Egypt

Political stability is the price you pay for an autocrat? It isn't stability but suppression.

On a longer term basis, the downfall of Mubarak must be better for all Egyptians. And if the majority want a religious government... so be it.

DJI went up this AM so investors must be accepting the dictator's fate. His poor son! He will no longer be the next president but he will enjoy his life in the USA or Switzerland.

GLF

After I bought in late 2009 at 4.2, the price has never recovered for a long time. A better verb to describe the share price is "plunged". I liked what the CEO said during the 2009 AMEC conference. When an opportunity arise, I topped up in Nov 2010 at 2.9c.

It is so nice to see the ASX Guru put a posting on it today when the ASX went down. Life can be sweet when you are patient. I am now onto a 60% profit for GLF. So nice to see it turns green.

Gold

Investors have terrible memories. Gold price has been falling. In good times, memories fade. It takes a Middle East crisis to reinforce the fact that gold is the natural hedging currency. You cannot creat it... or print it like the Yanks with the USD or artificially fix its value. And you cannot just produce it out of the ground. There is a limited amount of gold around.

While the US market fell for 2 reasons - lower GDP figure than expected and Hosni trying to retain his autocratic rule. His poor son can now forget about being Egypt's next dynasty president. This isn't North Korea!

Markets will fall on Monday but gold stocks might rally. However sentiment always overrides logic in the short term. And because the problem in located in the Middle East and the Suez canal might be closed, the price of oil (and the charges for cape vessels) will rise.

NB Cape vessels are those that are so large, they cannot go through those narrow canals and have to circumnavigate around the capes.

VOR

Yesterday, in the midst of ASX downward spiral, I had one bright spark. This saved me from a more severe drubbing yesterday. VOR explained its >50% on Friday by stating that its drilling program is yielding good results. Let us see what happens on Monday! Someone from Hong Kong must liked its Mongolian story.

I bought at around 2c in Sept 2010 and the rise yesterday was 3.3c to 9.1c a share. That is sweet! While on Monday I expect a fall back to earth, long term I expect a bigger rise. Its exploration ground is next door to China. And so far, it has been good news after good news.

MAK

The man has spoken. It is so nice that I got it before DH. I bought in Dec 2009 because RB had spoken. But it never quite performed for a long time. When the price of PO4 went up by 60% in April 2010, the share price never reflected that jump so I topped up then. My total paper profit is about 30%, still better than money in the bank earning piddly interest. Now that DH has spoken, I expect a more stellar performance from MAK.

RB calculated that its PO4 value was so cheap. And as far as I know, the price of P)4 has gone even higher since then. The arithmetic is so simple. But this Monday, there will be a general blood bath in the ASX. The Arab unrest is affecting world sentiment. There is no unrest in Korea, China, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Japan, Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand, NZ, Burma, Vietnam, Cambodia, Brunei, India, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, PNG and certainly not in Singapore. Even peaceful in Fiji at the moment. Our trade is tied up to Asia. So I reckon, Monday is a good day for topping up if you have the cash.

What is more, it is going to spin off TNT Mines with Tin and Tungsten in Tassie as the main attraction; both these metals are commanding premium prices at the moment. It is an in-specie distribution so I will need to top up when it floats.

Dow Jones

DJ Index is down... a lot this AM, by more than 158 points. The US market is not closed yet at the time of writing. But what I like is the AUD is up a little in value relative to the USD but the price of gold and oil have gone up by a lot more. A lot of my resource stocks are energy and gold. Kitco shows that copper price is still great, tin is near its peak (I have 2 tin stocks) and the price of uranium is still going up. SPI is down but these will affect the top 50 more than my commodity stocks. The focus of Aussie trade is now the Far East and India so we won't be as badly affected by events in the Middle East.

The Arab world is in turmoil but that is nothing new. There is fear of rising Islamic fundamentalism but even the religious sector is caught out by the sudden widespread unrest against ruthless ineffectual governments. In the longer term, getting rid of outdated dictators/strongmen cannot be bad for any society. These people are rarely benevolent.

PDY

HOR made a good announcement last week. Its share price sprang up instantaneously. In Hotcopper, someone asked about nearology. It is virtually enclosed by PDY. PDY has been rising slowly, without any spring in it. Because it is worth under 3c a share, I am contemplating adding it to my portfolio as a trading stock. I used to do that with IOH but sold just too early. However with IOH, I made a few hundred bucks with each trade so I can't complain. When you add it all up and annualize the gains, then it is quite spectacular.

SIH

After pondering for a while, and thinking the super fund will get another cash injection next month.... I went and top up SIH with a small parcel.

The gold is deep but mining in Indonesia is cheaper because the labour cost is lower. SIH already has a >1million oz gold JORC-compliant resource there and with these new results, you can be sure that there will be an upgrade soon.

The share price has gone up and then plateaued for a while now. And with this PM good announcement, it has not gone up much at all.

SIH

Aussies are fearful of Indonesians. It is a people smuggler haven; Abu Bakar Bashir lives there, Bali bombers originate from there, atrocities in Irian Jaya/East Timor, corruption is rife, they don't speak English, it is the biggest Muslim nation... and it is just next door.

