SLR

After a Proactive Presentation, I bought SLR. It has never quite recovered!

But just look at its drilling result...

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20110330/pdf/41xqvx4my5rntn.pdf

You wonder how the market value a miner!

AXE

My portfolio is top heavy with AGO because of my GIR shares. Today, I sold a big chunk of it. This is to realize cash. And soon I will be selling back my BHP shares but I will do that later just before closing date.

So today, I bought into AXE which has lots of tenements in Eyre Peninsula. And I like the graphite story. It looks like the grade is better than SER and the potential is bigger.

AZH

Once upon a time, West Africa was joined to South America. So if you find gold in West Africa, you will find gold in the North East of South America. Likewise, for oil.

I have invested in both minerals.

And I have made a lot of money out of AZH and hope to make more. The SPP for AZH was oversubscribed so there will be a scale-down. AZH is a very bad company as it often only looks after its cronies. Last time, I missed out on the SPP. In fact, they sent me back my cheque untouched. I had the last laugh as I bought the shares cheaper!

I love the greenstone belt in Guyana!

http://imagesignal.comsec.com.au/asxdata/20110321/pdf/01163693.pdf

News...

What is so fucking important about the cricket captain of Australia for the papers to go on for pages and the news bulletin to devote more than 10 minutes to that thrash?

And the nuclear disaster in Japan? Next to nothing. Yet it is this nation's second most important trading partner.

And news from Libya, Yemen, Bahrain and Syria are left to nuts like me. Yet, it affects the price of oil that affects everyone's economy.

At least now I know who is the next Aussie who is going to earn more than $2 million a year.

VKA

I think I have to go to primary school to refresh my multiplication tables.

I bought 10x more share in VKA than I was going to buy! I put one "0" too many for the number of shares! Luckily it wasn't my super fund portfolio. So tomorrow, I will have to sell some shares to correct the error.

But VKA is so cheap from a EV/Oz Au valuation. In fact extremely cheap. So if the share price goes up tomorrow, it will be great for me! So I have to hope that the price of gold will not fall tomorrow.

STB

At the rate that it is discovering potash at relatively shallow depth, it won't be long before a big miner comes barging into STB shareholders' registry. Actually.... BHP does have a tenement there but it is not doing anything. Strange.

Australia - Cheap de la cheap!

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/rba-tips-120bn-flood-of-capital-as-dollar-hits-post-float-record/story-e6frg8zx-1226029063163

Why has it taken the world such a long time to realize that Aussies are undervaluing their assets? Meanwhile, all those financial experts are paid millions for their opinion. I could have told those big foreign fund managers to put their money into Australia.

That is one main reason why Aussie firms had been going to AIM and TSX to list. I prefer to stay at home! And let them come....

RIA

This one was a great performer but for some unknown reasons, it has drifted downwards. So far, it is all hype but if the surrounding successes are to be believed, the RIA has a great future. I bought at a low price so I am still onto a profit. Whether it is a good buy now that it has fallen back, can only be answered retrospectively after oil is found in commercial quantity in any of its tenements.

I love topping up when prices are falling, for no good reason. But my problem is I am running low on cash until after BHP buyback.

BHP

My super fund holds BHP. And anyone paying minimal tax would be crazy not to cash out during the buyback to take the tax advantage... permitted by the ATO!!! The accountant I sleep with, has been reminding me to keep some cash handy so the BHP event will be my source of $$$. Anyone who does not understand the benefits can ask me. It is so simple that even I can understand. What I can't understand is why the ATO sanctions it.

Mines and Money in Hong Kong

http://www.minesite.com/nc/minews/singlenews/article/that-was-the-week-that-was-in-australia-and-hong-kong/80.html?tx_ttnews[pS]=1298574118&cHash=b907181d1f

I am sure I have spoken of BDR before. The quality of its announcements has always been spectacular, yet the share price does not reflect the optimism. My only top up in Jan 2011 was relatively expensive because the share price never went over it for a long time. But it never went very low either. However, with more and more good news, the share price has finally climbed.

I topped up GORO during the nuclear crisis. Price of gold didn't fall yet share prices of gold miners were tumbling. When I picked up more GORO, I thought maybe I should have put a lower bid price. As usual, anything I bought during a nasty crisis is usually rewarding. Retrospectology has no place in investment strategy... unless you learnt from it!

Based on what Our Man In Oz has highlighted, these are the stocks I would be interested in and they all drifted down last week when they should have risen. MNC, KAS, VMS and GXY are worthy considerations. MMX is not because there is a good reason for its fall. DH and I like IMA but this one is a 'slow' tortoise. One day when it starts producing, you will realise that you have missed its boat. The boss of IMA likes to explore and explore and explore... but recently he has taken an interest in PRODUCTION. Best thing is the share price of IMA has fallen to its long trough.

Potash

Most potash stocks were up last night in Toronto and NY stock exchanges.

STB is in a trading halt pending an announcement of its latest drilling results. While ELM went up by more than 5%. Sometimes I wonder how I managed to pick up these stocks. Lots of share tipsters are talking about big companies that should be going up in value, for example Newcrest.

Why bother with the big boys when the little ones are going up in folds rather than percentage points? Thanks to BHP's failed attempt at the takeover of Potash Corp, STB has gone up 13x and ELM 7X. And GMM is starting to creep up, too. It is too cold to drill in Mongolia in winter so when GMM finally find potash, it too will fly. Of course, if it finds nothing, then it is worth nothing.

RWD should sack its board and replace it with a team that knows how to deal with the Native Titles. Aborigines deserve a good profit. There is potash in Lake Disappointment in WA but it is the board that disappointed me.

Au

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/gold-and-gold-stocks-are-inhabiting-two-different-worlds-say-experts/story-e6frg8zx-1226028335369

When you read an article like that, you would realise that most Aussie investors only think in the short term AND grossly undervalue their own miners. That is great for me but in the long run, it is the nation that loses out because we keep selling off our great mines/discoveries to others. I just wish Aussies play less sports... but in the meantime, I love it that the other Aussies are playing more sports as I get to invest cheaply!

ARD

http://seekingalpha.com/article/152876-the-gold-silver-ratio-from-1300-to-1900-and-now
http://seekingalpha.com/article/14922-is-the-old-gold-silver-ratio-of-16-still-alive-today

Those articles are by the same author. He must own a silver mine.

With the price of Au racing up, Ag has been left lagging. RB has been telling people to invest in Ag mines but I left it too late. Au has fewer industrial usage than Ag. Traditionally, Chinese invest in Ag rather than Au until around the turn of the 20th Century.

I bought ARD when I put a low price and picked the stock up when the market fell heavily recently. I forget to shift the buy price lower. But it is rare that I regret buying during the peak of a crisis. Peak? The Japanese nuclear dilemma is not over yet! And the Mad Dog of the Middle East is still fervently mad.

BSR

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/mining-energy/west-africa-gold-keeps-calling/story-e6frg9ex-1226028178194

Investors are rushing in to buy companies moving into West Africa. Yet, companies that are already there and found gold are dumped. What is wrong with these people with money? They must like novelties. I still like BSR; it is my only West African stock that remains a loss. So much the better; that would allow me to accumulate slowly!

Last time I bought was on 10/3/11 when its share price was lower than its rights issue price.

GORO

At the height of the Japanese nuclear crisis, I also picked up some GORO. I sold some AGO shares, just in case and to have some cash at hand. Well, GORO was not doing much and then it sprinted today. For a while, I thought maybe I made the wrong decision as AGO is rising again but GORO is rising faster now.

If GORO can prove that Yarmana basin is indeed the fourth gold band, then the share price will rise much more.

