DEG

In 2004, I learnt about this company. This is my first foray into the resource sector involving unknown small explorers. Each time it finds something, the share price went down. I have never understood this. So with each top up, I am poorer.

This company stands out as my biggest loss. The geologist involved was named Explorer of the Year! The company today is a different animal.

Lately, it decided to make a move into Argentina. Now, read my lips. Argentina is going to be the new "West Africa", along with Mongolia. I have already made my first major profit with AND which was taken over by a Canadian company. I didn't want Canadian stocks as it is difficult to trade as an Australian in Australia so I sold it on the market when the price stabilized.

I topped up my DEG in early Dec 2010 with a lot of courage. As often is the case, it fell first. But as the slogan that Argentina is the current flavour for miners, DEG is starting to run. This recent purchase has lowered my average buy price significantly. And since it started to move up, the loss is slowly coming down.

Would I recommend DEG? It is in the right region of Argentina, near successful discoveries, including AND's Cerro Negro. There is not just gold; there is also the new "gold", i.e. silver.

My portfolio and carry-over from MSSB

The blue chip portfolio from my days with MSSB (the old Citibank) has been stagnant, consisting mostly of banks and BHP, RIO, GMI, WES, STO and WOR. When the opportunity arises to shed them, I will. So far, these stocks are not raising cash except perhaps STO.

But the portfolios with small miners that I manage, have charged ahead. If there is a downturn, I could be badly hit but the price of gold will move up and more than 200 nuclear energy generators are planned so uranium stocks, especially after 2013, will continue to advance. I sold ORI yesterday to make way for SLX share purchase plan. And then there are REE, potash, phosphate, copper, O&G, coal that many countries especially China, Japan, Korean and India need. I feel comfortable.

My MMR will hit me hard when it re-lists on the ASX but as it is virtually free, I have no regrets taking the risk. I have taken risks with so many explorers and I have been amply rewarded. These Aussies who go to dangerous places earn my respect and admiration infinitely more than sportsmen. Yet they get no recognition by the society. WTF! The geologists' success benefits investors and eventually, the mineral income will top up the ATO's coffer. Sporting success mostly benefits financially the sportsmen themselves; I don't need Australia's sporting prowess. And the reporters and commentators also benefit and it also allows Shane Warne to hop into bed with Liz and other pommy mothers. Good for him.

Equity vs Bank deposits

The simple rule that risk is proportional to returns/loss is well known. Short term, it does not mean much but as time goes on, the rule becomes more applicable.

2010 is a year when DH did badly. If people starts to ignore him in 2011, they would be fools. If TT did well in 2010, people would be fools too if they think I am better than DH. I get a huge number of leads from RB as well as from Hotcopper, Proactive, Minesite, Mineweb, Eureka Report and ASX Guru and of course the press. But to compete with the big ends of the city, I keep tab of ASX announcements. These are THE most important facts in the financial world, delivered legally at equal pace to the public and the financial institutions. While the big guns have powerful software for trading, it is analysis of announcements that is the most crucial.

This year, the stock market did poorly. This year, it is virtually dead. But that is only if you invested mostly in the top 20. My own portfolios are mostly made up of those below the top 200. Of course some have encroached into the top 200 but I consider mostly their origins when I bought them. Hence, I have done very well.... but unlike DH, I don't have any ardent followers. And I don't collect fees either. Another 2 years of successful investment, then maybe I should start to charge! No, not charging for the information I provide but charging so that the readers are more inclined to follow rather than glance.

ASX Guru

When the ASX Guru writes about your stocks, it is usually good for you. The latest ones are SER and VOR. Nice....

SER with the recent Nobel Prize for graphite research, China controlling world supply (Japs, Yanks, Germans and Koreans need reliable alternative source), Yankees moving into its registry and it is described as "world class'. This is one stock I bought big because I sold shares in MQG.

VOR I bought twice when the price was low. And now it is racing away. And WILL be racing away.

Again, I bet no one bought SER or VOR! Alamak!

Mongolian stocks

Any IPO stocks that mention Mongolia are hot items. Yet, why are those already listed ignored? GMM has been languishing but for a silly reason. And today, suddenly VOR had a spurt racing from 3.9c to 5.4c at close. But why?

If I knew the answer, I would be a very, very wealthy man with ill-gotten wealth! That is, if I knew why but the market doesn't.

HUN is doing nicely, a gradual climb. AKM had its spurt. It would be nice to catch more Mongolian stocks. I have put a buy at low for GMM; just waiting for someone to sell cheaply...

Super contribution

Happy this morning. Cilla gave me a top-up to my super fund. So I am on the prowl, looking for idiots selling on the cheap.

In the last week, I have identified about 10 stocks to pick up. My price must be too low; every one of those companies has bolted. So my research must be good and I am too mean a buyer! But why pay a high price when there are so many people getting rid of their shares cheaply. Patience is a good investment characteristic :-)

And what have I identify? Silver companies, South American explorers and poorly valued companies. And very risk companies. They have bolted so I will just have to sit and wait for them to return to earth.... and look for other el cheapos.

SPM

No one interested in vanadium? Great write-up recently about vanadium's use in battery. SPM has a large undeveloped "world class" vanadium deposit. I put a low bid for it. Because it was at the trough, I didn't get all the shares I wanted. But it was a decent parcel. Today it is up 47% after just over 2 weeks.

Nice to gloat at the end of the year! But never follow a gasman blindly.... do your own research.

The BHPs and RIOs of the world would not rise like that unless a big deposit is discovered. SPM has ALREADY discovered its vanadium deposit; just under-valued and ignored or not visible by the funds with big money.

LRF and cynical remarks

Remember once upon a time when I suggested you buy a house at $640,000 when all the same houses in the neighbourhood are worth $960,000? That was in Jan 2010. But the bad news is, if you choose to sell, no one wants to buy it off you for other than $640,000. All your neighbours suffer from the same problem. Confucius says patience is a virtue. TT says cheap valuation is done by idiotic sellers. This AM, there are buyers for $990,00 but the houses in the same area is worth even more, possibly $1.2 or $1.3 million or more.