Yet, there are Aussies scouring around the archipelago looking for minerals, successfully. I doubt any on my readers dare invest in SIH. I haven't look at the share price but I saw this announcement this PM. I had been topping up when it was down, last one in Oct 2010.

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20110127/pdf/41wd4ff4fj0zhn.pdf

ABU

My stocks have not been doing well in the last week. When the ASX jumps up a lot, my stocks rarely perform well. The ASX All Ords is based on the top 50 or ASX 200 is based on the top 200.... I think.

But today, with only a small rise, the resource sector is doing well... for me. Just look at the report from ABU's activity http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20110127/pdf/41wcylflp6gfp8.pdf

You cannot believe why the share price is FALLING!!!! What is wrong with the market? How do people read announcements? Maybe I am misreading the thickness, the grade, the slope, the strip ration, the depth of the deposit, the unreliability of rock chips, etc, etc.

So today, if you ask me what gold shares would I buy? I would buy shares that no one wants for no good reasons. If you give me money, I would buy BSR, GMM and ABU. But all these are risky shares. Risky? BSR and ABU have had good announcements. And GMM has explained why the last drilling results were not great; it has not reached its target depth.

CHN

I still have DRA. Slow but decent progress with each good announcement and it is a gold PRODUCER.

It used to be a JV partner with CHN in Eritrea but it quit the region to concentrate on its Scandinavian resources. That is how I heard about CHN. I almost went "bankrupt" today because I put a low for CHN and collected some shares in it. So I had to beg my accountant to put extra $$$ into my super account to pay for it in 3 days.

This company is in its early stage as a future producer. Will it be a ten-bagger? Only if it strikes more gold with exploration. I looked at its presentation last year and notes its low production cost with high grade Au but it isn't a big deposit (ie under 1 million oz of Au).

This evening, I had to put much lower prices for my buys otherwise I could be naked if more buys get through!

ERN

Today ERN made a good announcement. But because gold is not the current flavour, the share price went down. The other risky factor is of course, Congo. This is Tarzan territory. He won't survive these days because the Africans now carry AK-47s.

No spare cash at the moment but this one has flown below the radar at even Hotcopper. It is simply fascinating how some Aussies surface in the most exotic tenements! I am currently at a loss with ERN and that is the other reason for wanting to top up. Don't touch or consider this stock unless you want a roller coaster ride to oblivion or El Dorado.

I bought it because I saw an announcement in the ASX regarding a new tenement in Congo.

IMA

I topped up recently. But I wonder what is wrong with investors' thinking.

Here we have a company with a great zircon ground, and recently increased its tenement in WA, yet the market does not want it. The nearby processing plant owned by Tiwest apparently is running low on mineral sands to process. So it will be mutually beneficial if there is a JV.

I am still at a loss with this company but in time, someone will come in and make me a profit. Patience is a virtue in investment.

ELMO

On the 13/1/2011, it made a good announcement regarding potash in Congo. Ooops! The option price hardly moved or went down. I bought and when it didn't move, I thought maybe I made a mistake and the grades, while high, were below expectation. See my recent ELMO note.

And then it went into another trading halt... and more good grades were announced this AM. Just before the most recent trading halt, there was a delayed market response. My most recent top up has gone up by >30% and today, when the trading halt is lifted, then the options should also rise in value :-0

Pays to follow the gasman! And if the share price is low today, it is an opportunity to top up for me.... if I have spare cash.

The market and sports

Both are governed by mathematical principles. The difference is with sports, the ones who make the money are the media and the players.

The market has been falling in the last week. But by the law of average, you should see rises next week or even tonight at Wall Street. Short of terrible and awful news, markets around the world cannot keep going down. China's unexpected high GDP means her government clamping down on the economy; it hasn't been successful!

I am forever an optimist even though my wealth has been dealt a blow today and yesterday. Still I have done a lot better than most people. But like a lot of times in the past, for me, this is the best time to top up :-)

BKP, PCL and MMR

My wife is a greenie but I am the one managing "her" portfolio. Today, when BKP fell to 1.7c, I collected some shares in it.

If you look at the hype, then it is like a poorly rated Saudi Arabia of Australia. To be truly successful, oil and gas or even coal, has to be FOUND. But at 1.7c (it was even lower until someone highlighted its potential), I am prepared to take a high risk.

Just look at PCL today! It is still a 'believable' hype but someone with a deep pocket believes in it, giving it a big lift today.

And then you have MMR. Still full of believable hype in spite of failure at first bite. But investors are starting to move away from it after a brief rise last week following the big plunge when failure to find hydrocarbon was announced.

BDR

How the share price moves on a day to day basis is often dependent on market sentiment. Even when there is good news. So good announcement = falling share price is red rag to me. I sold SUN recently so with my wife's portfolio, I topped BDR up. The amount of gold being discovered in Brazil is great. I first bought at 25c in Aug 2010 and now I have to pay 86c. Sometimes, the market takes a few day to digest announcements but today's fall I think is purely due to sentiment. Of course, price of gold is down but it has been around USD$1365 per oz for a few days now.

