.

KZL

It is a hassle dealing with city stockbrokers so I never dumped my KZL shares and have seen it tumbling and tumbling down the hill like Jill.

This is a stock I would have dumped if it was within my CommSec portfolio because Zn is a money-losing metal. Why? China has a lot of its own. Unlike REEs, even though China has a lot of its own, there is a strong demand for them outside China. Zn? It just piles up.

When you invest in resource stocks, you need to know the demand side of the equation. That is why if China sneezes now, Australia will go into the ICU with severe respiratory failure. Meanwhile, KZL has reached the bottom of the hill and is unlikely to be 'more' crippled unless price of Zn collapses.

REE stocks

Early Dec 2011, I dumped all my LYC stocks. When political interference comes into focus with any stock, sentiment and illogical valuation start to meddle with the share price... but I like REE stocks. Explorers rarely make profit unless you bought when they were tiddlers. However, once the prospect of mining-and-processing it comes into the equation, then the share price will start to lift.

GGG (in Greenland but it got bashed due to its uranium position) and GBE (in southern Africa) have been uncovering more and more REEs. NTU is finding more of the better valued HREE in Australia. In November 2011, I took position in ALK. Timing is rarely perfect so I sustained a loss for a while. But as the market realizes that the future prospect is good, this stock is starting to run up. I didn't even know that I have entered the green zone with it until Our Man In Oz pointed it out.

POG... its floor

I love dumpers! And having idiotic speculators around when you are not forced to sell (or buy), is actually a financial blessing.

Few people have time to read Our Man In Oz, one of my best tipsters. He is analytical in his weekly report on Australian resource equities. I have written a few times that the price of gold in the longer term cannot be easily manipulated because it becomes a function of supply and demand. It cannot be 'created' but has to explored, discovered, mined after a lengthy bureaucratic, environmental and financing process, extracted and refined, and then kept secure after purchase. In ancient AND modern world, it has little commercial application but it generated its own 'intrinsic' value. Luckily women love it! It does not decay but can be stolen.

As usual, when people sell down gold and the price falls, someone will want more of it. And late last week, it was the central banks! These are biggest hoarders of the metal. And if they are the trusted keeper of the wealth of a nation, then you cannot say that they were dumb to buy from dumpers. I hope Warren Buffett is reading this posting; he is a very smart man but his wisdom contradicts the collective direction of the central banks of the world. You cannot print gold.... not yet.

What is absolutely interesting but it didn't materialized is I wanted to buy physical gold last week when it fell below USD$1640 per oz. Maybe I should have been the purchasing officer of a central bank!

Choice between sports and money...

Given that choice, Aussies prefer sports. That is a comment by Our Man in Oz...

http://minesite.com/news/that-was-the-week-that-was-in-australia-325

That is actually my fortune. I am hopeless at sports. I couldn't even beat my younger brother in badminton when I was little and he was sub-atomic. I only played in competitive soccer because if the team didn't included me, I take home the only ball in the community. It was mine.

Had more than a few Aussies taken a keen interest in their investments, I would have a hard time beating them at their own 'sports'.

PCL

I last topped up PCL in Aug 2011 at 9.3c. Markets were tumbling and I felt a sense of foolishness buying PCL. I was proven to be a fool but luckily only briefly!

Last Friday, it closed at 18c. What is bright for PCL is how many big boys are farming-in into either its tenement or surrounding tenements. In the last quarter of 2012, spudding is expected to commence in off-shore Kenya. Of course, the hype is big... >8 billion barrels of oil.

The Namibian block is creating a lot of interest as more big boys (including BP) is moving into that region. Shell is making a bid for a JV partner of PCL.

I am holding onto to PCL but if the SP falls again, it might be tempting to top-up again. Already my PCL has gone up so much, it has become more valuable than my BHP, STO, ANZ and WES shares. These were bought in big parcels when the bulk of my superannuation portfolio was advised by Citibank. None has risen like PCL at nearly 7x net, first parcel bought in April 2009 at 1.3c.

SPI and DOW

There is disparity this AM; DOW is down 16 points and SPI is up 27 points. Have we become a Shar-pei rather than a Poodle?

China just has to sneeze now and Australia will be in ICU with severe pneumonia. How relationship has changed. Meanwhile the defence treaty is still with the USA. Someday soon, a modern day Admiral Zheng He (same Mandarin surname Zheng as me, but unrelated because he was a eunuch) will sail into northern Australia...

I doubt the ASX will jump on Monday. Commodity prices have not moved that much, nor POG or POO.