The rise makes my LRF parcels one of the biggest stocks at GSJBWere. And if another bidder comes along for RIV (LRF is a huge investor in it), then I can expect those houses to rise even further, referring to the actual buying price. Of course, the underlying value would go up even higher.

I am betting that no one bought LRF amongst my readers and I thank you for that! Less buyers means cheaper buying price for moi :-)

Seek anaesthetist's advice for anaesthesia... not the stock market! By the way, it is not flooding in Mozambique.

One sparrow

One sparrow may not herald the onset of spring. And while I have had a few sparrows, readers are right to ponder whether spring is here. The market has been mostly down a little each day or up a little. But having chosen the right stocks for the current period, I have been collecting alphas... courtesy of trading halt in MMR!

But because MMR is nearly capital-free other than the last $4500, I have not considered its value when I work out my alphas because it skews my performance (up or down). When its trading halt is lifted, I expect a 75% plunge. That is the nature of investing in explorers. You take a 'calculated risk' and you live with it and move on.

The less people buying the stocks I am interested in... the better for me. I don't think big institutions are at all interested in my subjects. Too piddly and not worthy of their time. But every now and then, a Ken Talbot appears and then the big boys start to pile in. Not everything Ken Talbot went into did well but it was nice to be ahead of his big money.

Never take investment advice from an anaesthetist. Follow any Ken Talbot look-alike. I prefer solid investors and their followers to be BEHIND me :-)

GORO and RRSO

When you are dealing with options, the buy and sell discrepancy could be massive. The fact that GORO has a big rise this AM has nothing to do with how the company is performing (no announcement today) but due to the fact that someone is keen to lay his/her hand on the stock.

The chance of this company doing well should be good because it has located a new gold belt in WA. If it can prove up its deposit, then the options will fly. There is an expectancy of that so to some extent, that has been factored into the price. You need good drilling results! Not just hype.

The same with RRSO this AM. Could even be the same investor! This one is exploring in northern Somalia. The geologist should be awarded an AO for outstanding bravery and contribution to Aussie and Third World economies by risking his/her life.

FNT

My favourite announcement from a company is when it gets a speeding ticket from the ASX. There are 2 types of speeding ticket. One is for too low a speed. I am referring to the too-fast ticket.

What is puzzling is why it takes so bloody long for investors to cotton on the fact that FNT has uncovered new anomalies! FNT was already good without that announcement.

SBL

When it is so cheap and it has been dishing out good announcements, why does the share price hovers around its low? I topped up at 2c during the recent entitlement in Oct, and I bought more at 2.2c in Sept this year. And on 14/12/10, another purchase at 2.5c.

While the price is low and no one wants it, TT is happy to accumulate.

Bet no one took an interest in this company. You have my sympathy. Today, it is 3.2c so that is >50% within 2 months. Some people prefer to work hard to earn their money and grumble and grumble about the hard work and lack of recognition. The stockmarket allows me to earn more without any recognition. What is the point of grumbling when you are THE only person involved?

Want to buy a West African? Still want to listen to me? Go for BSR; nobody wants it and many idiots (but not me!) are selling.

ORMO and other REE companies

Alamak! This is Malay for Mamma Mia!

The well-known REE companies, GBE, GGG, ARU, NTU and LYC have all been sprinting, including today. But WTF is happening with ORMO and RMR? WTF means TT is buying or attempting to buy! Picked up some ORMO and it went lower. And I have put a low buy for RMR.

Just when I want to buy HEG, it has climbed again. Why investors let share price drift so low, I can never understand.

MMR is suspended so the value of my CommSec portfolio has plunged by a huge amount. But that aside, I have a 1.5% rise against a market rise of 0.3%. Gold and REEs are making me richer but oil and gas exploration is not! Anyway, the MMR shares are virtually 'free' except for the last 2 small parcels, bought recently.

UNX

When the GFC hit, many of my stocks turned red. Years of investment, years of work, years of research, all going down the drain. When the GFC subsided, you can see green bands re-appearing as losses became profits again. Slow, then an avalanche. So today, courtesy of one recent top-up, I am glad to say UNX has turned green. Not Bob Brown green but CommSec green.

When the share price of a stock takes a drubbing, investors often stay on the sidelines even if they know the company is great. The best thing I did during and after GFC was to plunder the market for this kind of stocks. I adore idiotic selling... and I am sure I have been an idiot too in someone's else eyes!

SER

Presumably, like usual, no one went for a ride with me on top of SER. There are not too many "world class" graphite deposits in the world... outside China. The Yanks, Japs, Koreans and Germans are sooner or later going to come knocking on SER's doors. What am I talking? The Yanks are already through the doors! Still, investors are slow at piling in. The share price went nowhere when I first bought but you can see the trend now :-)

But never trust an anaesthetist financial diarist! What would he know about stocks!

RMR RRS

Here is another REE company in Greenland but has fallen in price. Yes, fallen. RMR is still a long way from producing anything. But you would think the Japs or Yanks would just buy it up.

RRS is prospecting in one of the world's most dangerous places. It has now rewarded me with a 16% rise in around a month. Nice and you have to salute those Aussies at the frontier territory. Not only the land is dangerous, the waters surrounding Somalia is THE most dangerous.

ORMO

http://imagesignal.comsec.com.au/asxdata/20101027/pdf/01113107.pdf

I must be reading very superficially or with ignorance. Yesterday, all well-known REE miners/explorers bolted because China is playing bad boy with her REE again. GGG went up by >12%. But ORMO went down. Why is the market pricing one lot up and another down? Inshallah!

The best thing about ORM's prospective REE deposit is heavy REE. The Japs, Koreans, Germans and USA will be scouring around the globe for more reliable supply.

Note that GBE went up too but it has been falling. Why? Again, I must be superficial or ignorant.

MMR

No hydrocarbon so MMR is going to be punished severely tomorrow. But this is only the first drilling. There is gas as there is a natural oil slick. But where is it coming from?