China is increasingly hedging its currency to gold bullion. And Indians cannot resist gold...

Best days to buy stocks is when sentiment over-rides logic.

ELMO

When a good announcement comes out and the share price falls, this is a red rag to me. This was crazy and I love my idiotic seller. In this case, it has taken the market days to react but idiotic sellers have been selling into good news! And yesterday, it went into a trading halt to consider a drilling result. Why halt unless it is very, very bad result.... or very, very good result? There is also a discrepancy between ELM and ELMO. It costs 20c to exercise the option in Jan 2012. Because it is much cheaper to buy the options, I bought some on 13/1/11 at $1.01. In one week, it is up by >30%.

So on Monday 24/1/11, I will know which way it goes but judging by recent results, ELM must have hit the potash jackpot. I would be so flattered if the ASX thinks I have inside information! Unfortunately, I don't have that much spare cash so I only bought a small parcel to top up. Some fries are not worth investigating. Someone in Hotcopper wrote that at the last result, the grade is one of the best reported in the world yet there were sellers!

Good announcements

Sometimes when there is a good announcement, I buy the share while it is low. But how it performs thereafter, can bear no logic. ELMO went northwards when I topped up but GGG went nowhere when it announced another area with REE and uranium near the main deposit in Greenland.

Not quite an ASX announcement but Mr Andrew McCrea has spoken about SHH. He is the new guru in Proactive. Follow him closely! I did not buy any because the share price shot up like a He balloon after his assessment. Looks very good but I put a low price first and if it comes down, I will pick up some under my wife's portfolio. And if it continues to float upwards, I will look for another exciting share.

STB

Wow! I bought at around 32c in 2008 and a small entitlement in Dec 2009 at 20c. And today, it jumped by 69c to $4.15. All the rise have been in 2010. This is not a share that I dared to push hard and it has only performed hard because of potash in Eritrea. I have written about this in the past in my emails when it went up by much lesser.

It has risen 13-fold since 2008. And I have not sold a single share in it.

GGG

That is it.... no more cash to throw around for my super fund. The last bit was used up for GGG immediately after its announcement this PM. The share price is starting to creep up. This is a much higher price than when I first dabble in this stock.

EXR

Sometimes, I buy a share based on the director(s). EXR is one of them. Someone has spotted its chairman is the same as AUT which has had a spectacular rise for 5 years, especially in the last year.

Should I jump into the bandwagon? This stock is not for the faint hearted. Why? There is no recent announcements that can account for the rise. EXR was highlighted by ASX Guru and he has been great at picking "interesting" stocks. I am going for a ride; possibly brief.

ASX Guru's most recent posting

Today in the ASX Guru, I hold the latest 3 stocks that he reviewed :-)

SER and EDE have raced ahead but MAK has been a laggard. Nice to see it is starting to move. And yesterday, even TAS is starting to cotton on to EDE's meteoric rise.

Acknowledgement: SER and EDE were bought AFTER reading ASX Guru's notes.

KGD

A few months ago, I read in the AFR on how to select which IPO to participate in. Sadly, when a good stag profit can be made, you will not get any shares unless you are a client of the broker or the company is spun off from your existing stocks.

One stock stood out and it was KGD because it scored well on several counts. It floated at $1.80 but because it was a big IPO, the share price did not do major roller coaster rides. However, because it is below float price AND it continued to score good grades, shallowness and thickness in PNG, yesterday I bought some shares after a good announcement.

EDE

ASX Guru is only read by a small group of people. Yet, it has such an 'influential' effect on the stocks he reviewed. I read all his notes daily... for free. He enjoys giving out his thoughts and research.

The last stock I picked up was EDE. It jumped, then fell and now it really jumped. There was a beautiful write-up about its technology and what it was doing in India and the USA. So I bought into it. Someone with a deep pocket moved in today. Maybe, more than one person.

I am up >66% in such a short time.

And if you read my notes, TAS has benefited today, too. But parents never do as well as the children when it is the children who perform.

Gold

Price of gold fell last Friday so expect a mini-massacre of gold miners today. But this will only be temporary. Chinese New Year is coming and the Chinese are now loaded with money seeking a home. And then there are the Indians who just love gold.

Forget the Europeans, they are the reason for gold going up in the first place recently with their debt problems. Maldives are now populated by Asian tourists. Europeans can continue to have their expensive habits in... Europe.

GIR

I love cash in hand. There are 2 alternatives regarding AGO takeover of GIR. But then AGO has been rising in value since the offer was made. So at the moment, it is better value to take 1.5 AGO shares for each GIR, than the part cash alternative. You can sell the AGO shares yourself later.

My average buy price is 60c for each GIR shares so I am a happy lad and on another parcel, it was 74c. My last 2 top ups were during the Greek crisis in May and June 2010.

So goodbye GIR and now AGO which is an excellent company, too. It has been increasing by 50% p.a. over 5 years! I intend to keep my AGO shares. If AGO spins off some assets that it acquired via GIR, then I will still participate.

Watch where the GIR directors go.... and buy the shares of the company they form. These are good caring directors who help investors to make money, with honesty, patience and diligence.