Proactive Investor presentations

These are free. With adequate wine and inadequate snacks supplied at Marriott Hotel in Circular Quay. Many Chinese and Indians in the audience. I suspect Jews, too but that estimate is based on facial feature so I could be wrong.

However, why not more people attend these free seminars, I have no idea. The CEOS are presenting at no cost to the investing audience. None of my readers attend yet it is MOST PROFITABLE to attend. On the average, you earn more from the four hours (including 2 hours to and from Penrith) it takes than the 4 fours operating or consulting, either as a gasman, a surgeon or GP.

Of course, I have had losses, too from these presentations. But overall, there are more successes beyond market averages. What prompted this note? I had just looked at GLF and AVA... bought after attending the meetings. And I failed to get Equigold which was taken over by Lihir Gold, which was taken over by Newcrest.

AKM

When a big private equity fund wants your stock, it does miracle for the share price. But private equity funds are never on the registry for altruistic reason nor to look after the other shareholders. These are ruthless investors. And you never know why they pop up other than to profit themselves.

At the moment, my AKM has gone up >6x. Again, my thanks to RB, and thanks but no thanks to Noble.

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/mining-energy/miners-in-mongolian-land-rush/story-e6frg9ex-1225929699360

If any Aussie wants to retire earlier comfortably, follow RB and watch less sports....

ERN GMM

Both jumped by >10% today but I have no idea why.

GMM has potash... potentially
ERN has gold.... potentially.

Both are hype with some basis. And with great prospect. Still waiting for a JORC-compliant resource statement. Nice for them to turn green anyway. It is always puzzling why some stocks jump with no announcement while others languish with good drilling results.

BSR

The best stocks to buy in the long run are those that have value in them yet are grossly under-priced by the market. Before the Japanese market crashed, the PE ratios for many stocks were over 100.

But resource stocks are rarely income producing. However, if there is proven mineral wealth in the ground, there is a value attached to it. And if each time, it discovers more valuable deposit but its share price continues to fall, then you know some investors are being stupid.

There are MANY stupid investors in BSR and I absolutely adore them.... while I am not forced to sell any. If you list tomorrow in the ASX and you tell the market that you are exploring in West Africa, people will invest in your company. Yet, if you tell the market that you have found gold and finding more, those same investors are selling down their holdings.

Sometimes, when something is too good to be true, they are not true but with BSR, it is definitely stupidity and it is real! Unless, the board of directors are lying or fudging figures.

ERN

Suddenly it jumped 24% yesterday. So I am back on positive territory. But I have no idea why it jumped. There was no announcement although it had a presentation about 3 weeks ago.

That is the joy ride in investing in a company, brave enough to even step foot in the DRC where Tarzan used to hang around or thereabout.

Silver

At the height of the effect of the Japanese nuclear crisis on the world markets, I was sold some ARD shares. I put what I considered to be a very low buy price and took my eyes off while at work. When I got home, I had to pay for those shares!

As I have always said, some of my best performers were bought when the market was dumping shares. You have to be brave and a fool at the same time. But sometimes, a fool can be a contrarian. A week later, it is up 31%. And Ag has hit a record price but is still undervalued relative to the price of gold.

Pilbara tenement

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/mining-energy/fortescue-rejects-rios-pilbara-land-swipe/story-e6frg9df-1226026230160

Makes you think who is going to the richest person in Australia for longest and where the future of Pilbara lies, if China and India are going to progress further. India has its own Fe but China's Fe ore is inferior in quality.

I haven't done well out of FMG because I bought very late. The press was very unkind to Andrew while he was working on getting the Pilbara project off the ground.

RRSO

Another great run today because of what is happening in Texas.

But a bigger event is progressing in Georgia where a rig has been mobilized with spudding in April 2011. If successful in proving what is expected to be found, then today's great rise is trivial. Most drilling ends up with nothing but the Russian technology claims >80% success.

Well, we will wait and see....

AZH

During the Greek crisis, AZH went down very low yet it holds great promises in Guyana. Price of gold has not fallen. I bought at 5.1c. Yesterday, with a good announcement of a drilling result, it lifted to 23c. The Greek tragedy was only less than a year ago. I maintained it was a tempest in a teacup. The lazy Greeks (in Greece) deserve to be admonished. They still think they are the centre of the world so you can expect another crisis soon. To prosper, you have to work hard AND sell things that people want to buy. Just pioneering democracy is not good enough and having old buildings is not enough either to be wealthy and you can only eat that much olive; the fruit or its oil.

I am topping up more AZH through its SPP but in the past, only its cronies get the shares.

Price of producing food

Corn is up 77%, wheat 43%, potash 20% and phosphate 50% - in the last year.

People need to be fed. And people from nations which are becoming wealthier can afford to be fed. Uralkali has bumped up its potash price to India, China and Brazil (with nearly 3 billion mouths to be fed).

All these information from RB in Pure Speculation.

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/mining-energy/japans-nuclear-fallout-hits-promising-producers/story-e6frg9ex-1226024978078

GMM has now gone up by >40%, MNB >30% (last top up has fallen in price though), ELM >500% and MAK >35%. I have just applied for 2 lots of PWN too, spun off by IMA. The closing date for priority application was very early. If I had relied on the paper prospectus from WA, I would have missed it. Luckily I submitted early using forms from electronic prospectus. I won't get all I ask for as there aren't a lot of shares to go around but at least there will be a decent parcel for all.

For those who missed out on PWN, you should consider IMA, the parent company. This stock is like the perpetual student collecting degrees. IMA keeps collecting tenements and announcing good drilling results and making money from spin 0ffs but it has failed to PRODUCE the minerals. Look at its chart to see how its share price has been under-performing. For me, it is a long term holding. And I love value for money.

Recent top ups and buys

When the market was tumbling, I picked up some shares that I didn't have any hope of getting at the price I bid for. Most are up a little today after going down further, but GMM is up a lot. EDE and MNB are down but these are stocks that I am buying for long term prospect.

If the nuclear reactor continues to threaten Tokyo than the market is going to be volatile. But if it can be controlled, then stock markets will start to jump again. Libya is going to have only a temporary effect even on oil. I have no idea which way the markets will go. Most stocks that I have bought in the past, have done exceptionally well when the crisis turns for the better. And so I hope!

SIH

I never understand why so few investors want SIH. Good consistent drilling results and steady gold price but the share price has been drifting downwards to 20c. But today, with a 43% rise in JORC resource, the share price leapt to 24.5c. After a few days, it will settle down again but I just don't understand its share price movements, ie the history of it. Because it is in Indonesia?

Anyway, it does not matter to me as I am onto very nice profit out of it, having bought and topped up at much lower price. I would have bought more at 20c but I have to keep my cash handy in turbulent times.

goro

Our Man in Oz has spoken. What surprised me was GOR has gone up a little with the good announcement of its resource at one spot but the options went down. The options slip to 32c while the ordinary share went to 42c. The options expired in June 2011 at 6c each. Do the arithmetic yourself and you can see the value.

So I have attempted to buy all the 33c options that are available. First bought at 5.8c in Sept 2010, and topped up at 31c two months later. It keeps discovery gold veins but the market does not like this stock. I do!

Shale gas

The USA has a lot of it and the technology to extract is far ahead of the rest. Small companies are now being bought for much larger sum of money as the wealth under the ground is realized by the big boys. Most of my shale gas companies there are doing very well.

But in Australia, a lot of them are ignored by the stock market. You will find a few big boys but the biggest tenements are still owned by the small fellas. And the Japanese are going to have to consider using LNG (from shale gas, coal seam methane or natural gas) to fire their generators.