KRL

This company has so much coal yet no one wants it. Em.... until the Indonesians were. Why does it always take an investor with a deep pocket to come along before good value is noticed? I am very glad about it. It allows me to position myself first!

ORMO and other REE companies

China has cut export quota of its REE so today, LYC leapt up in price. But... ORMO fell. I cannot resist! Finding an REE deposit is the easy bit, finding the right REE is the harder bit and actually mining is harder still and then finding a customer and producing to specifications is the near impossible bit. Why do you think LYC is so expensive?

Eventually, the market will also recognize GBE. Strange that there are so many people with vision but they just cannot see. And they cannot see what we have locally. I used to own ARU but it has flown beyond my grasp.

I topped up NTU recently due to entitlement. Because it is a uranium and REE explorer, it has been turning greener in CommSec! Today while the overall ASX is down, I am up there in positive territory. Mostly because of gold and REE stocks. Good to be ahead of the general population.

KRL

I bought when it floated. But that parcel generated a big loss for me as it was purchased prior to GFC. Luckily during the Greek financial crisis, I topped up. But it went lower. So I topped up again. Faith or stupidity?

Today an Indonesian company virtually taken it over by injecting money into it. So, the share price has jumped. I am still a little underwater but able to breathe. Had I not topped up, with confidence, I would have been swimming deep under the water. With so much coal in Kalimantan, I was puzzled why KRL share price remained so low. When the market has digested the facts, I expect KRL share price to go up a bit more.

SBL... and BSR

RB has spoken or rather his readers have spoken about SBL. I am perplexed too. If anyone wants to buy West African, SBL... and BSR are my top of the pops. BSR is even more perplexing. It has gone down while SBL is steady. Yet other West African stocks are flying including those just floated.

In RB's article, I am bragging that my first AND and GRY were bought at a lower price. My NTU was "free" as I have recouped my capital cost (bought at 47c and sold enough at $1.47) and I topped up with all subsequent entitlements. It pays to listen to RB. And it is rewarding to follow my brain waves.

What a pity that I don't have much cash left now. There are more SPPs and entitlements coming up. I might have to sell to realise the cash.

Self-analysis

I looked back at my own postings in Sept and Oct 2010 today. The All Ords has moved from about a low of 4600 to a high of 4900. But I analysed what I have bought and I find it hard to believe no one followed my trading.

Here are my buys EKMO (now GORO), VOR, AVB, ALY, HUN, GMM, VOR AKM, AUQ, SBL, MLX, PIROA, CNLO, HEG, CTP, CGX, MNC, TRF, TRH, ABU, SER, LRF, CRC, AVA, AZX, BDR, RIA, MEO...

I feel sorry for Cilla who has to do the accounts. But she will be delighted with the performance.

It is good to look at the falls. GMM announced a terrible drill result that has no bearing on where their potash is, MEO high pressured zone turned out to be not hydrocarbon (it claimed only 30% success anyway), HEG is incomprehensible, CNLO is incomprehensible and CTP's 90m column of gas or oil did not flow any oil and placement was announced after I topped up (bastards!). When investing in explorers, there is risk of failure to find. So I am NEVER despondent when a failure is announced. If you cannot stomach that fact, do not follow me. And do not read my postings. And certainly don't blame me. Because if there is success, I don't profit from your gains.

Now, these are stocks to buy! HEG and CNLO. Stocks that fall for no good results are the best for topping up. Idiots are selling. And I cannot collect enough of these fools. Maybe they know something that I don't but it would be illegal information.

The profit making ones? I never expect doublings but there are quite a few in there. I like slow rises like my GIR over the years. It sure puzzles me why there is not a bigger following! The only thing I learn from these stocks is to heed the tipster or the websites/newspaper where I gather the information. My favourites are RB, DH (not so good this year but he is human), ASX Guru, Minesite, Mineweb, Proactive, AMEC, and selective Hotcopper posters. You can only read that many. And that is many!

Today I have put a low buy for BKP at under 1c. This stock is astronomically high risk. It is like lotto but the return is astronomically better. Expect to lose the lot if nothing materializes but expect a holiday in Tahiti for my lover if it does. And I like my chances.

UNX

It is always very, very nice to be 'complimented' by ASX Guru. I take it as a compliment anyway

He highlighted a buy in early Dec 2010 but I topped up in mid November 2010. The price of uranium was going up and UNX was getting good hits in Malawi; 1+1=many. I first bought UNX a long time ago in early 2007 so since GFC, it has been a huge loss. Well, the recent top up has doubled in value in under 2 months. My loss has been parred back a lot and I am nearly into the green zone.

Why this posting on UNX? Because it is the lastest posting in ASX Guru. Always be ahead of him because he only highlights RETROSPECTIVELY after a massive jump or a fall but he is still worth following because he explains why. I didn't know my recent UNX has done that well :-) until I read his website.

It takes BHP and RIO a long time to double in value. So I am sticking to buying well-chosen small acorns. I like oak trees that grow fast without having to tend to them.

Luck or reward?

While I am in KL with nothing much to do other than assisting with nursing my mother, I have time to assess my recent buys.

Am I lucky? I bought TRH for its potash in USA but suddenly it started to jump because it has gone into Columbian coal. Luck!

And then I put a low of SPM because of its world-class vanadium deposit in WA. I got the trough! But because it is the trough, I did not get all the shares. Still I won't complain as it has gone up >20% in such a short time.

I bought TPT recently because of its O&G off Morocco. It went down and down and then suddenly, it went up. Nothing yet but it went up... and so I am onto profit!

I topped up UNX recently because it is uncovering more uranium in Malawi. If I didn't, I would be nursing a much bigger loss. Uranium is the new gold...

MPO has gone up from $1.025 to $1.09 in a few days.

IMA has gone from a top up price of 41c to 49c.

But WGR has gone down a little.

There are too many to list but they sure beat the banks and blue chip miners! And better income than doing anaesthetic. Pity it is not as satisfying but I love the ease!