Valuation

In 2007, the ASX 200 was much higher at just under 7000. Today it is under 5000. Some of my stocks have disappeared from the face of the earth, some are worth less than toilet paper and I have got rid of some which were still worth something after commission.

But today, I am finally worth more than in 2007. The worst was in June 2009 when my value was massacred. But luckily, I continued to invest through the trough. Some of my best performing stocks were bought during this time, as well as during the Greek crisis. The stocks purchased in Sept/Oct 2010 did very well, too.

PVM

http://www.proactiveinvestors.com.au/companies/news/13079/pmi-gold-corporation-ltd-hits-extensive-broad-gold-zones-including-218m-at-183gt-in-ghana-13079.html


Should I buy more West African miner? Definitely. But at the moment, my problem is I don't have the cash. Em... I might 'borrow' from my wife. Only problem with PVM is that the gold is very deep so expensive to mine. So maybe I won't buy. Some gold mines in South Africa are deeper still!

AZXOA

http://www.proactiveinvestors.com.au/companies/news/13045/auzex-resources-intersects-bonanza-near-surface-gold-at-bullabulling-13045.html

Why didn't anyone buy AZXOA when I highlighted it in Sept 2010? It is up 63% since I bought it. And look at all subsequent announcements! The area is littered with gold.

Why did I buy AZXOA? Because I read in EKM (now is GOR) investor presentation and noticed AZX is much cheaper on an EV basis. I love cheap gold and if sellers don't want it, I am happy to accumulate it! Gold in Africa, Americas, Australia or China (now the world's biggest producer) has the same value.

If you buy a house in Sept 2010 at $1 million at my instigation and sell it today for $1.63 million, you need to give me a round the world first class ticket. But you won't. Because if you wait for a bit longer, you will get $2 million and you can buy me 2 first class tickets so that I can take my lover along. And don't forget some expenses too.

But never invest based on a gasman's word..... Alamak!

MMR

Something odd is going on. The share price plunged when the first drilling revealed no hydrocarbon; lots of hot air. If you were brave and bought the shares at 24.5c on 7.1.2011, you would make nearly 80% today within 10 days.

Would I have bought? No. I would only rush in to buy if the news is GOOD plus the share price is down. MMR only owned 15% of the joint venture but after investing in the first drilling, it owns 40% as part of the agreement (drilling offshore is very, very expensive). Maybe it was a ploy to get nothing and then when the share price plunges, those in the know, would re-enter the market and sweep up as many cheap shares as possible.

There is a possibility that some investors have got inside information or are betting big on the next drilling result. The whole PEP11 has other prospective gas fields and only one drilling has been done. I have already gone for a roller coaster ride so I might as well continue with it. Yesterday, it climbed 22% and didn't get a speeding notice from the ASX. Em....

Good announcement but poor share price performance

For anyone who wants to buy gold mining shares, what can be better than ABU at the end of the day. My last top up was at 2.7c in mid Dec 2010. And today, with such a great announcement, the share price went down! These are the idiot sellers that I cherish.

Another one is ELM. It confirmed the potash deposits but maybe some investors are expected far too much. The options are better value so I topped it up today. I wish I can buy those idiotic sellers a cup of coffee!

GOR found more gold and the share price of GORO (the option) is stagnant. It wasn't thick but the gold was visible.

Tomorrow if ABU drops, I would buy at 2.8c. I find it crazy that the market is ignoring this company which kept churning out good drilling results. I wonder whether I am misreading and I am the idiotic buyer. However, based on the performance of my stocks, and my understanding of simple English, I like to think idiotic sellers abound with this stock. Any other taker?

GIR

For a "long" period I stopped buying GIR. I bought most of the shares in 2006 and 2008, all under a dollar. The cheapest was during GFC at 41c :-)

During the Greek crisis in May and June 2010 , GIR fell so I topped up twice, at $1.79 adnd $1.89. There was a long hiatus before I bought GIR again. Yet I never stopped harping on how good it is.

Lesson: Good companies can be bought any time!

The good news recently after the takeover bid by AGO is... AGO is going up! So the value of GIR is up, too. I was planning to take all shares of AGO, then pondered about the 50c + share option. Either way, I have done very well out of GIR.

Keep some money handy. Expect AGO to float off some GIR offshoots.

SLR

The tide has turned. Now you are penalized for staying back in Australia, in particular WA!

http://www.minesite.com/nc/minews/singlenews/article/silver-lake-pauses-for-breath-but-looks-set-to-roar-back-over-the-next-few-weeks/1.html

This is one company I invested in after a Proactive conference. But it hasn't performed like others. Still I love companies that no one wants while I build up cash. I am buying some this morning. GBZ was sold off recently so it is nice to have a little cash to top up my smaller parcels.

Indonesia

Along with the volcanic activity, there is mineral wealth in Indonesia. Strange that Japan should be so barren from a mineral point of view. But even the Japanese are starting to use robots to mine their seabeds.