The stock market moves acutely on current events but I am looking further ahead. For yonks, my SGY in the USA was under water until someone realized how valuable its exploration ground is for hydrocarbons. I bought BKP in Jan 2011 and it has gone up by 40%... based purely on hype. Its most recent spurt must be due to the idea that the Japanese are coming.

AKM

Thank you RB. He told me about AKM and it has not flinched during the Japanese or Middle East crises. But I haven't been watching it closely recently. I knew it had been rising but I didn't know that it has been rising and rising and rising and rising. So suddenly when I became aware of it, it is up more than 5x and the CEO says don't look into the past or you will never buy anymore.

http://ss01.boardroomradio.com/files/AKM/Aspire_pres.pdf

You can watch him on www.brr.com.au and you can hear him says how cheap AKM is.

For a small investment, it has grown phenomenally. It is scary to top it up now. What is remarkable of course is my constant harping about Mongolian stocks and only one listened and only two Mongolian stocks were bought.....

Buying during crisis

Has the crisis passed? Definitely not! But it is so difficult to resist buying good value stocks when the prices are down. Nothing for me to brag about because the stocks I bought in the last week and my portfolio could still plunge further if Tokyo gets immersed in radioactivity.

ARD is a silver miner. I collected it near its trough. Within no time, it is up nearly 20%.
MNB and EDE have fallen 10% while GMM has risen 10%. So overall, nothing spectacular and the future is still a betting game with Japan on the edge.

If no severe radioactivity occurs, then look at the price of gold and oil. And Japan will need a lot of minerals for reconstruction and coal, oil and gas and copper are going to be in demand. The Japanese are a most disciplined and hardworking race. The tsunami and earthquake effects can be fixed... but not the man-made disaster if it is as bad as Chernobyl.

Just stay away from uranium for the time being. The recovery will be slow for these stocks.

Robin Bromby

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/analysts-keep-faith-in-energy-stocks-there-are-uncertainties-in-the-short-term-but-their-long-term-outlook-is-bright/story-e6frg8zx-1226024109545

RB has digested the facts and research for you. For me, I will look to top up ERH on Monday but it will be up because when you read in between the lines, Mr Locastro was telling his clients to pile in. I have a huge loss with ERH because I bought it preGFC. Now is an opportunity to bring down the average buy price.

MEP again and the Braemar Fe Formation

http://www.proactiveinvestors.com.au/genera/files/companies/proactive_investors_presentation__mep__16_mar_2011.pdf

For an explorer with a good reputation, the market is very indifferent to this stock. That is so good for me! I have already topped up in the past. If it stays there, it is opportunity for top up rather than lamenting. And not only in MEP but also HAV. CAP, an early off-shoot of GIR, has already made me a lot of $$$. All have discovered Fe ore in that area near Broken Hill.

MEP

In the midst of lots of bad news, here is an announcement that has been predicted.

http://www.proactiveinvestors.com.au/companies/news/14725/minotaur-exploration-drilling-identifies-thick-magnetite-intervals-at-mutooroo-14725.html

MEP has been at the forefront of mineral exploration. And while faith can be placed on it, the share price has not been performing. I love this kind of sentiment. Pity I don't have a lot of spare dough. But I did top up some time ago. If more Fe ore is discovered, there is room for the share price to rise further. I hope!

EDE

It didn't matter to me what the share price of EDE is today. I put a buy at market price to round up my holding because I was only interested in a long term scenario.

Take a molecule of methane and do a pyrolysis to get 2 hydrogen molecules (2H2) and 1 carbon to attach to a carbon nanotube. After making this spectacular technology possible, it then went on to produce the catalyst (15 times faster) for the production of the nanotubes. And then another report where it is used in concrete, making it stronger, and requiring lower volume of cement. It does not rust.

No radiation is produced and no CO2 is generated during the pyrolysis itself, nor during the combustion of H2. And you have carbon nanotubes to sell at a premium. Most Aussies have a low opinion of Australian technology. Not me.

AGO

I saw AGO share price went up this AM so I sold some to materialize some cash. The entitlements and SPPs for AZH and RDR are not worth taking up at the moment but I still want some cash handy. Today, the markets reversed but I don't know for how long. With this kind of market sentiment, my portfolio is extremely volatile. I discount the alpha I got today. Nothing to feel proud about.

Stock meltdown

If you had bought yesterday, you would have done well today. But how many would be brave... or stupid enough? I was stupid enough! I got a few buys because I put very low price on some stocks and collected them before I could change the price. So I was a bit stupid because up till today, you cannot tell which way the nuclear reactors were going. I then canceled a lot of my outstanding orders.

I collected cheap gold miner MAT, potash GMM, phosphate MNB, BSR and even ARD (a silver miner) in the last 2 days. So I am low on cash again! BSR even announced a good gold find in the midst of the turmoil. Those wanting a punt, BSR, MAT and MNB have gone lower than what I bought at recently.

In nearly all my past dealings, I have done well out of stocks bought when there is a crisis. Unfortunately, this crisis can be a lot more serious and a long more "permanent". At the moment, I am less concerned with how poorly my stocks are performing. My mood is sombre because of the carnage in Japan, following the massive earthquake, the destructive tsunami and now the possible meltdown of the nuclear reactorS.

Stocks are be revived but injuries can be permanent and lives lost are not retrievable. And I have easily serviceable debt. The fall in value in my portfolio is trivial compared to what others in Japan, Christchurch and Libya have to endure.

Stock meltdown

Life is still kind to me. Compared to Japanese living under a cloud of radioactivity and after being smashed by a horrific tsunami, and compared to Kiwis in Christchurch being hit by earthquake twice, what I have lost is truly nothing.

And whatever margin lending I have, it is easily serviceable and can be repaid whenever I want to. Luckily I don't like to borrow. And we don't want to invest using big loans.

AZXOA

At the last Proactive presentation, someone asked about the possibility of AZX taking over one of its largest shareholders' stake. You can tell from the CEO's body that there is something already going on. Yesterday, it was GGG making an offer to snatch AZX. At the current offer, it 'looks' good but it is actually under valuing AZX's potential.

Before the meeting, I met the CEO and thanked him for making me a nice profit.

AZXOA

In the midst of my severely marked down stocks, I have something to cheer about. GGG (not the local ASX:GGG) from UK has made an offer to takeover AZH. So there is good money to be made, in the short term. However, I still think AZX is for the long term and hoping the board won't recommend acceptance unless the price is much higher.

Market sentiment

When it is very negative, it is impossible to instill logic. Gold is still high, oil hasn't fallen much... yet oil/gas and gold stocks have gone in a severe reverse. China is not reversing its nuclear energy policy but uranium stocks are in free fall.

Last week, I sold CPU and so have so spare cash which were meant for SPP, entitlements and floats. As usual, the best time to buy is when market is marked down severely.

Meltdown

Many events that occurred in the last week are part of nature. But not the nuclear meltdown. Obviously, there is negligence or criminal activity in that oldest nuclear power station in Japan. Maybe, the shutdown process has not been properly maintained because it is virtually never used. Maybe, because it is expensive to restart a nuclear power station, it has been activated with reluctance... and the delay is disastrous.

We often have to wait for a terrible outcome to occur before correcting it or instigating a firm plan to stop it from happening... when prevention would be cheaper. Someone from Tokyo Power is going to 'lose face' while a few millions get nuked.

KRL

Not all coal turn to gold in a portfolio. Here is one that is turning sour. For some strange reason, coal in Kalimantan is worth less than coal from southern Africa. Perhaps, the quality is not as good. Yet Indonesia is nearer the market. Banpu is buying in Mongolia as well so I wonder why it is ignoring cheaper Indonesia black gold.