Silver

Lots have been written recently about silver being undervalued relative to Au. So I did a bit of research, using Hotcopper and RB. There is ARD and AYN. Silver Mines has gone to around its peak before GFC so I am staying clear.

It is interesting that while the rest of the world used gold, China was using silver from Ming dynasty till 1935!

ABV

How does it work? There is no announcement yesterday or today. Yesterday, it went up by .4c to 3.4c and today, down 0.4c to 3c. And it isn't just a few shares traded. Some people must be stupid losers or someone is manipulating the market. I am there for the longer haul so I just sit and wait with amusement.

In time to come, I will sell out of this engineering company because it has only one product.

MMRO

A sudden plunge in MMR and MMRO this arvo. The latest news is just a report of drilling going on. They have not reached the gas destination yet. So this is either inside information that there is nothing in the seabed, ie no hydrocarbon or some investors panicking and taking profit. I am a cool 'risk taker'. Today, because of the plunge, I suddenly picked up more MMRO, a small parcel at a low price. So wish me luck but I don't need it. Based on seismic studies, I have a good chance of success but it is never absolute until the drilling hits gas. Next Wednesday, I will know! I expect there will be a trading halt ahead of the announcement. My huge investment (from near zero cost other than for the last 2 small parcels) will make me a lot or I could lose the lot!

Xmas NY period

At this time of the year, the market is often neglected. I didn't get all the shares I wanted with KGL's SPP so when the refund came, it gives me a few spare grands to play with. I am watching... even while I am in KL but the market will be closed for a few days so I am out enjoying myself in other ways. Plenty of eating. I have already pre-ordered the best Hokkien mee in the world.

How to read financial reports

http://www.minesite.com/nc/minews/singlenews/article/a-merry-christmas-allied-to-investment-ideas-for-2011/1.html

When I read a tipster's recommendation, you want to know why a particular stock is chosen. But this suggestion is short term; it is easy to miss the boat. If the tipster is famous with a big following, the tip itself will move the share price.

What I like best is articles like the above. It allows you to plan and select a stock yourself. It deliberately didn't want to discuss gold because it is so obvious. But look at the future trend for silver, an undervalued metal. And look at uranium, with Russian (conned) contract expiring in 2013 and so many new nuclear plants planned, there will be shortage of uranium. Someone will take over PDN; Chinese I think.

A lot of mining plants take a long time to develop and they are very expensive to built and very difficult to plan due to political, geographical and infrastructure considerations.

This year, I bought CGG because of its good looking female CEO (she must be bloody good) working in Saudi Arabia, its expanding copper/gold mine there and I have made profit out of it in the past so when the share price fell with all the good news, I bought it back. Now it has been taken over by EQN and this will be taken over by another bigger company because it is cheaper to take over a producer than become a producer yourself. Read the article and see if my interpretation is right!

And again, you have my sympathy for your apathy if you didn't buy any GIR if you had spent time reading my emails and Club Mulgoa postings. I have read so many good articles about GIR in the past. So wonderful that I will buy anything when its current board of directors (except one) set up a new company after they are out of their GIR duties.

AQD

People lose interest in a very short while. AQD went up recently when it acquired tenements in Burkina Faso and gave a good announcement. From there, it has been falling. So when I can, I will top it up. I love companies that fall for no reason other than idiots selling...

MPO

This morning, after reading the article about MPO "500% rise in asset worth and share price falling over 24 months", I just had to buy more. But I have hardly any cash to splurge due to so many SPP/Rights issues. So I went begging with a bowl in my hand to my wife.

Luckily, she is better at mathematics than me :-)

By evening, my small top up parcel has increased in value from $1.025 to $1.075. Some people take a long time to understand simple arithmetic; I jumped in before the market even opened at 0959h and put in a bid to get the shares.

TRH

It went to Columbia to buy coal, not coca a few days ago. I bought it for its potash in the USA. And guess what? Today, it jumped >40%. This is one of my few potash laggards. Most potash stocks have jumped over the moon except this one and GMM. So now, there is only one left behind. How long will GMM remains behind? Only He knows. But if I was going to top up, it will be GMM.

ELM in Congo is going great!

MPO

This morning.... this is the share I am plunging into if the share price remains low

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/rebel-investors-fire-up-gas-energy-junior-molopo-with-bid-for-two-new-directors/story-e6frg8zx-1225975183044

I have shares in MPO bought a long time ago so I am on 3x what I paid for. But because the share price has been languishing and a group of good businessmen are agitating to get rid of an ineffectual chairmen, I expect the share price to jump after the shareholder revolt.... if successful.

This is THE line that caught my attention "Despite the fall in the share price, the company has recorded 500 per cent asset value growth in the past two years."
This is what I call "simple arithmetic" that even a primary school kid can understand.

- Show quoted text -

MEP

This is a company famous for discovering some big copper mines. It does not brag but it does announce bad news as it comes! When it fell recently, I topped up twice at 29c and 27c and suggest people accumulate shares in it.

Why did it go up by more than 10% today? No idea! But it means less opportunity to buy more. A good stock is always worth buying when idiots are selling!

MMR

In a few days time, I will know whether MMR will be my first twenty bagger or more. But it could also go to the dogs if no hydrocarbon is found. It has a few sites to drill but the market does not tolerate hype which amounts to hot air only at the first drill. I am taking the gamble. So confident that a fortnight ago, I topped up another small parcel when MMR fell rapidly from its peak to 78c. It went down further!

I assume no reader of my blog had been brave to buy MMR. So next week, you will either hear me bragging or cest la vie or inshallah! If gas is found, I am throwing a party! My MMR is capital neutral because I have sold shares to pay for the cost... except for the recent $2000 plus top up. I have a lot of MMR shares bought when no one wanted them!

Today, it produced another announcement; another hype from another 'independent' assessor. It is being compared with Gorgon and a Norwegian gas field! Em......

GIR

I have mentioned this before: your brain needs a colonoscopy if you have not bought any GIR since I started harping on it. Why? Your brain has no grey matter; only brown matter. That is how bluntly I would put it to my readers who had not bought any GIR. Why waste your time reading my notes? Go and read or watch something less financially beneficial... like sports!