My Indonesia stocks have done very well. What puzzles me is how come I have not invested more into that country. Today ARX announced before the market opens that it has found rich veins of gold. SIH has gone up a few folds while ROL kept finding more minerals. I am still waiting for HGO to commence drilling in Bird's Head in West Papua. Already landslips there are revealing mineral riches.

In Apr 2010 and Aug 2010, I put money into FNT. When I read the trenching grades, it has obviously stumbled into an El Dorado in PNG. Yet, no one seems interested. It has taken it a 'long' time to double in share price. The other company is GOA with mines in PNG and South America. There is worse investor apathy towards it.

I also topped up KRL twice recently. Sooner or later, someone is going to realise that there is a lot of coal in Kalimantan. Because I bought KRL pre-GFC, I am still at a loss but the gap has closed and once last month, became green.

For those interested in geography, Kalimantan is nearer to China and not flooded. But the coal quality is not as good as Aussie coking coal.

By the way, investor's apathy is my gold. It gives me time to accumulate money and to accumulate shares. So stay away from these stocks!

RB has an article each on Indonesia and PNG.

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/indonesia-may-take-investment-mantle-from-africa/story-e6frg8zx-1225984647994
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/mining-energy/gold-action-in-png/story-e6frg9ex-1225985567126

SER

On the day that I got rid of MQG, I had some cash in hand, enough to buy a big parcel of another stock or top-up many of my current stocks. I did both. I read about SER by ASX Guru and sank a big chunk of the proceed from MQG into SER. Very frequently, what I buy, falls first. And SER promptly obliged. But it didn't fall much and it didn't fall for long either.

Three months later, I am onto 140% gain. It pays to listen... and follow a gasman! When it hits 20c, I will sell some or all.

Since 6/10/2010, MQG has gone up by 3%. Wow!

GBZ

When it announced lousy grades and thickness, the market seems oblivious. When I sold, it didn't move much. But today, the investors must have noticed it... so it fell. If I wanted to, I could get it back about 5-10% cheaper but it is not worthy.

EDE

The guru has spoken but there was a long delay for his words of wisdom to filter to the general public. So when I bought, it fell first. And today, there is a spurt.

But look! TAS is still stagnant and it owns a big chunk of EDE.

Vanadium anyone?

http://www.mineweb.co.za/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page31?oid=118084&sn=Detail&pid=31

http://www.proactiveinvestors.com/companies/news/10395/the-vanadium-market-vanadium-redox-batteries-may-be-the-future-10395.html

Still no one interested in vanadium? But it is slow in coming. However, battery technology has been given a boost recently by both the China and Obama administrations. So far, lithium-vanadium battery appears to be the best.

The first time I read about vanadium, I proceeded to buy SPM; seems like no one wants the world-classs Australian deposit. That was about a month ago. So while the ASX has been falling, SPM is up >50%. And if no battery technology is better than Vanadium-Lithium cell at the moment for voltage, current (Electrical power = current x voltage) and long life with minimal deterioration, then SPM will be taken over. Story of Aussie companies. Will SPM go up further? Inshallah!

GBZ

It was not a good announcement but the share price didn't fall much. So I sold out. I expected better results. I have made > 120% so I have no regret selling. A profit is always a profit even if it is not bigger!

GMM

The board had to put up a statement to say the drilling result is not representative of what it is exploring! Still, the market didn't like it and today, I pick up another parcel at 11.5c, the trough for today. This one floated at 20c. We will see what happens when the real digging begins.

HAR

Queensland is under water. Beautiful one day, swimming pool another. You can even put your boat in the large pools. Just look out for snakes, crocs and marooned roos and bloated cows.

Without coal from Australia, where would China go to fire the furnaces? Next door is a country called Mongolia. I have put a buy for HAR. It has only just been floated but already it has doubled or tripled! Same history with HUN. This HAR is near railway lines!

EDE

After reading ASX Guru's article, I cannot believe this Aussie technology goes unnoticed. Actually I knew about it because TAS owns I think 20% of EDE.

You take a molecule of methane and take out the 2 H2 atoms to make hydrogen gas and use the carbon to make a single layer carbon tube. When you burn the hydrogen, you create only water. Believe it or not, no CO2 is produced either during the splitting of the methane molecule. Hydrogen gas is difficult to use on its own so it is mixed in Hythane. Apparrently there is a roll-out in India. Australian public is behind times.

http://asxguru.com.au/2011/01/eden-eenergy-ede-a-breakthrough-technology/

Don't expect Aussies to be enthusiastic about it. This is technology, not cricket, cricket, swimming nor football/soccer/rugby. But strangely, the Indians are keen on it... and the Yanks. So if you buy EDE this AM, you are getting it cheaper than me unless a deep-pocketed investor comes on the scene.

How can you resist when science fiction is non-fiction?

Recouping capital

Learn how to sell. This is one opportunity for those who bought into PIR. This is going great. Of course, it is still cheap and of course, it has great prospect. But share price does not go up everyday when there is no good news. Drilling results will come out in spasms. But PIR has gone up a lot for those who heeded my notes.

Cilla does not like me selling part of a stock due to accounting problems but that is because I have a huge parcel of shares. Anyway, for those who dislike losses, I suggest you get your capital back at least. And if you sell the lot, it is inshallah. Share price can drift both ways. If it falls, buy them back. If you now jumped off a speed boat, then look for another one.