But this is not a stock I would sell either....

BDR

I do not remember seeing any bad announcements from BDR. In fact, it is so hard to believe the share price has fallen from its peak. All results from drilling have been good. My profit is derived from the first parcel and I topped up with a recent good news. Well, any spare cash will be dumped into BDR. This one HAS found minerals and is not hype. But its share price is not pittance either. But if it continues to report good grades in all its tenements, it cannot keep falling unless China says so.

GBE and RSL

These two are in cahoot. Yet, one remains flat and the other has been falling. Meantime, GBE has been feeding the ASX with good announcements. No spare cash but it is easy to work out which one is better value. Maybe, I am not reading their announcements correctly.

Insurers

I read Mike Hawkins' article in Eureka Report. I got rid of QBE in Oct 2010. In time of disasters, avoid insurers. If QBE is involved with re-insurance, then the Japanese earthquake is bound to affect it unless no insurer would touch Japan when it comes to underwriting earthquake issue.

With so many natural disasters downunder, I am glad I have nothing more to do with insurers. Yet, why is MH recommending QBE? Smart or dumb? Did he missed out on the news of the biggest earthquake recorded in Japan and its consequences?

Stick to potash, phosphate, silver, coal, gold and oil..... yes, and graphite.

MNB

When the market is down, for me it is the best time to buy. Will any of the current issues change the market, long term?

How long can UN sit and deliberate while the Mad Dog kills his subjects?
Japan will forever have tsunamis and have been having tsunamis since god knows when; it is only a short term issue.
Chinese government will be overthrown if the market remains in the doldrums.
Indians wanted to go back to the hand-powered spinning wheel to make their textile?

Meantime, everyone has to eat. And you need phosphate in your fertiliser. I just topped up my MNB last Thursday. While it has fallen back last week, it is still up 50% for my first parcel bought in Nov 2011. I wonder whether sellers are looking for idiotic buyers like me...

TRH

Someone in Hotcopper did a simple calculation of TRH EV. It owns a chunk of RAD and has cash in the bank. There is a potential potash deposit in the USA and it is looking at coal in Columbia. After accounting for market worth of RAD and the cash, TRH is worth very little. That means if you buy TRH, you are essentially paying for RAD shares and its cash holding. The potash and coal hype is worth almost nothing.

Potash worth almost nothing? Potash in the USA? Coal in Columbia worth nothing?

pounded

Japan was pounded by a tsunami yesterday and my portfolio was pounded, too. But Japan has always recovered fast and well from natural disasters. So I am hoping to emulate.

Interestingly, the stocks that got pounded most in my case were those that rose the most. So it isn't that bad. Moreover, I got to pick up some stocks on the cheap. Well, it is only cheap if the market rallies. Based on my own experience, the great buys have been done when market turns very negative. Today, DJI went up!

If the market tumbled because China sneezed, Saudi Shites were shot at for protesting, Gaddhafi having a free run on the rebels and bombing his oil installations, USA faltering recovery and Greens controlling the Aussie government, then all these have been factored in. The Japanese major earthquake is always a case of "When is it going to happen?".

So, I am relaxed... and still putting in buys on the cheap. I have picked up MAT, BSR and MNB. And applying for PWN and Musgrave Gold floats. There is also a few entitlements and RDR SPP.

China sneezed

China sneezed and the world catches a cold! How things have changed.

But the poor trade performance was over the Chinese New Year period. Like Aussies, work slows down for a few days (Aussies for 1 month!), and lots of people buy new things around that time using their cash gifts. So why are western analysts surprised by the trade deficit?

I still put buys with my portfolios but at a much lower price. I am still happy to collect more shares if people want to sell out of a panic.

China

Some day, the PM of Australia will make an emotional speech at the People Republic Great Hall in Beijing like the one Julia made in the Congress...

China's rare trade deficit today made a huge dent to my portfolios. I was at work when the fall occured. This is the BEST time to buy because it is only temporary. Because I need dough to meet floats (PWN and Musgrave) and entitlements (SBL), I sold off my CPU shares today. It is up 60% (excluding dividends) but that is since 2005. So it isn't a great performance but considering the intervening GFC, it isn't bad.

I collected more BSR at 11.5c, MAT at 28c (but not all shares I bid for) and MNB at 49c. MAT was picked up because I read in AZX's Investor Presentation which showed its EV/Oz Au is the cheapest of the lot on the chart. Well, we will see!

http://imagesignal.comsec.com.au/asxdata/20110216/pdf/01151631.pdf

All the futures are pointing towards a terrible opening for world stock markets. China is that significant now and it won't be long before she sets up a military base here... and be received warmly just like the Yanks. Em....

Phosphate MNB CNLO

This provides good value for phosphate. And it has fallen today.

I put in a low bid for CNLO at 21.5c but the sellers are wanting 30c. Good luck to the sellers.... and cheap buyers.

ELM

It went flying this AM, one stage it was up >20% because of a recommendation by D&D.

Go for GMM instead. The difference is ELM has found potash but GMM is pending.

Options

http://www.libreoffice.org/download/instructions/

http://www.afrsmartinvestor.com/tables.aspx and click Terms of Exercise for Quoted Options

For those who want the latest option tables. Very useful if you want to dabble in options.

LibreOffice is a free software, run by people who were dismissed from Sun Microsystems that used to give the free OpenOffice. I had problem opening the option file from Smart Investor unsing OpenOffice but it was a easy with LibreOffice.

Phosphate

http://www.proactiveinvestors.com.au/companies/news/14534/celamin-holdings-major-holder-lion-selection-acquires-more-shares-in-african-phosphate-play-14534.html

When someone with a deep pocket moves into a small miner, suddenly everyone notices it and everyone wants a bite of the cherry too. Irrespective of how the markets are doing, over a longer period, the richer Chinese and Indians have to eat. You cannot replace phosphate and potash in a fertiliser mix. The urea component can be made using nitrogen from the air.

Today, because China has picked up a cold, ASX is going to do the sneezing! My CNLO is still down and that movement in the shareholder registry won't turn it into a paper profit. Ah... if only I have spare cash.

TRF and EDE, tale of two share tipsters.

Read my posting "What I would buy in down market". I still cannot understand why TRF is so low and has been falling.

Now, just because DH asks the same question in Eureka Report tonight, the share price will jump tomorrow. His readers have to pay... while clubmulgoa.blogsite.com is free. I feel smart to be ahead of him.

I also predicted ASX Guru will gloat about EDE. He deserves that right and he also restated that he expects it to be a 10-bagger. Aussies are smart but they prefer to play sports. Mamma Mia! The technology invented by EDE is brilliant. What I don't know is whether other companies are doing similar invention. By the way, watch TAS. It owns a chunk of EDE and its share price went AWOL.

Remember: buy good shares when people are dumping them

HUN

Banpu, a Thai conglomerate bought Centenial Coal for nearly USD$2 billion recently. Yesterday it bought just over 12% of HUN, a coal explorer in Mongolia, at AUD$1.50 in an unusually expensive placement. HUN closed just under $1.40 this arvo. Now what is interesting is, the share price of Banpu went up by 1%. That means the Thai market considered it a good buy even though it paid much over the prevailing market price. Aussies are good at selling themselves under! Not to Banpu but to the market.

GOA

This is not exploring in India.

The most exciting plot is in PNG. GOA's MC is small.

http://www.newguineagold.ca/announcements/2009/pdf/Crater%20Mtn%20Update%2010Nov09.pdf

Sometimes you read another company's report to realise how good another company is. Watch one less sporting event and read the above. You will make money instead of getting tachycardia.