Today GIR is taken over by Atlas. Atlas will in future be taken over by a bigger company. Iron ore is expected to continue trading well. India is restricting its export. China's iron ore is low quality. The share price of GIR leapt by >30% with the announcement. The board has recommended that shareholders take up the offer.

I have 2 parcels of GIR, one is up 5.5x and the other 6.5x. I am intending to take up Atlas shares as it is a promising Fe ore company. LRF owns a lot of Atlas and the share price of both have been on an upward trend.

SMD

This company didn't turn me on when it presented at Proactive Forum recently. But I notice the share price has been coming down. So I was right about not buying. However, today, there is a write up in Eureka Report and because of its tenements in Cloncurry/Mt Isa area, it is worth thinking about it again!

ASX Guru's most recent posting

Make that 4 out of his last 4 stocks reviewed!

I got AZH when it was spun off from HRR. How many shares? Probably not enough to buy a roll of toilet paper. Most shares were given to cronies of the stockbroker. My cheques were returned intact when I wanted to buy more than the in specie numbers given to us when it floated. And then when there was a new share offer, again nothing for us.

Because it costs a lot for company to keep shareholders with very tiny holdings, it offered to buy out those shares (at below what David Tweed would have offered!!!). I refused to sell any to punish the management for not looking after the small shareholders. When the share price fell before placement and new offer price, I bought a lot more share to thump my nose at those people. That has gone up >5x and the other lot bought just recently is up 70%. So the ASX Guru has just caught up with me!

BSR

I have no idea why it went so low. I have been topping up and of course, I didn't know a placement and rights issue was on its way.

For those who missed out on West Africa, this has got to be the stock to buy. It has found gold and exploring for more... yet the share price kept falling! And if your name is in the registry very soon, you are entitled to the rights at 12c per share. I used to be in the green but now in the red with BSR. When more gold is uncovered, then I expect to be in paper profit again... soon.

ASX Guru's most recent posting

Time for another bragging right. The last 3 stocks to report a spike on ASX Guru... are part of my portfolio.

AKM was a slow mover and then it started rolling upwards. This was recommended by Robin Bromby when he talked about Mongolian stocks.

AFR was moving up like a sloth and then came a tipster and another good announcement. I picked up this stock after a Proactive Forum. The coal is shallow and thick but the problem is transport. Looks like the government is going to do something about it.

SER went up a little and then down. But when the North American moved in for a JV, the share price took a leap. And continued to stay up. This was my biggest investment out of the three. As usual, with a lot of investments in small companies, you have to wait for someone who is big pumping money into them before the market realise that value had been missed. At least in the resource sector, I have some idea about valuation. I have stopped investing in biotechs which are undervalued because you may have to wait a long, long time before a major pharmaceutical company takes it over.

GIR

This has got to be one of the best managed resource companies. I made a quick cash profit from ZNC IPO which GIR spun it off in 2007. And now, I am making 300% paper gain from CAP, another spin-off from GIR in late 2007.

But you need to be a sizeable holder of GIR before you get priority allocation of shares from companies spun off by GIR. Well, I bought and topped up GIR when no one was keen on it. And this is THE company that I have been harping since Stone Age. Yet no one bought when I first bought into it. And I don't know if anyone bought CAP.

I also made sure my wife is also a sizeable GIR shareholder so that she is 'prioritized' to buy shares. My super fund and Cilla are owners of GIR and CAP. GIR still have lots of unexplored tenements. In fact, it is one of the biggest holder of tenements in Australia. They were collected on the cheap because the management has been... clever.

IPOs

When a good IPO comes a long, you the ordinary small investor, get nothing usually even if you applied for lots of shares. The unprofitable ones? You will get the lot!

But I own shares in MEP and it spun off TMZ. That means I am a "priority' investor so I manage to collect a small parcel. Yesterday, when it traded for the first time on the market, it provided a 25% stag profit. But I am a long term investor.


MEP hasn't been doing too well lately because one of its most recent drilling results was poor. But longer term? This is one of the most respected explorers in the ASX.

NYO

After reading in Proactive Weekly summary, I put a 40c buy price for NYO which had jumped following more gold discovery in Ethiopia. But no one knows where Ehiopia is other than the fact that it produces good marathon runners. People has only heard about King Solomon (with his gold mines) but are totally ignorant that he was an Ehiopian.

On Friday, I collected my small parcel. Luckily I didn't get all the shares I wanted in recent SPP or rights issue so I have spare cash.

ZGM

http://www.proactiveinvestors.com.au/companies/news/12509/zamia-metals-hits-massive-156-metre-continuous-molybdenum-intersection-at-anthony-12509.html

The CEO said, someday, investors will wonder how they bought the shares so cheaply. That was when it was below 10c. I have already topped up once when it went below 8c. As more minerals are discovered, the share price has been creeping upwards. So over 3 months, it is now up 26% in a quarter.

Why buy blue chips? Don't ever compete with the big fund managers. Best companies to buy are those with many idiotic sellers and you are not competing with too many smart buyers.... AND the companies have assets, proven (especially ignored producers) or LIKELY to be proven.

Anaesthesia does not make me more money now but it still gives me a lot of satisfaction and I get a lot of pleasure, being spoilt by nurses and doing my brain aerobic exercise. Most Aussies pay to do aerobic exercise in gyms and sweat for no financial gain. I do my grey matter work-up in the operating theatre... and get paid for it. But someday, when the rare stresses are no longer tolerable and outweigh the pleasure, then I will bid the profession farewell. In the stock market, losses are only money lost.

The medical profession is so indifferent in making the money they make, work for them.

AZXOA

Why did it go backwards at one stage recently after a good announcement? I have no idea but those moments are the best time to pick up new shares! The stock market is full of investment opportunities but my favourite past-time is to collect shares from incredulous sellers. Perhaps, they know more than I do.... and I am their silly buyer.