Big down day

MMR plunging further. Gold down, Copper down so most of my stocks are down....

... but RRSO got a speeding notice and BDR found more gold. There is always something to cheer about. I don't likeit when market races ahead for no good reason. So, as I anticipated, the law of average will pull it down today.

Nothing to despair. We were given two free tickets to the dress rehearsal for Le Grand Cirque - Adrenaline. And it was infinitely better than the one we saw last year. And there are new restaurants along the Concourse. We had Japanese food as we didn't want to eat much. Too fat after KL. And CNY is coming up soon!

SER

I sold off MQG and had enough spare cash to buy big in SER. MQG is still in the doldrums with no big deals for mega profits. In the meantime, over the 3 month period, SER has just doubled in value for me this AM. This is an example of an excellent exchange of stocks. What I want to illustrate to my readers is that I am so disappointed with blue chips yet all the big ends of the CBD are only interested in the top 200. SER is beyond the top 200, possibly beyond the top 500! The Yanks have moved into its registry; we now have to wait for the non-Chinese Orientals and possibly Germans.

Some may say that the last 12 months could be the year for small companies but they may not perform as well as the blue chips in 'better' years. That is not my point. I am saying the big ends do not research into small companies so your choice is restricted relative to mine if you only invest with the city brokers who do not deal with small miners/companies. I can always switch my stocks back to blue chips when the time comes.

PEN

I was going to call it a day at my blog when I read something in Hotcopper that put a sparkle in my eyes. I held shares in PEN with blind faith for yonks and even topped up with entitlements and options. While the announcements have been decent, it has never been spectacular. But it is a plodder. Someone congratulated the long term investors of PEN because recent rises have now pushed this chronic loss of mine into the green zone! Even the options are valuable now! The board deserves a pat on the back for working so hard with this unappreciated company.

AVB

Look at my tipster note before the market opened today. AVB and DEG both got big speeding tickets at close. Someone with a deep pocket is reading my postings. Well, that is my assumption. Yet, people who know my blog usually do not. Alamak! You can make a living out of trading from my blogspot. Of course, it is also a big assumption based on 1 sparrow.

GMM

Incidentally, someone heard my ranting in the cyberspace. It went from 12c to 14.5. So what is the best share to buy tomorrow of the 3 stocks mentioned for 2011 by me? BSR. It went down today! The other two should have been bought this AM before the market opened at the opening price.

Whosoever read this note, acknowledge and please leave a remark. I think I only get 1 rare reader and the occasional straggler, a tornado. I am expecting zilch. I am my only reader!

DEG

The time that I put up my post is one of Yankee time. This one is written at 1717h on the 4/1/2011.

This AM at EST, I put up my notes on what I consider to be the hottest high risk investment DEG. And reminded my readers not to buy because your spouse would be very upset if you lose all the capital and if you cannot stomach loses if DEG drills and find NOTHING. I have many stocks like that but I have also many more stocks that found minerals or HAVE found minerals. But people only remember those that collapse!

I am glad to say that all my readers (I think) didn't buy DEG as in my posting on tipsters so I am not responsible for your stock performance but I also feel sorry for you if you didn't! DEG got a speeding ticket notice from the ASX this afternoon. The share price is flying!!!!!!! But I don't know what will happen tomorrow. Based on all the notes on DEG? It should fly higher until nothing is found in the ground. That area in Argentina is the current El Dorado but DEG's tenements may have nothing or a lot. Make you own judgment....

In early Dec 2010, I topped up at 4.9c. The best price this AM at opening was 5.5c. I always wonder why no one wants to heed a gasman's fiancial opinion but I am pleased with myself. Daoism says it is better to be ignored than be expected. But in Malay, it is Alamak!

AVB

All All Ords went up by less than 0.25%. Miserable by world standard.

With my stocks, one portfolio went up by 3% and another... went down by nearly 1%. The super portfolio went down because MMR re-listed after a trading halt. If you take out MMR, then the rest went up by higher than 3% so you can see how significant MMR is on my portfolio, mostly a reflection of how it has grown. I actually expected MMR to be decimated but it is still 50% over my original buy price.

Anyway, to highlight how good some of my stocks are today, look at AVB. I paid 2.1c for the ordinary share and today, it went up by 3.5c in one leap.

When stocks jump, especially over several sessions, it implies there is a takeover activity. I often wondered why Vale paid so much to gain access into its tenement when it should just take it over for LESS!

Quite a few stocks with >10% jump today in my portfolio. It is frightening when it does that... because tomorrow, it could be reversed.

The Peak

The peak of my investment was in Sept 2007. But while the All Ord has not recovered to that level yet, with my income and growth in my portfolio, I feel satisfied in getting my super fund up by nearly 50% (includes new contribution which has been curtailed by Uncle Wayne), my debt has dropped from $0.5 million to under $200,000 (including PAYE, Margin Lending, Credit Card debts) and my overall wealth reaching its previous high soon.