Seen a few tipsters now ranting about being contrarian by buying gold or gold stocks. Sometimes, it feels so lonely! I have topped up on AZH, PRU, GOR and DRA. No one seems interested but based on my trading history, I usually make my best profits when... no one seems interested. I have also re-bought into BRU after a long silly absence. When prices were falling, I also topped up on HAR and IDL. I like BPT but its share price had not lifted much with good announcements. I sold off RIO at $71 to create cash (for SPP in RIA) but when I sold out of GMI, I bought back some of the RIO shares at cheaper prices.

I also like the excitement of WHN. This will only rise with farm-ins because WHN does not have the finances to drill in Seychelles. For me, this is a future PCL.

There were plenty of rights and SPPs but not all are worthy of participating. CTP was down after its SPP but yesterday, it received a speeding ticket from the ASX asking it to explain a big jump in its share price, making the SPP profitable now. RIA only gave me less than maximum shares in its recent SPP (30c) because it was too popular; now over 40c.

Meanwhile EXT is taken over by a Chinese company (just sent it my acceptance form) and SBL by a Singaporean company. I have also sold out of HUN (nice profit) to a Thai company. I have elected not to sell SBL yet because I consider the offer to be ridiculously low but over 50% of investors have sold out.

EXT is a big profit for me because I bought it for a song.... when it has already known of a major uranium discovery in Namibia but it was too small a stock to be considered by big investors. Lucky me!

POG

As an atomic trader, I am not privy to information about major movement in gold. Part of the reason for POG to fall quickly recently is because traders are bailing out after gambling on QEIII from the Feds. They expected the POG to go up but instead there was no free lunch from the Feds so they were caught short. Hence, they have been liquidating their gold 'holdings' to minimize the losses.

When these gamblers have cleared, then gold will follow its demand-supply equation. So while the POG is down, I reckon it is a good window for topping up gold stocks. I have already topped up on PRU and hope to collect some ABU as well.

NST

The word "spectacular" is grossssly abused by a lot of stocks when announcing their discoveries. So far, if you read NST recent announcement, you will agree it had a spectacular drilling result. The gold is not measured in grams but kilograms per ton.

Yet today, when the POG is down and the USA indices were not broadly up and the price of commodities fell, the ASX took a hit especially the gold sector where I have a lot of investment tied up.

The fall in PRU share price continues today. But why NST is lumped with the rest? That is market sentiment for you!

ABU

I put down my bid price from 4.8c to 4.6c because the POG has fallen back. The last sale price was 4.7c so another 0.1c fall will result in me topping up more ABU. However, I am behind some other investors at that price and will wait for my turn.

ABU

Investors are continuing to sell ABU. My bid to buy at 4.8c expired today so I put in another new bid at 4.6c. Tomorrow, I might collect the new shares. POG is falling but so is the AUD.

So far, all the drilling results have either been okay or spectacular. The laboratory assaying is taking a long time but there has been no bad result.

As long as POG is over USD$1600 per oz, my gold stocks should not crumble.

PRU

This is something I have not seen before but I am sure it happens every now and then. I put a buy at $2.51 and received late notification that I have topped up my PRU holdings. When I went to look at all the trades that went through today, the most fascinating happening today is what happened AFTER the market closed.

All day, the share price has been falling steadily from around $2.60 to around $2.50. Most trades were under $50,000, mostly a few very low thousands... like my trade. But when the market has closed, there were nearly $480,000 (total) worth, traded in 3 separate parcels at $2.61.

This implies someone, most likely a fund manager or a big brother, had transacted privately with another big holder to move the shares. Interesting! Yet, there are still stocks available for tomorrow at $2.52.

IOCG

IOCG doesn't mean anything to you? Well, the world's biggest deposit of uranium is found within an IOCGU deposit at Olympic Dam. But it isn't the only one around that area. WMC (taken over by BHP) found one at the last drilling on that site along time ago. It was also very deep, therefore, very expensive to find.

Since that, there has been another site (Carapeteena) discovered but taken over by a big brother. That was a private enterprise. It made the Australian Filipino geologist very rich but he was rewarded for his persistence.

Now, there are another 2 stocks in my ownership that have big prospective deposits. One is TAS, with RIO backing it. And now TRF has announced that it has found a big deposit too. There are others there too. BHP is already there.

TAS is now break even for me. I recently topped up at 11.5c in Jan/Feb 2012. It is now 15c.