ELM

How smart I feel! I am ahead of D&D's tip this week. I bought ELM when BHP made an offer to buy Potash Corp. I bought ELM and TRH and both have done well. And even GMM is onto the green zone.

Because D&D, like DH in Eureka Report, has a big following, tomorrow ELM will buy me a few more Paspaley pearls. Ooops! ELM is in my super portfolio :-) It has gone up by 3x, bought between Aug 2010 and Jan 2011.

I assume no one followed me into potash except for one person with GMM. Sad... after all my trumpeting. That is alright. I got to top up with ELMO with less competition. And I also topped up my TRH.

There is also another company looking for potash in Kazakhstan and another in Brazil. Both have gone too berserk for me to even consider. If I want to buy potash, I buy PWN (going to be floated and I get priority allocation because of my holdings in IMA) and GMM.

Sometimes, I think my readers think that I only highlight my great successes. Of course, I have failures but when I look at what I have bought in the last 12 months, there have been a large number of stocks that have gone up by >50%. A few went backwards, but top ups or new stocks have rewarded me very well. I post before or shortly after I buy so you can see for yourself which stocks have kaput or which have performed. I have a lot to thank RB, ASX Guru, Proactive, Minesite's Our Man in Oz, Mineweb, Hotcopper (some contributors) and ASX announcements but not so much DH recently. The newspapers just give me base information.

NYO BSR

Anyone who bought NYO when I wrote the note just recently would be happy with the purchase. Gone up a lot today.

Anyone who bought BSR would not be happy but really how much lower can this stock goes? I put a buy in at 12.5c but missed out. For tomorrow, I have amended it to 11.5c.

ASX down today but I can't figure why. Nikkei and Hang Seng are both up. And DJ as well. And the DAX and FT followed the start of DJ like a puppy, too. Who knows, the ASX could be showing the world the way tomorrow!

EDE

If only all Aussie energy is channeled into brain activities....

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20110309/pdf/41xb78j3dc8p55.pdf

Never mind. Let the rest of Australia wallow in sports while I invest in her intelligence. Bob Brown will be proud, too. In a down market, EDE has gone up in value. You can be certain that this evening ASX Guru will tell you how smart he is for highlighting this stock. And I agree. You can subscribe to him but I get him late, for free legally.

http://asxguru.com.au/2011/01/eden-eenergy-ede-a-breakthrough-technology/

Take a methane molecule, and break it into H2 and start carbon nanotube formation. Burn two H2 with O2 and produce energy without CO2; only 2 water molecules are generated. The carbon goes into industrial usage. Simple and clever and now EDE's team in the US has found a way of making it faster and cheaper and making me richer. Sports do not make me richer, only poorer.

But hydrogen is dangerous and inefficient to use for energy. So Hythane is the compromise. India and the USA are leading the charge.

MNB CNLO

RB at Pure Speculation in The Australian has made me a lot of $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$.

If either of the links don't work, paste in Google search and the correct link will appear.

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/mining-energy/germans-rub-bhps-nose-in-it/story-e6frg9ex-1225959192104

http://imagesignal.comsec.com.au/asxdata/20110222/pdf/01153447.pdf


MNB has made me 75% profit in 5 months but CNLO has made me a loss of 22%. Both are phosphate miners in Africa. CNLO is in Tunisia, which probably explains why I am losing money. Rich Chinese and Indians have to be fed and bloated Yanks and spoilt Europeans are continuing to eat in huge quantities. Of course, Aussies and Kiwis eat and eat and eat and eat; wonder why they bother with playing sports.

BKP

Shale gas is big news in the USA. Companies are changing hands at >USD$1 billion. And that is why SSN has been flying even though its tenements are small but in the right basins. For a long, long time, my SSN was worth a pittance.... and I bought more when it was pittance.

I bought BKP for the same reason and lots of gas is expected based on expert opinion. I bought one day too late and missed out on the SPP. Would have made a much bigger profit! In under 2 months, it has made me 58% profit.

When the fraccing or fracturing technology arrives downunder, Bob Brown will be on a trampoline. But the gas/oil extraction will increase markedly. And Cilla will be able to donate more to the Greens :-(

Smart investors here will move into these companies soon. Read my previous notes on shale gas. I am still at a loss with these companies mostly but I expect the share prices will turn up soon. We are always a few years behind the USA. And maybe a few kgs lighter too.

IMA

I am a long suffering shareholder.... yet this is a company that will keep up its promises for riches.

Today it has gone in a trading halt. It is bad news if it does not explain why. Usually, it is a placement so it will have dilutional effect on existing shareholders. Why ASIC allows it, I don't know. I always think that like GIR, the Chinese companies are so silly not to move on them.

TAS

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20110309/pdf/41xb0h9whmxy8y.pdf

When you have read the above, check where TAS tenement is in that area. It is nearer Olympic Dam. TAS is so cheap because it hasn't hit the bonanza yet. Will it or won't it? That is a AUD$64 billion question. I hold 2 parcels of TAS... and this is a calculated gamble. Loss for many years now because I bought the bulk pre-GFC, based on the same reason as today, ie the possibility of discovering an Olympic Dam-size IOCGU deposit.

All these deposits are very deep in the ground. And require a lot of capital to develop. So if TAS finds a nice lode down there, you can be sure it will be BHP or OZ Minerals that will take it over.

JRV

JRV is worth almost next to nothing but don't ask me why. It has a large scandium deposit but don't ask me what is it used for but it has value. But when it begins the process of developing the deposit, you can be sure someone will notice it.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scandium

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20110309/pdf/41xb0zc9d1mfm9.pdf

JRV has dramatic ups and downs because it is moving between 0.4c and 0.6c. You cannot quote a buy price less than 0.1c per share or option at under 1c. Anyone going for a ride to a rubbish tip or el dorado? It is one or the other!

I didn't bother with research because I bought at 0.5c. There must be billions of JRV shares! When a stock has billions of share, it has difficulty with raising capital. But again don't ask me why. This is the same as for RAU. Somehow, the banks have a very low opinion of these companies. Is it possible that it has already raised dilutional share purchase plans in the past but the capital has not been well utilized?

SPM GXY

Read this article and then go and think about sleeping in the drawer with SPM.

http://www.mineweb.co.za/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page31?oid=122372&sn=Detail&pid=31

Battery technology is one of the big issues for the 21st Century. Vanadium and lithium are going to be hot items in the near future. GXY is struggling since I bought but it is going to be a producer soon. But SPM has gone 79% since I bought 3 months ago. There is another stock I own that is finding vanadium but I can't remember at the moment. Joys of middle age.

GMM

How can a potash stock fall? When I send my note today on GMM, it was 19.5c. It closed at 22c. If you want to buy, of course, you should acted when I sent my note!

I have put in my application for Potash West. Now I have to wait to see whether I will be given any. What I know from history is, if I get any, it will usually rise a little or fall. If I fail to get any, it will often rise and rise and rise and rise. Of course, it isn't always true. I got a great allocation for RMP and made a nice paper profit, up nearly 50% in about a month.

Alpha

When the market goes up, you don't want your net value to just go up along with the index. There are lots of piranhas in the city that do that and charge dump investors (including me) lots of commission for that. I am just too lazy to exit some of those funds but I should make an effort. The returns have not been better than what I have been achieving. When the market is down, they go down too but you still have to pay them commission. They sit in very nice offices and some with nice kitchens, too. And many with beautiful views. And they all have beautiful income.

So today, RRSO, GTE, GTEO, JMS, NTU, SSN, GLF, TRH gave a rosy cheek to my portfolios which I manage. Blue chips look sick compared to these stocks. One portfolio went up >2%, with thanks to RRSO and GTE mostly.