My options have gone up by nearly 40% over 3 months. Cilla says I am no longer thrilled unless a stock doubles in no time. Not true. Even 10% over a quarter is a good outcome and I love to see my stocks turn green on CommSec. Hardly anyone reads my blog but that is no loss to me as long as I am profiting! My postings must be one of the most profitable blogs to follow yet... ... no one advertises on it except for my own bragging!

ABU

http://www.proactiveinvestors.com.au/companies/news/12507/abm-resources-step-out-drilling-extends-mineralisation-at-buccaneer-gold-prospect-12507.html

Why did the share price fall when it found extension to its gold discovery? Inshallah! For me, it is like a red rag for topping up. Fools don't want ABU (grades too low?) and I am always on the lookout for idiotic sellers. David Tweed gets his cheap shares from gullible shareholders and I get cheap shares from dumb investors who sell WILLINGLY and KNOWINGLY... and FOOLISHLY.

MNC

Some companies are totally off the radar of the big investors. Yet, this one is possibly the biggest copper play amongst the current bunch of explorers. The boss claims that its other tenements in Chile could be bigger but not even rated by the market. The company is cashed up, too for drilling.

I am hoping no one wants this company while I accumulate cash...

http://www.proactiveinvestors.com.au/companies/news/12601/an-exciting-year-in-store-as-a-fully-funded-metminco-embarks-on-an-ambitious-drilling-programme-12601.html

Guts or Guile

I have had many stocks where nobody wanted them, generating big, big losses for me. But those where I know have value but are sold off by desperate/dim sellers, I don't ignore. In fact, if I didn't buy them at the awfully low offer price, I would have been much poorer since the turn of GFC. And today, I can add SGY to that list. I topped up recently at a SPP plan below market price at the maximum. After I bought, it went lower and lower. Did I get angry? No I didn't; just tested my patience.

You have to have guts to withstand the losses. And you need guile to read about the company to know that the losses are due to idiots selling. I love those idiots and wish there are a lot more of them!

And why bother buying BHP and RIO where there are not so many idiots on the registry?

At the last Proactive Investor Forum

There were 4 companies that presented. I could not get any SXX on the cheap; it has already bolted the day before the forum. But I bought into RMR at 2.8c; today it is 2.6c. It still holds great prospect as Greenland has to be economically independent of Denmark and the fastest route is by mining.

The standout is AFR. I bought it before D&D recommended it. And I bought because the coal it has been exploring is relatively shallow and has been thicker than anticipated. Its main problem is infrastructure, especially bulk transport to a large port.

At the second last forum, I came out thinking about SLR. I bought some and it has been stagnant. But it too has great prospect so I am going to accumulate more rather than sell it. Just look at SGY. Nobody wanted it until last week and now I am nicely positive. Just like that; big losses for a long time and then it turns when investors discover its potential.

NYO

When NYO hits my buy price, I am happy to own shares in it. People have forgotten how good the thickness and grade of its gold discovery is in Ethiopia. The share price is coming down after the rise following the recent announcement.

GBZ

What a nice reminder of history... repeating itself.

http://www.hotcopper.com.au/post_threadview.asp?fid=1&tid=1336545&msgno=6094089#6094089

It looks like the future is very rosy if the strikes are open ended. I have never wanted to sell GBZ because of its promising tenements. I have a large number of shares in GBZ but they were bought cheaply. Couldn't understand why no one want them!

It is so near the major mines that even if nothing was done to it, you would think one day, the major miners will buy it out! I am up by nearly 2.5X

Potash - ELM GMM TRH STB

I bought 3 potash companies when BHP put in a bid for Potash Corp. ELM mining in Congo has gone up by over 3x, GMM hit nothing like potash but this is outside the expected zone and the market didn't like that news (strange!), and TRH has gone up and coming down towards my buy price.

So how would you pick which stock if there was only one to choose? In a year's time, I think there will be little differences. In the meantime, STB (bought before the BHP bid) has found lots of it in Eritrea and has gone up exactly 10x my average buy price of 28.8c to $2.88.

STB

STB is another 10 bagger. I credit the buy to Robin Bromby from Pure Speculation in The Australian. His article appears for free on The Australian website but I also subscribe to the paper. My only problem is that the share price has been rising so I couldn't top up except for one entitlement a year ago. The first parcel was bought in June 2008 and my total outlay has jumped >10x.

What is a ten-bagger? Imagine you buy a house for $200,000 and it is worth $2,000,000. In my case, after 2.5 years. Retrospectively (useless in investment strategy), I would have borrowed $2 million to buy STB if I had known! Best thing about STB? The best is yet to come... This is only the exploration phase.

Thank you, Robin for sharing your wealth of information.

HGO

Sold some HGO shares today at 27.5c to purchase a larger amount for SPP at 25c. I am counting on its Kepala Burung tenement to deliver in the future. The share prices that I have bought at, are all over the place. For some reasons, exploration in Irian Jaya is so slow!

Poorly performing gold miners

I have no explaination. But I have suggestions. If the share prices are falling for no good reason, I top them up!

I have sold YTC because I didn't like the grades reported. So with the spare cash, I topped up SBL today. There is also BSR and ABU. Both have been reporting good news but the market sells them down. Em....

GBZ

Did anyone buy any GBZ? I never wanted to sell any GBZ recently because it has nearology and phosphate prospects. It isn't far from other successful copper mines so I kept all my shares this year.

I bought my first lot in 2008 at 8c and sold them about a year later for 15c and thought the buyer was crazy. It didn't stop at 15c... it went much further. But then it took a turn and started to fall and fall and fall. And even with good news flowing, investors are no longer keen on it.... except yours truly.

I even bought at 11c after RB wrote about its phospate prospect. And I did another top up at 5c in July 2010 when it had another good announcement but the market was uninterested. The share price had stopped performing wonders... until today. It leapt 100% today to 15.5c when it announced a major discovery.

One of the best investment virtues an investor can have is patience. The best asset an anaesthetist can have is also "patients". Always look after both!

MMR

It is falling. It is falling! Well, this must be a knock-on effect from MEO failing to find any hydrocarbon. The same be happen to MMR.