These two stocks have unpredictable short term course but in the longer term, if the expensive and deep drilling confirms the existence of IOCG deposit, then both will be more than a 10-bagger. You have to be very patient though as this type of drilling takes a long time to materialize (due to special rig required and the duration of the drilling). Of course, if nothing is found and it was a false positive during earlier surveys. Interesting that Australia hosts the most numbers of this type of deposit in the world.

http://www.pir.sa.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0005/104198/Baker_Tim.pdf

PIROA

The history of this stock is interesting for me. I dumped all my ordinary shares (at a nice profit) when it had a lousy drilling result. But when directors started to amass shares in it after that event, I also joined in but I topped up only the options which were much cheaper. It would be very expensive to exercise them because it is 20c a piece.

Best of all, I had the opportunity to top up. So today, with a near 15% jump, it has become the second biggest parcel in my super fund, having risen 581% since 2010, It is not far from being the top stock.

My suspicion is there will be a takeover as a stock rarely rises like this unless there is rotten inside information.

In the meantime, AZH plunged before the decent announcement this arvo and BSR continues to drop. It is all very puzzling!

AZH

One drilling site result is very good and the other one is mediocre. The share price plunged by more than 12c from 87c today. So I went to top up one portfolio to give it a rounder number at 76.5c.

Someone at AZH is selling its holding. Notice "its" to imply an animal. I love it when an investor is dumping.

I cannot understand why. The numbers are not awful although gold is not the flavour at the moment. However at >USD$1670 per oz, the POG is still profitable for a lot of miners on the ASX.

Gold for hedging

Today, the Feds chairman said the US economy is doing well. So, all the bulls are out in force. And gold was trampled. But what a wonderful hedging instrument! It is still over USD$1600 per oz where most of my gold producers can still make a good profit.

So today, I don't expect my portfolios to do well. I have too many gold stocks. Gold stocks gave me a lot of alpha so it will be their turn to suffer.

BRU

I bought and sold BRU a long time ago under a different guise (not me, but the stock itself). It was at a loss because the market just didn't want to know about it. After a long delay, I recently bought into BRU. I have yet to pay for it! But it is nice to have made a small gain on it already.

While there is hardly any infrastructure in Canning Basin, it is near the Asian markets. Shale gas stocks have been mooted to be the next hot items, along with quality HREE stocks. The latter is a bit dubious as processing the elements is very expensive, slow and full of environmental controls. Just ask LYC.

I have sold out of LYC due to political interference in Malaysia. But when it has fallen back more, I might re-enter. I am not a greenie but a pragmatic capitalist with little desire to damage the environment.

Philosophy of "Uncertainty"

http://minesite.com/news/relax-this-uncertainty-is-normal

This agrees with me. Whenever the DJI climbs for a few days, "experts" come out to tell you that the market has turned. And the opposite can occur too when the bears come out and warn you that they were right all along.

I base my judgment of POO and POG, and then use the AUD exchange rate to determine the medium range. This AM, POO and POG are down but so is the AUD. So it is near status quo.

Super fund performance

Until June 2011, the accountant who I sleep with, often, told me yesterday that I made a paper gain. A decent paper gain. I was extremely impressed with myself. This includes new contribution and losses as well.

I don't have any Babcock and Brown collapses. But with market volatility, Greek issue, US debt, Japanese natural disaster/nuclear meltdown and poor outlook, I was expected a pelting.

Hence, I am pleased with myself. The next year, I have some good stocks but the blue chips are not really doing that well. But at least with the banks, I get good dividends and stability.

Sovereign risk... Indonesia

Freeport Moran is not an exemplary miner. Wages are low, profit is not ploughed back into the region and ecological management could be a lot better. Recent strikes have highlighted how dirty the situation is. Corruption in Indonesia is rife.

Now Indonesia has issued new mining rules and it states that it isn't aimed at Freeport Moran... but all miners. It makes me consider divesting out of this country but I expect there will be others planning an exodus as well.

POG and AUD, and POO

The US markets are still opened. So far the DJI is up over 20 points, the AUD is down below USD$1.06 and the POG has gone over USD$1712 per oz. Meanwhile the Greek debt issue is postponed for a bit longer. This is the best combination for my stocks on Monday.

POO is up too so that will be good for my O&G stocks. In spite of news of excessive shale gas production in the USA and China starting to explore its own shale gas, the shale gas stocks in Australia are starting to be recognized. I had a few stocks in this sector which once performed well on hype and then during the GFC, they almost vaporized. OBL is now a paper profit, along with ICN (which doubled once!). Of course, I still have losses... NDO, OEL, VIL, PSA and ROC are the worst but these are not Australian shale gas companies. However, when they get a good hit... I hope... it might reverse their fortunes.