GTE

GTE would make a fantastic trading stock. Up, down, up, down, down, up, down, up, up....
but I never know which way it is going to go. Because I have a big parcel, even a small movement can cause a big change in its value.

It is so far all hype. but it has some scientific proof that suggests minerals in the ground. But Chrysalis had a similar survery and nothing was found. Companies don't pay millions to get an unreliable scanning. So I will wait and see.

AGO

AGO has been falling steadily. I think it is because of China's attempt at slowing its economy but then the Premier said inflation is under control now. The other reason is ex-GIR shareholders taking profit. Hence I have to delay my sale of AGO, at least just some of it.

There is talk amongst analysts that this is company ripe for a takeover. So I am not getting rid of it for a while. It has been well-run by a very impressive board.

GLF

Read my old notes on GLF. It is creeping up and on a down day, it is up! Sweet!

I bought it after listening to the CEO's presentation and, personally, I questioned him whether he is right about a forward projected PE ration of 2. He told me that he expected it to be better than that.

Today, GLF have gone up >120% within 18 months but for a long time, it was a loss. Retrospectively, I should have borrowed to buy it but retrospectology has no place in my investment strategy.

GMM

Anyone contemplating GMM? It has fallen back. I have already topped up so many times and my small spare cash is going to sit there for a while unless I sell other stocks. I don't like having nothing spare in the bank. The dividends and BHP buyback are going to take a few more weeks to materialize.

TRF

Do yourself a favour and read this

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20110308/pdf/41x95kvyn1g50t.pdf

Why is this company so undervalued? Inshallah!

AZM

I don't own shares in AZM but I have always wished I do. You would think that the whole of West Africa is littered with gold by its announcement this AM. Yet, when you tell people to invest in West African miners, most people just let them drift by. I have a lot of them already and so not much point in accumulating another one. The rest are doing well except for... BSR.

What I would buy in down market

Price of gold and oil is up. So don't buy gold and oil stocks that are rocketing ahead. I would look for stocks that investors dump for idiotic reasons.

Unless the boards are lying or fiddling with their announcements, I would go for gold, REEs, oil, potash and graphite stocks that very few people want and many are uninterested, within my portfolio.

Top of my list is BSR. It is the only laggard amongst my West African miners. Why? Ask Him. The share price just won't jump up irrespective of good announcements. And it kept falling back... below my average buy price.

NYO has found good gold deposits in Ethiopia but no one wants this company. High risk? I am down 40% on this. This is my best reason for topping up!

RMR languishing in Greenland with different minerals, including Ta and REEs. My RMR has gone down 20% yet it is usually the reverse after presenting at a Proactive conference!

TAS is higher risk but it is less than 50km from Olympic Dam and latest drilling has already hinted that an IOCGU type deposit could be there; possibly bigger? The chief geologist was involved with the discovery of Olympic Dam. If this one lives up with expectation, then this is THE stock. IF. IF. IF. The biggest idiotic sellers in recent Australian history, that concern me, are MIM which sold for pittance to Xstrata and WMC which sold itself, and therefore Olympic Dam, to BHP. Olympic Dam = 40% of world's known uranium deposit, with Au, Cu, etc, in it. The biggest idiotic buyer of course was Alan Bond who bought Nine from Kerry Packer, a most astute investor. Kerry then bought it back for a song. Alan is no fool because he used other people's money to buy!

HEG, a gold producer but few are interested. It is unlikely to be spectacular though.

TRF, owner of a big chunk of ROL. ROL has gone up but why is TRF going down? Its Fe ore spin-off has also gone up but why is TRF going down? Someone seems to be doing their arithmetic wrongly.

KAR but it is high risk. The share price is around its recent SPP price. Santos Basin in Brazil is hot property with big oil discoveries there by Petrobra. And KAR has decent tenements there. I once was richer with KAR but now just under water.

Always do your own research. But I know what I want to top up...

SSN

DJI is down. POG is up. Oil price is up. So buy gold and oil stocks! That simple; BEFORE Gaddhafi took (yes, past tense) out on his citizens. And before the Saudis riot and before the Bahrainian government collapses.

Imagine buying it at 18c in 2008, to see it dropped to 1.2c. My wife must think I am mad to take up the entitlements. And I even applied to get another 100,000 shares because it was so cheap. At that time, this is not a popular stock at all so I received all my entitlement and all the extra new shares.

The SPP was pitched at 3.4c but I didn't buy because the market price was falling. When it hit 3.1c, I went in and bought some more. I was on my own with no more tipster highlighting it. After RB's recommendation when the stock was at 18c, all subsequent top-ups were done using my own judgment.

Maybe a gasman's head isn't all that clouded by his gases. Yesterday, it was 20.5c and because it has risen in NASDAQ, it is expected to climb further. I have made >600% profit on it; mostly bought less than 18 months ago. Why invest in BHP and RIO, or worse still, the banks?

ABU

At 4c a share, I have collected nearly 30% profit. That is better than being in the red for a long time. In the last 8 months, I have bought 7 parcels of ABU because I firmly believe the drilling results are too good for the share price. And it took such a long time to be proved correct. I have never sold a single parcel. Currently, it looks like I am the sole person holding shares in ABU among those who read my blogsite. Today, with the market having a dramatic fall, ABU stayed firm at 4c.

RMR

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20110307/pdf/41x8s3188p7n5c.pdf

I don't know how long it will take for this company to registrar on investors' radar. The CEO has presented at a Proactive Presentation which I attended... and I asked him a question from the floor. Until it is allowed to mine, it will be rumbling along. But at the moment, it is cheap de la cheap. And the minerals have been uncovered.

NYO

This has been a loss making stock since I bought in the last quarter. Very exciting ground in Ethiopia. But the drilling results have not been bad yet the share price cannot hold. Why? I have no answer. I actually like this kind of stock, mostly because I am not selling and given the opportunity, I would buy more. If idiotic sellers want to get rid of their stocks, I am happy to offload them for them.

I have new contribution added to my cash account this month but it has gone into Potash West float today. This is spun off from IMA. Potash is hot at the moment. ELM with its near extension to its potash deposit in Congo has had another spurt today.

The market is down today and most stocks got a drubbing. But because of PCL, ELM and SSN, I am holding onto a net green figure. But I don't think it will be for much longer.

PCL

It fell down in price recently because Origin sold some of its stake to Apache. I just cannot understand why PCL share price went down because of that. It should have gone up. Apache is big!

And now Tullow has famed into PCL's tenements too. And look at the jump today! Wow!

SSN

This one has bolted along time ago but in 2008, I paid 18c for it. Then came the plunge. For me, this is the best time to top up. Most investors would run a mile from it.

http://www.nasdaq.com/reference/BarChartSectors.stm?page=sectors&sec=top~100~stocks.sec&level=2&title=Top+100+Stock

When the share price fell again after a SPP in June 2010, yes, I bought some more. I didn't participate in the SPP because the price was too close to the market price. Since then, it has been a rise and rise so because you have missed the boat, I don't highlight this stock.

Today, it is the top stock in its sector in NASDAQ. How did I pick it? My good friend RB in Pure Speculation. But just remember, it went down and down after his first recommendation. Sometimes, you have to have faith and patience. One of my investment principles is if the stock is good or has great asset(s), ride with it and top it up especially when the share price has fallen.

Potash

Fortis Mining went up from 21c to nearly $4 in 3 months. STB went up to nearly $7 from 26c but over a longer period.

GMM went down and stayed down for a long time. I yelled out loud and many times but only one other person saw AND acted on my notes. It will be down on Monday because of world sentiment. But when that has settled, I don't know where GMM is going...