It has been falling and falling since MEO's failure. But today, when the price fell to 78c, I put a buy for it. Because it is no longer a penny dreadful, I cannot afford big parcels anymore. So I put in a bid for a small parcel and I will use this to trade MMR! All my MMR's capital has been recouped except for this small top-up today.

MEO

One empty hole and the share price tumbled nearly 60%. And then MMR fell in sympathy. Luckily my MEO parcel is small. But my MMR parcel is big. In a fortnight's time, I will know whether MMR is just hot air or hydrocarbon. If it is dense with hydrocarbon, I am going to celebrate in a big way. If it is pure hype, I will continue with anaesthesia for a while!

Investing is about risk. You calculate that with a overpressured zone that there will be hydrocarbon.... but there was nothing at the target! Still there are other holes for MEO to drill and we will wait and see.

QMN

This is a DH favourite but had been doing badly for no good reason.

Yet last week, with the first really good news, the share price jumped. So this Wednesday, you will hear him harping how good QMN is. Nice to be ahead of him and nice to have accumulated it at a cheaper cost base! I bought them because they were sold at a cheaper price than DH's buy price :-)

All you have to do with this kind of investment is to be patient and watch it deliver.... If you have paid to listen to DH, you might as well do as he suggests. Afterall, over the last 25 years, I don't know of anyone more successful than him at stock picking.

BPT and RDR

Today, ASX Guru reviews 2 companies, BPT and RDR. It is so nice to be ahead of him!

When BPT fell below 80c, I have been topping my holdings up. But this was to no avail in spite of optimistic outlook for this company. The share price kept falling or dipping below 70c. The promise of shale gas did nothing unless last week when it hit a larger than expected column shale gas.

So I am inclined to name BPT as my second oil and gas explorer to explode in price :-)

And RDR has been yoyoing but not doing much when it holds so much prospect for lithium. Eventually, patience will pay off. I am already on a paper profit but expecting a lot more soon. Same thing goes for GXY, another lithium miner.

NYO

Under my wife's name, I have put in a bid at 40c. There is gold in Ethiopia. Aren't Aussies adventurous! No Aunty Julia or Uncle Wayne there. For a poor country, there are fewer hardline socialists there! Well, the Ehiopians got rid of her communist government a long time ago.

PIROA

Another West African miner ad nauseum.

I bought the options, to be exercised before Dec 2012, for around 20c each, on two separate occasions in Sept and Oct 2010. Why? The EV of the gold it has already found is too low...

Today, the options have gone up by 117% in less than 3 months. Is anyone listening?

It is also true that I have stocks that fall but these are stocks to top up, not jettison. For example GMM. I have put in a buy at 9.5c if anyone wants to sell at that price.

SBL

Azumah - priced $201 million
Ampella - priced $572 million
SBL - priced $48 million

The first two have less resources.

So you ask how does the market value a stock? Ampella has been hitting more and more good grades and SBL is starting to drill more. When the results are out, then we know which way SBL will go. With most West African miners, it seems nearly every hole hits gold!

At the moment, SBL is under 3c a share, to be precise 2.6c. I have topped up 4 times since Feb 2010 at 2c, 2.2c, 2.2c and 2.5c. When spare cash surfaces, I will try and top up before the drilling results are out. I like to bet on 'expected' winners.

GTE

This is another crazy stock of mine. Nothing proven so far but plenty, plenty of hype. The hype seems plausible and drilling has started. So, if like Chrysalis, the drilling into 'anomalies' turns out to be nothing, then the share price will plunge. But then usually, that is not the case, ie anomaly turns out something valuable. Why spend the money on the technology otherwise?

When GTE was worth next to nothing, someone sold to me for 3.1c. And then this year, in September, it fell after I suggested that my readers buy it. Well, I bought more when it fell because again someone sold at below my buy price so I collected another lot at 23.5c. Today, it went up by 4c to 52c.

GIR

http://www.minesite.com/nc/minews/singlenews/article/giralia-resources-adds-some-serious-tonnage-to-its-mcphee-creek-iron-ore-project-in-western-australi/1.html

Our Man In Oz has spoken.

Like him, I cannot understand some sellers. Who are these absolute idiots? Is there a method to their madness? Any reader of my emails who hasn't bought GIR a long time ago, has to have his/her rectum examined. It isn't just me who has highlighted how good this company is. Yet while its share price has appreciated, you just cannot comprehend why the share price falls when it makes a great announcement.

Stock picking

When I pick a stock, I expect to make money out of it. Why are some stocks so good, while others are dogs? I have no idea until the truth comes out. Directors can pull wool over your eyes.

Today, look at AFR. A share tipster thinks it will go up >5x soon, the share price shot up today by 33%. When I bought it, I never saw this coming. But it is nice when I am ahead with my purchase.

I also have a lot that fell today. In fact, the falls are significant enough to deprive me of any alpha so I consider it a loss today.

DH

He has spoken so TRF will move upwards tomorrow. His reasons are the same as mine! I managed to pick up some TRF at 41c last week. There was no reason for falling. In fact, there were reasons for rising when its main holdings went up in value! People pay to listen to DH, yet they can listen to me for free!

LRF

LRF was ignored for a long, long time. But its share price discount to NTA is diminishing over the last few months. When I was highlighting it, the share price was low. Now it is in the mid90's.

Suddenly, people realize that its investment portfolio has great stocks. One of them is RIV. RIO wants it now so the price has jumped. And LRF is one of the big shareholders. So LRF has finally given me paper profit!

AFR

I heard it from the horse's mouth. AFR's CEO presented at the last Proactive meeting which I attended.

This evening, Diggers and Drillers (a share tipster) recommends AFR. But one thing he is not right about and will affect the outcome in future: the railway line. While there is one not far away, it CANNOT be used for bulk transport. So the company has to rely on Indian developers (who has invested big in another nearby coal mine) or the Botswana government to build another line to a port. This is very, very expensive as the mines are very far inland and the ports need to be upgraded.