PCL

One portfolio did well... mostly due to PCL. And the other, slightly below average.

PCL is racing away for 2 reasons. Its tenements in offshore Kenya have attracted attention of the big boys. And in Namibia, the tenement just south of it looks like it might have lots of oil in it; no drilling yet.

I bought into BRU at $2.72 after resisting for some time but resistance is useless when the drilling results have been very good recently. If the next drilling result is good, then I know that I have made the right decision. If it is bad, then bad luck.

BRU

http://www.buruenergy.com.au/getfile/643.pdf


The latest drilling result from yesterday showed gas bearing reservoir of 1300m. Em...

How do you resist buying back into BRU?

Insurers

I sold off all my insurance stocks sometime ago.

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/financial-services/funding-storm-brewing-for-insurers-as-funds-increase-costs/story-fn91wd6x-1226294103210

If you make a big profit, you are seen to have overcharged or you have made profit out of people's misery. Government wants to stick its nose in, without explaining to voters how insurers work. People want cheap insurance but do not want to consider the fine prints. The simple arithmetic does not work that way.

RRS and RMP

Early this morning, I noticed that RRS share price has jumped 25% in LSE. It announced that oil has been found but this is still early stage of the exploration. Nothing can be said about the quality or quantity yet.

Still oil is located and you can expect more good news. Unfortunately, I think only one reader bought RRS. After conversion to ordinary shares from the options, it did not do well for a while. One failed drilling (dry hole) does not mean it is a failure but the market dumped a lot of RRS stocks for a while.

These two stocks are together a lot of the time.

POG

It is getting close to USD$1700 per oz again. If it goes over that mark and the DJI goes up tomorrow, then I can expect my portfolios to regain a big chunk of its recent loss.

OBL

Here is a shale gas stock that has moved. In fact, it has climbed a steep wall.

LNG ceased to be its 'substantial' shareholder and the share price of OBL has been climbing! Maybe, there is a big gun moving into the share registry. I have sustained losses in OBL for a long time but I just wouldn't sell it as it has "prospect". I made the mistake of selling BRU some time ago when I knew the market did not understand this stock but the share price was low, low, low. I was the idiotic seller of BRU then!

AZH

I have enough AZH shares so when I put in a very low bid to buy, I wasn't expecting to collect any shares. Not only did I get to top up with that small parcel, it was the lowest successful bid at 75c for the day. It is so hard to believe that there are idiots out there prepared to dump such a great stock. Within 24 hours, it has hit 89c. That is almost 20% in one day.

You better hope that idiot does not run your any of your investments!

AZH

There was a massive dump of AZH shares early this morning. Why? You will have to ask the idiotic seller(s). I pick a small parcel at 75c... the trough so far. It has gone up to 85c but still down 4c from yesterday. I have made 13.3% on this small parcel already!

Only a small sector of its 8000sqkm has been explored and so far, the hits have been great.

ASX plunged... China sneezed

As each year goes by, we are becoming more a Chinese puppy.

In the midst of the plunge, POG is still over USD$1700 per oz and AUD has fallen below USD$1.07. I put low bids to buy for many stocks this AM and recently. Today, I collected all my DRA at $1.07 and GOR at 34.5c.

Will I regret? I think the market will fall further as the Greeks will still default. The Chinese government has spoken. But while POG is still just over USD$1700 per oz, I am still happy with gold stocks. The worst sector in my portfolio was gold. But you wonder why it got swept up in the sentiment. Tomorrow, if the POG holds, then my worse than average fall will hopefully recover.

NST

I didn't have too much cash when I first bought NST Nov 2011; bought long after its spectacular rise. So far it has only been a 7% rise.

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20120306/pdf/424tzchbysp3gt.pdf

Today, with an announcement like the above, it would jump significantly in a down market. The best grade is over 3kg/t. Yes, not 3g/t.

OYM

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20120306/pdf/424tzmcr6s8t1z.pdf

What I cannot understand is why is the market so fervently against investing in stocks that dish out good announcements? It has 3 million oz of Au and expect to find more gold. So far, no one is protesting at its mining site in Bau, Sarawak... because 3 million oz of Au has already been dug out there historically.

BPT and other shale gas/oil explorers

Guess what Tim Treadgold discussed in Eureka Report today? He named 6 shale gas companies. But all these are mature companies. If you want excitement, there are better stocks to invest in. These are still cheap compared to those 6 stocks. There is CTP, ICN, OBL, BKP, COE and MMR within my portfolio.