RWD had a speeding ticket for its inaccessible potash in Lake Disappointment. The board does not know how to negotiate with the aborigines. Yet the share price jumped up. I firmly believe the natives should get a good cut of the profit and good training with the jobs offered to them. It is THEIR land. I have already ditched my RWD shares over that issue... at a loss.

In some ways, I am glad that I am a gasman. If I were to be a financial adviser, I would be a bankrupt with so few people listening to my recommendations. But at the same time, I am glad few listen... I get to buy with fewer bidders!

HIG

If PNG is Norway, it would be a rich country from its mineral assets. It should be a rich country yet you wonder where all the money has disappeared to.

NCM has a nice lift last week due to a major huge gold discovery in PNG. I wish I have kept my MGO but I sold it for a reason. The profit was small but the share price has gone up a lot since. It, too, has an exciting area where it is exploring. But I have kept my HIG and in fact, I had the opportunity to top it up. Not because it has gone down but because it wasn't going up as much after good announcements. The profit is 'only' 20% over the last 6 months.

Yet, like NCM when more drilling results are available, the more spectacular the finding. Based on their survey and preliminary findings, there should be a lot more glitter to be uncovered. Always better to get in before the announcements. Of course, as usual, be aware that results can be in the negative, too.

MNC

On the 16th March, this company is presenting itself to the Brits. There is a lot of capital swirling around London, much more than in the whole of Australia. And Australia often under-rates its own stocks, especially the small caps.

MNC is not a household name in Australia. Not yet. Its principle 'jewel' is in South America. Lots of it. In fact, it has one of the biggest copper assets within the ASX small caps. You need capital to develop your deposit. When this one starts to produce copper ingots, that is when you will see it rising up the ASX.

It will depend on which story you want to listen to. If China falters badly, then copper price will dip. No, copper price will plunge. If China carries on, but at a slower pace or at the current rate, then copper price will go up. Why? Every analyst that I have read says the supply is not catching up with demand. And China's per capita use of copper is still very low.

The best time to own MNC is not when you competing with people with money who have BECOME aware of the stock and its potential. You want to beat them. And if the market sentiment is horrible and you are not buying in 7 figures (which will affect the price and bring other investors to notice it), it is an opportunity for you to feel like a small-fry contrarian.... like me :-)

Note: I bought in Aug 2010 for 23c, currently 40c. So I have not topped up because it has been a slow rise most of the time. I usually only top up when the share price dips because I am always on the look out for idiotic sellers. Hardly any in MNC :-( However, if spare cash comes along and there isn't anything else to buy, I would consider buying more MNC for its future 'recognized' value.

ABU

Someone pointed out in Hotcopper that one director of ABU spent around $150,000.00 of his money to top up his holdings in ABU at 3.5c.

That writer also highlighted the fact that most directors get free or cheap unlisted options which they convert and then SELL to the market to make a killing. But this time around, the director bought shares for himself from the market. That is a positive sign but come Monday, the dreary outlook for all markets in the world will permeate... even if price of gold remains high.

PWN

This is not listed yet. But if you are an IMA shareholder, here is the link for the prospectus for you to study

http://potashwest.com.au/UserFiles/Potash%20West%20NL%20-%20Prospectus.pdf

Potash is the hot item at the moment. So there is bound to be a stag profit if that is all you are interested in. Of course, nothing is certain. I am certainly applying. Don't waste your cheque if you do not have priority allocation or firm broker allocation. Only $6 million worth of shares to be released.

TRH

When BHP made a bid for Potash Corp, I went shopping for potash stocks listed on the ASX. I had burnt my fingers with Reward. RWD didn't get along with the aborigines and I didn't like that. They deserve a healthy profit and an opportunity to participate in the wealth of their land, including a role in mining. But currently even RWD is getting a run.

Anyway, I bought TRH and ELM. And later GMM.

And soon Potash West, which will be spun off by IMA. I am a shareholder so I will be getting priority allocation.

I topped up when it fell and then announced an Fe ore discovery in SA. Now, I missed out on the Fe ore float. Never mind (it has gone up 100%!). Radar Fe is worth a lot to TRH. Someone calculated after deducting cash and its market worth of Radar Fe shares, TRH's enterprise value is under $200,000. It has potash in USA and recently acquired tenements in Columbia for coal. Please don't bid for TRH.... I am hoping it remains low so that I can buy some more when my cash starts to roll in again!

China's economy

There are many forecasters painting a gloomy picture for China. If an economic turmoil hits China, it spells the end of the Communist Party. No way would the communist party let the country's economy collapse. China has one of the largest reserves in the world. The amount of capital required for infrastructure is huge. So it can spend it way out of the current crisis.

The USA never sits still when oil supply is threatened. So don't expect it to sit idle while the despot has a free run in Libya and goes about demolishing his oil fields in the east. The mad dog of ME won't remain the head of the nation for long. A lot of innocent civilians would have to be killed though before the UN instigates a joint effort to stop the massacre.

While people will desert the market, I am usually one of the few contrarians around if the price of oil stays up for longer. Buy oil stocks and buy gold stocks. But I hope the Libyans won't have to suffer for too long.

Law of Average

DJI cannot keep going up while China is faltering and the price of oil is heading upwards. After a spectacular rise the day before, it has gone down on US Friday. That means Monday will be a wreck for the Aussie puppy.

I spoke to an analyst on Wednesday at the Proactive presentation. He is very concerned about the price of oil killing off US recovery. Robert Gottliebsen from Eureka Report thinks the small caps will get hit badly by a Chinese downturn.

Unless it is exceptional value or has great prospect, I will lie low. If price of gold and tin continues to rise, then gold stocks will stick be on my radar. Potash? It is difficult to stay away from it if it is a float.

LRF

Today, NCM jumped because POG is high and it has discovered a very thick layer of gold, >800m at >2g/t but from >900m deep in PNG. So price of NCM jumped by >5%.

Listen, reluctant listeners, one of the top 5 investments by LRF is... NCM. LRF's discount to NTA is >20%. Mamma Mia! If I am filthily rich, I would buy out LRF and sell all its holdings in the market and make the profit. That easy. The rich gets richer. Actually, you don't need to buy out all. Just buy a controlling stake and then force LRF to liquidate.

GMM

While GMM has risen sharply in the last 2 days, a word of caution. Two points:-

1) The Russian had found potash very nearyby in that area but not IN the tenements that GMM owns. So, nothing has been confirmed yet but potash is expected to be found deeper than at the recent drilling depth.

2) The board does not know why the share price has jumped so much so you have to realise that the share price has risen because of "potash" and "Mongolia". These are the very reasons why you should have bought GMM. As usual, share prices which leap for reasons that are not solid, can collapse suddenly, without any foundation.

I don't intend to sell any GMM yet. I am not a gambler, based on luck, and I expect potash to be found, based on geology. If the thickness is not commercial, then tough luck.

MEI

Andrew McCrea wrote about this company. No big dramatic effect on it unlike other companies he reviewed.

When the company made a recent announcement, it plunged. The drilling result was not fantastic because it was at the periphery of the lode. Would I buy more? I asked Andrew and he said that with the rise of the price of oil, the US market might be badly affected. So the in-between-lines answer is wait and see.

GMM

Of all my readers, only one occasionally buys or sells what I write about. So only one has bought GMM. Just look back to see how many times I have harped on GMM. I have had many top-ups but I cannot understand why the market kept marking it down based on one announcement which was immaterial. The management has even explained why that drilling was done but the damage was done.