Most of this recovery is not from income but from market performance from my own portfolios, with nothing much to thank Citibank nor Goldman Sachs. Here we are thinking these people know how to make money for us if we pay them. Looks like they are the only people making money during and after GFC and they are already rewarding themselves with big bonuses. When the markets are up, they pat themselves on their backs and when the markets are down, you are really on your own.

My biggest problem at the moment is knowing when to exit the high flyers in my portfolios. This is where it is misty for everyone, with conjectures from many.

PIR PIROA

When I read how cheap the EV is for PIR, I wanted more shares than I could afford so I bought the options instead.

You take a risk with explorers when they are prospecting; bigger if in an undeveloped country. But if they have already discovered wealth in the ground then there is no further risk with exploration. If there is a higher share price, then the risk associated with the chance of further discovery is factored in. With PIROA, none of these! Gold discovered, and price kept falling and falling. So EV becomes el cheapo for hardly any risk. This is where people should read TT's note if as they say "They don't have the time to mind their investments". A gasman is doing the foot work for you! It takes less time to read my notes than watching sports.

Em.... whatever the excuse if you don't want easy money.

1035%

I bought STB at 31.5c in June 2008. Only fools would buy shares during an increasing crisis. And then I topped up with an entitlement when the share price crumbled further to recover to 20c in Dec 2009. My wife must think I am a high roller gambler at the casino. But I have to say that I am a calculated gambler. I don't intend to go gambling to lose based on my simple arithmetic.

Since then I have not topped up because I was despondent to watch the price sank almost to oblivion at 4c at the height of GFC. In Dec 2009, I took up the entitlement thinking what a sucker I am.

Today, it has increased by 1035% with more and more potash uncovered in Eritrea and soon I expect more nickel to be discovered in WA. My only retrospective regret... like most people, is not buying more when I normally buy when no one wanted it at 4-6c during the GFC. $3.10 this AM after announcing another good potash hit when it came out of a trading halt.

Eritrea is poorer than a church mouse so the government is likely to want early development to tap into its mineral wealth. It has been fighting with Ethiopians and supporting one side of the civil war in Somalia. No money but they are good fighters!

RRSO

The buy and sell price discrepancy is big because this is not a liquid stock. But this AM, it went from 6.5c to 7.3c, over 12% leap. Perhaps there has been inside information because it wasn't a tiny trade. There has been no recent news. Share price might fall even now!

This has gone up by >50% since late Nov 2010. I topped up in mid Dec 2010 when the share price fell. There is no takers among my readers for RRSO because I am the only chicken, foolish enough to part with my money into a frightfully brave stock, mining at the Horn of Africa. The geologists and engineers are the heroes.

Somalia can still be a money spinner in spite of a government lacking control and pirates terrorizing ships around that region. What a wonderful world!

ASX has gone berserk

One sparrow appeared on the 3/1/2011 in Wall Street and all the stock markets are flying. The ASX has gone mad. Actually not the All Ords but my stocks. I am fearful, not delighted, when values go up like that. If a good news is announced, then you can sit back and relax that you have chosen that stock well. But just flying high also means the sparrow could drop from the sky suddenly, unexplainable why it flew so high and why it plunged so fast.

I expect there may be takeover for LYC, SER, PGM and VOR. PGM is a great stock to trade. It has been known to be very volatile, moving up and down without any news. So it may have risen due to traders manipulating the price.

While I was writing this note, I noticed a sudden plunge in my super fund portfolio. Good reason! MMR is back trading. Relatively, the decimation has not been as bad but the price will fall further. I expected no value at all! As I usually discount MMR's value in my portfolio because it has only hype in value (until hydrocarbon is found), I have done well!

Tipsters in The Australian

When fund managers were asked to tip stocks for the year 2010, many chose BHP, RIO and the four banks for safety. You are AVERAGE and won't look too bad nor too good.

And the winner was the one who tipped Brockman Resources in his portfolio

What would I have tipped for 2010? Definitely GIR, one West African, GTE, CDU, a PNG stock, a South American stock, a Indonesia stock and a potash stock AFTER BHP made its move. In the end CDU wasn't quite a disaster.

The only thing I am sure about what I would have tipped is that it won't include any top 200 (although GIR and CDU eventually tipped into it). Nor for 2011.

Because GMM is crumbling for no good reasons, this is my tip for the year. And then there is BSR, again crumbling for no good reasons. For the biggest flutter, you would go for DEG. All these stocks are losses for me, with DEG the oldest resource history for small miners in my portfolios and also the biggest loss. With DEG going into Argentina, if it hits gold, then it will be a company maker... and taken over. I need to recoup my losses and I need to average down my buy price. Certainly do not touch DEG if your partner or yourself cannot hack the extremely high risk. With DEG, your capital could vanish but it could be an AND, too.

No more news for AVB so it has stabilized at 12-14c range. If further exploration reveals more goodies at high grade, then this one will be exploding. But again, if there is only mediocre grades and thin veneers, then kiss it goodbye! Inshallah!

Last advice is don't listen to me! I don't want to listen to losses or get into trouble with your spouse, and I have nothing to gain from your profits! Best to buy The Australian and read RB yourself but he was not included in the list of tipsters.