Of the 6 stocks tipped by Tim, I just topped up BPT today at $1.53 (I have 2 parcels, one 50% profit and the other 100%). SXY has been sexy for a long time. I have >500% rise since I invested in it. AWE had make me money in the past but the remnant shares have not been performing well due to a string of bad announcements over the last 2 years. I sold off BRU some time ago as it wasn't perform well. Well.... life cannot be all rosy; it would be unreal.

Today's trades

I couldn't resist topping up RIO after I sold some at $71 to fund my RIA's SPP. Then I sold off GMI as the management is charging too much and the stock has not done well.

With the cash, I was going to use it for entitlements and SPP but today, I collected more DRA stocks at below the rights issue price. I also went for BPT after it announced another Egyptian oil discovery... but it share price went down. I bought because the share price fell. Good announcement coupled with fall in share price is like a red rag to me!

LSA

I am surprised myself how well this stock has performed. Last year when it crashed below 70c, I managed to top up at 70c.

Today it jumped more than 10% to end at $1.60. Was it easy to make the decision to top up in Aug 2011? Of course! I was using simple arithmetic. The PE ratio was just under 1. And more gold deposits were expected to be discovered. How difficult is it to decide?! However, bear in mind that there are other stocks like this but have not outperformed. Why one stock flies and others languish? I cannot explain idiotic judgment by other investors.

Shale Gas

Last year, shale gas company in Texas costs USD$25000 per acre. You can buy BPT for the equivalent of $406 per acre.

http://www.thebull.com.au/articles/a/26401-opportunities-galore-in-aussie-shale-gas-boom.html

Is that true? If it is, Australia can be bought for a song. Energy cost in the USA has come down due to the abundance of shale gas. While Greenies have been jumping up and down about the hazards of fraccing, the Yanks are not complaining about cheap gas.

I have a dilemma at the moment. If I hold onto shale gas stocks for too long, the USA is going to start exporting gas soon. And China has an even bigger reserve of shale gas but it has to decide whether to allow fraccing. So eventually, the two biggest markets have enough energy supply and will not need Aussie gas. Meanwhile, Japan is looking at tapping into underwater trapped methane gas.

Oil explorers

These are extremely high risk investments. If it hits a good oil field, then its share price gets a rocket liftoff. But when it is dry, it becomes a carcass... until it finds oil in another drilling. The truth is drilling in even the best sites is often unsuccessful. Sometimes, the hype before the drilling can be extremely convincing. Just look at MMR.

I have money tied up in TPT, MEO, WHN, KAR, PCL, ROC, NEN, NDO, OEL plus quite a few onshore ones like BPT, COE, BKY, SXY, RRS, RMP and CTP. The process of getting a drill and actually drilling takes a long, long time. But I am a patient investor. Wish me luck!

Gold stocks

Over the last 12 months, gold stocks have not performed that well. But the price of gold has gone from USD$1400 per oz to USD$1700 per oz. That really means they are undervalued especially for the producers. Luckily, my gold sector is balanced by LSA, AZH, PIROA, SLR and GOR which had a fantastic year.

In time to come, I am sure PRU, KCN, RMS, CGX, KMC will do better.

Stock performance

Why one stock races away while another stays decrepit? Much depends on sentiment and... who wants the stock. A stock can be great but no one (with a deep pocket) wants it so the share price just crumbles.

I have PIROA which has been galloping away. I first traded in PIR. I sold off (for a very nice profit) after a bad JORC announcement but when I found directors were buying its shares, I bought back into the stock via the options. And I topped up more when the market disregarded this stock.

With the pace of rising, this is now one of my biggest holdings. My suspicion is a bigger gold stock is stalking it and... accumulating. Soon, there will be a takeover announcement, I anticipate.

Meanwhile, ABU has been ignored, relative to its good announcements. SBL has been dumped by the management! BSR has been languishing. CHN isn't doing too well because its gold is in 'funny' places. RMS didn't live up with market expectation. CGX has never done well in spite of improvement in output. KCN has good mining practice and good management yet...

Mongolia

http://minesite.com/news/mongolia-the-new-frontier-country-powered-by-a-resource-based-economy

This is not a short article. But if you haven't been listening to me on Mongolian stocks, then don't bother reading! I have made good money out of these stocks and hope investors continue to ignore them.

GMI

I had made profit out of this stock before but today, it is a big loss, selling at 98c and 98.5c. Generally, when you pay others to look after your portfolio, there is a cost. GMI invests in all the biggest miners of the world. The guy who runs it controls the most resource stocks in the world through his fund management.

Using the cash, I bought back some of my RIO shares (sold $71 and bought back at around $66). The remainder will be used mostly for top ups and SPPs/rights.