Today it is over 22c. I am very happy few people want it and there were a lot of idiotic sellers. My problem is I don't have a lot of spare cash and there are other good value stocks to buy too, plus SPP, floats and entitlements. After a while, it becomes rather despondent when the share price keeps falling and you begin to wonder whether you are wrong. No, not with GMM. I didn't buy because I have already spent a lot on it. So I am a happy lad today with net alpha at lunch time!

The other sole buyer is buying me coffee for telling him to buy RRSO and to delay selling it. I think I will ask for another round of coffee for GMM! Hope he is reading....

CEL

I beg hard enough and was able to buy some CEL today. Not the best price but why worry over 0.5-1c if there is 9 tcf of gas in the ground AFTER exploration?

I am waiting for a major share tipster to highlight that detail. But maybe, every other investor knows that "unconventional" means carbon dioxide but not me nor the CEO reporting the gas.

http://imagesignal.comsec.com.au/asxdata/20110228/pdf/01156103.pdf

Maybe it is gas "in place" and it is not coming out :-(

Deaf and blind

There are some stocks that I harp, repeatedly. But I suspect I have many blind and deaf readers/listeners.

RRSO up over 400%
FNT up over 300%
STB has jumped over Mars
PIR up over 600%
and lots over 50% over a short period of time.

Of course, there are failures too. But quite a few have tasted GIR.

I am still dazzled by CEL figures. How did I miss it over the last 2 days? Is there something I don't understand, is "unconventional" gas worthless, is the market clever or ignorant that the MC is only AUD$34 million for 9tcf of gas???????????????????????????????????????? Read it again 9 tcf, not bcf. My only doubt is the word "unconventional" and I don't understand it.

Open your eyes! I am selling some shares and had to beg for cash from my boss to top up my CEL.

CEL

http://imagesignal.comsec.com.au/asxdata/20110228/pdf/01156103.pdf

How did I miss this? How did the market missed this?

My wife has given me permission to spend a little more on the market. If this remains below 20c this AM, I am going for it. AUD$34 million for 9tcf of gas? Read carefully. Not 9bcf but 9tcf. Anyone reading this? Only be aware that market sentiment is not good at the moment. But if price of oil rises, gas usually goes for a ride with it!

I have only bought CEL recently and it hasn't registered that I should read all CEL announcements. This one is staggering!

SPM

http://www.mineweb.co.za/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page31?oid=121796&sn=Detail&pid=31

This is good news for SPM. It has already nearly doubled for me. And I am expecting more! The best rise will be when the finance is ready, all government requirements are met and the mine construction is ready to go. It takes a long, long time before a discovery becomes an export. SPM's deposit is said to be 'world-class'.

And then there was the news about vanadium batteries.

Proactive Investors Forum: AZX AVA

There were 5 miners presenting; I have shares in AZX and AVA. These are the two I would buy.

MOL has problem raising capital. I have bought and sold MOL in the past; on each occasion I made a small profit but always sold just too early before a significant announcement. It has too many variables.
Share River is good with its manganese story.
Triton has tenements near Tropicana deposit.

AVA has a revival in its coal interest in Botswana because an Indian company has shown interest in a neighbouring coal deposit and willing to pay a lot for it. The problem is a lack of rail transport for bulk commodity and a good port. So AVA has already written off the value of their coal discovery. If more coal is uncovered in that region and a railway track is built, together with a port, then that coal will be very valuable. AVA is itching to sell that coal off as it cannot control the timetable for building the infrastructure.

However, the Kenyan greenstone belt is the jewel now. Lots more gold and base metals are uncovered.... with good surrounding infrastructure. Even his Blackberry works. I like this company.

And AZX is still one of the cheapest when you calculate the EV/oz Au value. That was the reason why I bought it in the first place. And it is expected to uncover a lot more. And it is near Coolgardie. That is in Australia WA :-)

IMA

Very few people like IMA but don't ask me why. Its mineral sand tenements are full of mineral sands. Zircon is very valuable. Iluka made heaps of $$$ out of mineral sands.

And from IMA, I got shares in MAU which has almost doubled.

Those on its register on Jan 27 will get priority for Potash West which is going to be spun off soon. I am definitely buying even if the ASX crashes. And I have two separate parcels of IMA. Some day, I will be able to tell people that you should have bought IMA a long time ago.... Some day soon, I hope.

The IMA head honcho gave a great presentation in 2008 at an AMEC meeting but the share price eventually fell. I topped up again in 2010 thrice, none profitable! Malaysian and Singaporean interest abound in this stock.

TAS

The mere mention of "Olympic Dam" will make people stand up and notice. But no one wants to know about TAS! And today, it says it has found Olympic Dam-type IOCGU system, the market marked it up a little bit. Tiny bit.

It is virtually next door!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! But of course, it takes more than a few drilling results to confirm the size of the find.

Apparently with Olympic Dam, it took 16 drillings before they hit the bonanza load. It is the world biggest deposit of uranium and it has all kinds of minerals in it, Fe, Cu, Au, etc.

I had topped up TAS in the recent past. But I am still at a loss because the bulk was bought before GFC. This is one stock I expect to turn green soon.... And it owns a chunk of EDE but never mind....

ABU

http://www.brr.com.au/event/frame/77006

Spend some time listening to the above. I find it implausible that ABU is below 4c per share and for a long time, it has been performing poorly. Yet, with the depth, grade and size of the tenements, you cannot understand why the market looks on it so unfavourably.

That is actually good for me! I love topping up this kind of company.

DJI down...

The price of oil is up because of the Libyan despot with his delusions. Yet, that guy has passed his use-by date. This is only a short term problem and the Saudis can pump more from their grounds.

What is more fearful is Oman used to be placid place, and it is closer to Saudi Arabia.

I still think this is a short term problem yet the market has been hit hard.

Columbia

This South American nation used to be famous for it FARK guerillas and cocaine. Today, in the ASX, it has regained fame as a platinum and coal producer. Apparently, it was number one for platinum before South Africa took over. I have PGM buying tenements there so it got a lift in its share price because of that. PGM is already in Greenland for platinum group of metals.

And just recently, TRH is moving into Columbia looking for coal. It has been hunting for potash in the USA and that is the main reason why I made a profit out of it. And now Columbia! I could have made more money out of TRH but I didn't participate in its Fe spin-off. Too many stocks so I was not keeping an eye on the float, and not much spare cash!

Meantime, there are other potash companies and platinum companies moving into South America, listed on the ASX, which have done very well just by announcing their move there. Just hype only and it is already profitable for their shareholders. Read the ASX announcements and thou shall have Paspaley Pearls.... or Kailis Pearls.

UNX

This one was a huge loss because I bought at a very high price. I topped up in November 2010 at 29c when it announced a good news. And it continued to pronounce good news yet the market is very indifferent to it. It is really good news. And this evening, even ASX Guru has chipped in.

Its neighbour is subject of a Russian takeover. The top up has already doubled but I am still at a small loss because of the first parcel. Luckily the first parcel is only small.

STB.... and GMM

Wow! It has jumped again today. Now I am onto 19x my buy price. To think, I harboured a loss for a long, long time but with confidence.

Another leap by STB and a speeding ticket from the ASX. Don't be surprised if surreptitiously a big miner appears on the horizon to take over. STB owns the shallowest world-class potash deposit... near a port. And there is a nice nickel deposit to boot in WA.

When the potash is actually sold, then I expect the price to go even higher. This stock is with my super fund portfolio, so no Paspaley pearls for the wife.

Anyone reading this note, be aware that virtually all potash stocks that I know of have gone up and up... except GMM, down and down with its tenements in Mongolia. Unbelievable!!!!!!!!!!! GMM's market capitalisation is under $6 million. It is possible that the board is unrealistic or not truthful about its real potential. Never fully trust any board.