Nothing

Where do we go from here?

When lots and lots of IPOs come out, it is a warning bell. There must be plenty of money around with unrealistic optimism, like in 2007 according to RB. One IPO with Mongolian coal has gone from 20c to over 50c in a brief period. Yet today, a famous ex-broker from Patersons has suggested GMM. This has fallen in price.

There has been nothing on the market today. But if you look, you will see that Hang Seng was opened and DAX is trading, and later tonight, Wall Street will open. This shows you how hard working the people in HK and Germany are.

I had time today to sort out the paper work. There are lots. I have heaps of companies in my super fund portfolio but with about a quarter of them trading at over 100% over varying periods, I think my wife who does the account would not be screaming at me. Bring that down to 23 because MMR is going to plunge.

VOR

In the The Australian newspaper, under the Mining and Energy tab, there is a listing of the top gainers and losers for that day. Some stocks should not be included because at under 1c, a small change (minimum 0.1c movement) makes a big variations. You often see EXM and JRV on the list.

So I ended the year with VOR at the top of that list. When you look at the market performance, most investors have been hard done by. Those overpaid financial leeches in comfortable offices with a view of the harbour are probably the only ones doing well. They get paid handsomely come what may with bonuses to buy Ferraris and yachts. I am lucky that other than for SPP and Entitlements, I have hardly invested in the top 200. In fact, I have sold out of QBE, NAB, WOW and MQG. And a chunk of ORI. The boards of directors who run these companies have big fat pay cheques. And worse still, are highly regarded businessmen.

Yet this year, it is those geologists who are exploring in exotic and sometimes dangerous places with terrible working conditions who are making me money. And they get less pay than those sitting comfortably in offices in Australia. And those financial suckers are the people my readers are rewarding for their meagre performances.

If VOR comes out with good drilling results, then this will be another 10 bagger. It is high risk but what is high risk when it has already revealed some good results. I harped about Mongolia when this was under 2.3c, now over 5c within 4 months. Em... pay leeches or listen to gasman?

Want a little flutter? Try DEG... extremely high risk with nearology as its key feature in Argentina. Don't buy if you (or spouse!) cannot stomach the risk of big losses. I can tell my wife handles any losses badly (that is why she does not gamble).... but I have more gains now!

PCL

I have no idea what is its timetable, ie when the drilling is going to be done. But for those who have bought this on the cheap, be very, very aware of what is happening to MMR. When it re-lists, it is going to be murdered because of so much hype and the first drilling showed up no hydrocarbon.

So, it is wise to at least re-coup your capital with PCL. Sell some to get your capital back or the lot to get a profit. And if you still really like this company's prospect, hope that the share price will fall and buy them back. And then enjoy the ride again and again.

For so many cowards who cannot handle losses, I strongly recommend selling while you are so far ahead. Share price often fall unless the company announces a good find. Greed by hoping for a much bigger profit is not a good investment strategy. Success with oil and gas exploration is not great even when surrounded by huge oil and gas fields. Look at MEO.

The best low risk investments are those where the deposit/mineral/oil/gas has already been discovered and the market just doesn't want the stocks. Good examples? But you could be too late now: BSR, SBL, SER, RRS, RMR, FNT, GOA, etc, etc. Investing is so easy but only if you are not so blind when you have vision. And some of my colleagues are deaf with no hearing loss!

Actually it is great; like my father who never heeded my medical advice. I am then not responsible for anything. After all, I am not a paid advisor. And I get nothing when there is any gain. My wife who cares for me is always worried I might be sued. And my readers' wives are wary about getting tips from a half-baked untrained tipster and only see the losses. So read and make your own decision. But it is best if you don't! This is only my financial diary and very few people knows about it.

What I tell you with absolute certainty is after staying in KL for 9 nights and doing nothing but help look after my ailing mother and eating, is that the best Malaysian food is in Club Mulgoa by a huge lead. Being a restaurateur is the last thing on my mind.... but our own food is so much tastier! My wife is THE best Malaysian cook. And I have yet to taste better satay than that which is rarely served in Club Mulgoa.

Passive investment

A very successful medical colleague of mine was lamenting how our colleagues are totally uninterested in their investments. They are happy with the meagre returns from super funds where the managers take a big chunk off the profit. This apathy costs them a lot of money but there is also total indifference to this apathy!

I looked at my stocks and what I bought recently. If I had been passive, I would have lost a lot. A lot relatively to what I have made. Yet after digesting ASX data, combing through websites and churning out the buys, I have no takers. Perhaps it is the mistrust of my non-financial background. Yet looking at how my GSJBWere and MSSB portfolios following the GFC, the returns have been so bad that I might have earned more changing them into bonds during the GFC.

For the time I have spent on managing my stocks, I have learnt a lot on how to read announcements/reports and how to assess tipsters. This knowledge is very valuable. And it has been extremely rewarding. Yes, I now earn more from the ASX than anaesthesia, in spite of the market falling by a few percentage over the last 12 months. I am not a day trader and I rarely sell. And sales are sometimes enforced to make cash for SPP at cheaper buy price.