Well, I bought it soon after the meeting. As usual, it fell first but now I am nearly 15% positive. Not bad for something bought less than a month ago. Tomorrow, it will fly if DJ does not collapse.

HEG

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20101208/pdf/31vgjpd81n9tvd.pdf

When you read an announcement like that, nothing much happens. No one seems to trust the geologist's eye. Yet when the result is published, and the the gold grade is good, the share price will run up (unless DJ index is down which affects sentiment). If gold is visible, it is good news but no one is interested....

... except me!

ASX Guru

Today, he discussed a few of my stocks. I have bought stocks based on his recommendations too.

I did top up NAV when it fell so I am expecting it to do well again.

And SER has suddenly jumped again, presumable for strategic reasons for the Japs.

RMR is going to be recognized for its Greenland investment.

And MEO is just starting to deliver on its hype. We don't know the full story yet but it is looking promising.

RIA, MEO and a few other O&G explorers

Wow! What a jump today for RIA! You can only conclude that there is either a 'delayed' investor or inside information. The former is okay but the latter is disgusting because it is not a level playing field.

I have invested in offshore tenements off Sydney, NW Shelf, Palawan, Gulf of Mexico, Gulf of Tonkin, Angola, Brazil, Morocco, Kenya, Ghana, Ivory Coast and Senegal. Which one comes to fruition first, I won't know. Neither would I know which will the first of my oil exploration stocks to go under.

Actually I can tell you which one is first off the block but it isn't my most profitable one yet. MEO has stopped drilling because it has hit "over-pressured" gas. Isn't that a nice description?! I have never sold off any MEO shares; in fact, I bought more when the share price fell. And if the gas turns out to be 13 TCF then the share price will explode.... or rather expand.

It is so easy to pick MEO. The company has hinted that based on their assessment, there is likely to be 13 TCF of gas. And if Petrobra enters the share registry in a big way, then you can be near certain that it would have done its homework and put lots of money into drilling the deep water. So why not join in? Is it too late now? Inshallah!

Vanadium anyone?

http://www.proactiveinvestors.com/companies/news/10395/the-vanadium-market-vanadium-redox-batteries-may-be-the-future-10395.html

I held RDR for over 3 years (excluding a top up) but it has not appreciated like the West African miners. However, at least it is up 33%. Note in the article another Vanadium explorer, SPM. Nice to get in early...

MMR and RMR

The drilling rig for MMR is delayed by 6 days, and the market marked down the share price of MMR. You really wonder who are these absolute idiots who sold just because of that minor delay.

RMR's drilling is also delayed/affected by a hurricane and maybe the result is not up to expectation so the market also marked it down. But read ASX Guru's opinion and the note from RB.

http://asxguru.com.au/2010/12/

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/mining-energy/a-handful-to-reap-rare-earths-boom/story-e6frg9ex-1225965133126



Pity I don't have spare money to mop them up! I cannot get enough of idiotic sellers. While they lower the value of my stocks, in the long run, they are invaluable to me.

OBL

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20101202/pdf/31vbpy5cdbwnmy.pdf

Is that hype or is that real? And if the chance of success is so good, surely the share price won't be so low. This is where you have to sit out and wait for the drilling results. When the price runs, you are too late. If the price falls, it comes down hard. You rely on the experts to give you an opinion yet it sometimes sounds like a hype. Did the company pick the "experts" with the most favourable report? Inshallah! Personally, I like to buy when companies are worth next to nothing. OBL is worth <5c a share and I am still at a loss. Someday soon, I hope to say "It has turned green at last!"

At least MMR, FAR and PCL have made me paper gains.

Reflection of DJ

Whenever DJ goes up by a lot, like >1.5%, my own portfolio never do as well. There is no logic to it. But when DJ goes up by a bit, then I can look forward to collecting alpha. So today, the market went up by nearly 2% but mine is under 1%.

Also whatever I buy do not usually shoot up immediately. Patience is required. And when some of them rise, I have no idea why it shoots up so much. You can say I am lucky sometimes.

WGR

Someone in hotcopper pointed out that WGR has not jumped when all its recent announcements have been great

http://imagesignal.comsec.com.au/asxdata/20101130/pdf/01126859.pdf

I knew about the announcements but I never bought into it because I felt I have missed another boat... and I have ADN in an adjoining tenement. But when I looked at the chart for WGR, it is quite unbelievable that it has been ignored by the market. So if the price does not jump today, I will sell something to buy it. The grades and thickness of Au and Cu are fantastic but deep.

DJ's puppy

We will follow DJ's lead today and the ASX will rise. But when it is such a huge jump, my stocks usually get left behind because institutions are only interested in the top 200. While price of oil has gone up, the price of gold lifted by a much smaller margin. AUD has also moved to over 96c, so the effect on gold is negative. Today, it will be the turn of the banks. And WOW and QBE which I have sold recently to fund my many small mining purchases.

What is most delightful is that many of my seedlings have sprouted and rising! My two new puppies haven't chewed the new leaves yet but they have trampled a few. I love the rain! People PAY to do exercise these days and that is why gyms proper. I do it on 2 kind of beds and the garden bed is also very rewarding. Give me gardening over running on a treadmill or pumping iron anytime. I won't pay to sweat. The sweat has to reward me.

RMR

I didn't want to wait any longer with RMR so I bought some yesterday at 2.8c. Today, before the market closed, it went up significantly from 2.7c to 3.2c. When you read the announcement AFTER the market closed, you will find an announcement indicating that it is heading the right direction with their expected discovery. You can be certain that there has been inside information. I am glad that I chose to buy before it jumped. I have missed the boat with SXX. But you cannot be in too many boats as each boat requires cash before you can jump into it.

ROL and TRF

How ridiculous! TRF owns a huge chunk of ROL. Today, ROL went up and TRF went down. I topped up TRF a long time ago when ROL announced a good gold discovery in Romang Island in Indonesia. The price of TRF shot up subsequently. I felt very clever because not many people in the market is aware of that fact. Well, TRF continues to drift downward and so today, at a lower price, I topped up again!